MILITARY INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (MISREP) 25-12-05/054
TIME: 051100Z DEC 2025
SUBJECT: STEPNOHORSK MLD: RF WIDER AXIAL PRESSURE AND CRITICAL COGNITIVE VICTORY IN FINANCIAL DOMAIN. P1 FOCUS SHIFTS TO MULTI-AXIS CONTAINMENT AND STRATEGIC IO DAMAGE CONTROL.
PRIORITY: P1 Multi-Domain Damage Control (Financial/Morale) NLT 051300Z. P2 Contain RF Advance in Vovchansk and Bezymyannoye.
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (Current Operational Picture)
1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
RF kinetic operations are broadening, shifting from purely concentrating effects on the Stepnohorsk MLD to utilizing KAB strikes and localized advances across multiple sectors to maximize UAF fixation and dispersal of reserves.
- Zaporizhzhia Axis (MLD): RF maintains heavy KAB preparatory fires (10:54Z). A reconnaissance UAV was observed targeting Zaporizhzhia city from the southwest (10:47Z), confirming ongoing ISR support for the Stepnohorsk main effort.
- Donetsk Axis (ADVANCE CONFIRMED): RF MoD (10:37Z) claims liberation of Bezymyannoye. This is assessed as a tactical gain supporting ongoing fixing operations, likely by the Yug Group, aimed at preventing UAF reserve repositioning toward Stepnohorsk.
- Kharkiv Axis (ADVANCE CONFIRMED): UAF spokesperson confirmed enemy advancement in Vovchansk (10:58Z). This reactivation of pressure in the north, combined with KAB strikes on Eastern Kharkiv Oblast (10:34Z), is highly concerning and demands immediate P2 reserve assessment.
1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
- Communications: A reported global outage affecting Cloudflare (10:42Z) poses a moderate risk to UAF C2 resilience reliant on commercial internet providers, though it is not assessed as RF-directed kinetic or cyber attack.
- Domestic Environment: The domestic atmosphere is volatile due to high-profile internal security events (TCC personnel murder/funeral, 10:44Z) which RF IO will leverage to undermine national cohesion and recruitment effectiveness.
1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
UAF remains defensively postured at Stepnohorsk (BRAVO-BLOCK). The confirmation of RF tactical advances in both Donetsk and Vovchansk requires the General Staff (J3) to immediately re-evaluate the allocation priority of the last operational reserve element. RF continues to demonstrate synchronization of deep fires (KABs) with localized maneuver (Bezymyannoye/Vovchansk).
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)
2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
Intent: Achieve kinetic success in the Zaporizhzhia/Donetsk axis while generating strategically paralyzing cognitive friction for Ukraine by exploiting the rift in Western financial support and targeting internal UAF morale/governance failures.
- Kinetic Fixation: RF is successfully generating multi-axis pressure (Kharkiv, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia) using high-volume KABs and localized advances. This is intended to force UAF into a dispersed defense posture, preventing the concentration of reserves required to halt the Stepnohorsk MLD.
- Strategic Financial IO Victory: The statement by the Euroclear CEO (10:38Z) that Russian asset expropriation is "unrealistic" directly undermines the entire Western legal strategy for long-term Ukrainian financial aid. This is a critical victory for RF financial lawfare, confirming the viability of the previous "US-EU rift" narrative.
- Information Control: The Russian Ministry of Digital Development prioritizing TASS on the mobile internet "white list" (10:39Z) demonstrates Russia's ongoing capability to manage and sanitize its domestic information domain, insulating its public from potential internal friction (e.g., corruption trials, 10:52Z).
2.2. Command and Control Effectiveness (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
RF strategic C2 remains effective, demonstrated by the seamless, synchronized expansion of operational pressure across axes (Vovchansk, Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk) concurrent with high-impact cognitive operations (Euroclear statement, Polish-Ukrainian friction, 11:02Z).
2.3. Logistics and Sustainment Status (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
RF long-term financial stability is strengthened by the failure of the EU asset expropriation strategy. However, the immediate tactical sustainment challenges supporting the Stepnohorsk MLD (GRAU arsenal score 26.12, rail-tanker dependency) remain critical factors limiting the operational depth of the assault.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking)
3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
UAF remains tactically sound but is experiencing severe compounded vulnerability in the cognitive domain:
- CRITICAL VULNERABILITY (Governance & Morale): The failure to pass the wounded soldier nutrition bill (previous report) coupled with the confirmed high-profile TCC serviceman murder (10:44Z) provides RF IO with material evidence of systemic internal failures in security and support for servicemen.
- Information/PSYOPS Activity: UAF units are actively conducting PSYOPS, dropping leaflets on the RF 16th Army Corps near Kharkiv (10:36Z). This is a necessary countermeasure to maintain initiative in the cognitive domain.
3.2. Resource Requirements and Constraints (CRITICAL - IO/FINANCIAL)
The ability to secure long-term, predictable funding is severely constrained:
- Constraint 1 (IMF Conditionality): Active.
- Constraint 2 (US-EU Rift / Lawfare Failure): The Euroclear CEO statement (10:38Z) confirms that using frozen RF assets as collateral/reparations is legally and politically unsound from the perspective of key European financial institutions. This removes a major strategic funding stream and requires an immediate strategic plan revision (P1 Damage Control).
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain)
The cognitive domain degradation identified in the previous report has been validated and intensified by verifiable RF victories in the financial lawfare space.
| Domain | Finding (FACT/Judgment) | Confidence | Operational Impact |
|---|
| Financial Lawfare Failure | Euroclear CEO confirms Russian asset expropriation proposition is "unrealistic" (10:38Z). | HIGH (Fact) | STRATEGIC PARALYSIS CONFIRMED. This provides material evidence supporting the RF narrative that Western allies are unable to unify on the financial front, creating long-term donor fatigue. P1 Io Priority. |
| Internal Security Friction | TCC serviceman murdered; subsequent funeral and suspect detention (10:44Z, 11:02Z). | HIGH (Fact) | Recruitment/TCC Friction. RF IO will immediately leverage this to undermine conscription efforts and portray Ukraine as internally unstable and unsafe for servicemen outside the frontline. |
| Diplomatic Fissure | Polish official (Sikorski, 11:02Z) criticizes Zelensky's diplomatic protocol. | HIGH (Fact/Judgment) | Minor friction exploited by RF IO to undermine the crucial Polish logistical and diplomatic support path. |
| US NSS Status | Reported inclusion of war cessation in US National Security Strategy (10:58Z). | MEDIUM (Fact/Gap) | Requires immediate clarification. RF IO is likely to frame "cessation" as a demand for immediate territorial compromise, compounding the previous territorial concession narrative. |
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future Operations)
5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA) (Confidence: HIGH)
RF will execute a three-pronged strategy over the next 48 hours:
- Kinetic Dispersal: Maintain the Stepnohorsk MLD as the main effort while escalating pressure/gains in Vovchansk and Donetsk (Bezymyannoye area) to prevent UAF reserve concentration. They seek to force UAF J3 to commit reserves in the North/East, enabling a breakthrough at Stepnohorsk.
- Cognitive Decisive Effort: RF IO will achieve maximum saturation with the synchronized narratives: (a) US-EU Financial Rift validated by Euroclear; (b) Internal Governance failure (Wounded Soldier funding); and (c) Internal Security threat (TCC murder). This IO wave is designed to paralyze decision-making in Kyiv.
- Huliaipole Exploitation: Continue KAB shaping fires and pressure on Huliaipole to set conditions for a possible flank maneuver by elements of the 38th GMRB.
5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA) (Confidence: HIGH)
RF achieves a tactical breakthrough in Stepnohorsk (Phase Line CHARLIE) combined with a rapid, decisive advance in Vovchansk due to UAF reserve over-commitment in the South/East. This strategic dispersal causes J3 to lose tactical flexibility, coinciding with a severe morale collapse among support units triggered by the compounded internal security and governance failures. The outcome is the loss of a key defensive line and paralysis in Kyiv due to the cognitive domain crisis.
5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points (CRITICAL)
| Event | Estimated Time Frame | Decision Point | Status |
|---|
| P1: Multi-Domain Damage Control Launch | NLT 051300Z | STRATCOM, MoD, and Executive Office must launch a synchronized counter-narrative addressing ALL three major friction points (Wounded Soldier, Euroclear Failure, TCC Murder/Security). | CRITICAL IO (P1) |
| P2: Vovchansk Reserve Commitment | NLT 051500Z | J3 must decide if the Vovchansk advance (10:58Z) requires an immediate partial reserve commitment, or if local UAF forces can contain the penetration. | CRITICAL MANEUVER (P2) |
| Financial Strategy Revision | NLT 051800Z | Executive Office/MoF must publicly announce a credible, alternative financing strategy given the failure of the frozen asset expropriation method. | CRITICAL GOVERNANCE |
6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS AND COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS
| Priority | Gap Description | Required Action | Confidence Impact |
|---|
| P1 (CRITICAL - IO/DIPLOMATIC) | Authentic text/context of the US NSS (Nov 2025). Specifically, the wording regarding "completion/cessation" of the war. | DIPLOMATIC/OSINT Tasking: Urgent diplomatic verification to obtain definitive text for robust refutation of RF spin. | CRITICAL |
| P2 (CRITICAL - MANEUVER) | Extent and commitment level of RF forces advancing in Vovchansk. Is this a limited fixing attack or a major MLD reactivation? | IMMEDIATE ISR Tasking: Focus IMINT/SIGINT on Vovchansk-area approach routes to quantify RF battalion strength and equipment. | CRITICAL |
| P3 (CRITICAL - FINANCIAL LAWFARE) | Specific policy or legal hurdles Euroclear cites regarding asset expropriation. | HUMINT/DIPLOMATIC Tasking: Liaison with EU legal experts and financial officials to understand the exact constraint and potential legislative bypasses. | CRITICAL |
| P4 (MANEUVER) | Precise UAF holding status at Bezymyannoye and the extent of the claimed RF penetration. | IMMEDIATE ISR Tasking: High-resolution IMINT/Recon over the Bezymyannoye area (Donetsk) for ground truth verification. | HIGH |
7. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS
7.1. Strategic Communications and Domestic Morale Stabilization (STRATCOM / Executive Office)
ACTION: EXECUTE P1 MULTI-DOMAIN DAMAGE CONTROL. Prioritize internal morale stabilization.
- Neutralize Morale Killers (NLT 051300Z): The President/Executive Office must issue simultaneous, high-profile communications:
- Wounded Soldier Decree: Announce immediate funding reallocation (via executive decree or reserve fund) to resolve the nutrition failure. Frame this as immediate action correcting bureaucratic oversight.
- Internal Security: Publicly condemn the TCC murder, announce the successful and swift detention of the suspect, and guarantee maximum judicial penalty. This must be framed as reinforcing the rule of law and protecting servicemen.
- Counter Financial IO: Acknowledge the complexity of utilizing frozen assets (Euroclear statement) but immediately pivot to emphasizing the confirmed, operational military aid (e.g., Patriot deal). Announce an urgent task force to develop alternative long-term financing mechanisms (e.g., war bonds, structured state asset privatization).
7.2. Operational Maneuver and Fires (J3 / J2)
ACTION: ADJUST RESERVE ALLOCATION TO COUNTER MULTI-AXIS FIXATION AND CONFIRM VDV C2 TARGETING.
- Vovchansk Assessment (P2): J3 must immediately allocate limited reconnaissance forces or drone assets to Vovchansk. DO NOT commit the final operational reserve until P2 gap (RF intent/strength) is resolved. If the Vovchansk advance is assessed as a major breakthrough attempt, the reserve must be split between Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhia.
- Priority Targeting (VDV C2 - Stepnohorsk): Maintain P2 targeting priority on the 7th VDV C2 Node. The need for a kinetic break in the Stepnohorsk MLD is heightened by the new pressures on other axes. A successful decapitation strike remains the best way to buy operational time for internal stabilization.
- PSYOPS Sustainment: Continue the leaflet drop PSYOPS (10:36Z) activity on the Kharkiv axis. Utilize confirmed RF advances (Bezymyannoye/Vovchansk) in subsequent PSYOPS messaging to frame RF losses as unsustainable despite tactical gains.
