Situation Report

MILITARY INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (MISREP) 25-12-05/053

TIME: 051045Z DEC 2025 SUBJECT: STEPNOHORSK MLD: RF KINETIC/COGNITIVE SYNCHRONICITY ESCALATES. CRITICAL THREAT FROM COMPOUNDED TRANSATLANTIC FINANCIAL RIFT AND INTERNAL GOVERNANCE VULNERABILITY. PRIORITY: P1 Multi-Domain Damage Control (Financial/Morale) NLT 051300Z. P2 Stepnohorsk VDV C2 Decapitation.

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1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (Current Operational Picture)

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

Kinetic operations are intensifying, focusing overwhelming firepower on the Zaporizhzhia axis (Stepnohorsk MLD) and key logistics nodes.

• Zaporizhzhia Axis (CRITICAL): Sustained high-intensity air assault continues. UAF Air Force confirms multiple KAB launches targeting the operational triangle of Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk, and Dnipropetrovsk (10:06Z). RF sources are specifically prioritizing the "Battle for Huliaipole" (10:10Z), indicating an attempt to secure or bypass the crucial eastern flank of the Stepnohorsk defense, likely involving elements intended to link with the previously reported 38th GMRB activity.
• Donetsk Axis: Continued fixing fires via KAB launches (10:11Z) maintain pressure and prevent UAF reserve repositioning.
• Northern Axis (Sumy): UAV reconnaissance observed northwest of Vilshanka, heading NW (10:15Z). Assessment remains that RF is conducting intelligence preparation for potential stand-off strikes or diversionary operations, though no immediate ground threat is assessed.

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)

• Infrastructure: Power constraints have locally eased, with Poltava Oblast canceling emergency light outages (10:04Z). This provides a marginal benefit to regional C2 resilience.
• Economic: Global crude oil prices are confirmed to be rising (10:06Z). This strengthens RF long-term financial stability and export revenue, directly countering the effects of Western energy sanctions.

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

UAF Forward Defense Elements (BRAVO-BLOCK) maintain tactical integrity against the VDV urban penetration in Stepnohorsk. RF forces are utilizing heavy aerial munitions (KAB) and mechanized/VDV light units, demonstrating operational willingness to incur severe attrition for immediate political/military gain.

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2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

Intent: Secure a tactical foothold in Stepnohorsk and simultaneously achieve strategic cognitive victory by fracturing Western financial support and exploiting UAF internal governance friction.

• Kinetic Synchronization: RF is executing a coordinated KAB barrage across three regions bordering the MLD (10:06Z) while publicly emphasizing pressure on Huliaipole (10:10Z). This is designed to maximize confusion regarding the main axis of exploitation and degrade UAF deep logistics.
• Strategic IO Weaponization: RF state media (TASS) and affiliated war correspondents are actively amplifying European media reports (El País) suggesting Ukraine must accept territorial concessions (10:09Z, 10:27Z). This narrative is synchronized with ongoing RF ground operations to demoralize UAF forces and condition international opinion for a negotiated settlement favorable to Moscow.
• Global Projection: The continued high-profile media coverage of the Putin-Modi talks (10:15Z) and the launch of RT India (10:27Z) are clear strategic moves to project global stability and counter Western isolation efforts.

2.2. Command and Control Effectiveness (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

RF strategic C2 maintains effectiveness, demonstrated by the seamless synchronization of kinetic pressure (KAB strikes) with escalating multi-layered IO attacks (financial lawfare, territorial concession narrative). Internal messaging confirms a focus on stable leadership (e.g., claiming to repel cyberattacks on Putin’s communications, 10:03Z).

2.3. Logistics and Sustainment Status (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)

The reported rise in global oil prices (10:06Z) ensures strategic revenue flow, mitigating long-term RF financial risk. However, immediate tactical sustainment challenges identified in the previous daily summary (GRAU arsenal score 26.12, rail-tanker dependency) remain critical gaps in RF operational capability, limiting the duration and depth of the MLD without immediate resupply.

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3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking)

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

Tactical defensive units remain cohesive. UAF counter-intelligence capability is confirmed (previous report). However, the internal political front shows severe vulnerabilities:

• CRITICAL VULNERABILITY (Governance Failure): Legislative efforts to improve nutrition for wounded servicemen during rehabilitation failed to pass in parliament (10:20Z). This presents a severe, tangible vulnerability to morale and a catastrophic failure in the information domain, which RF will leverage immediately. (Dempster-Shafer Belief: 0.15)
• Morale Boost: The public announcement of state honors for key civil society figures (e.g., Sternenko, 10:22Z) serves as a limited counter-narrative against internal RF IO efforts.

3.2. Resource Requirements and Constraints (CRITICAL)

The strategic financial constraint has compounded dramatically.

• Constraint 1 (IMF Conditionality): Still active. Financing is dependent on complex domestic legislation.
• Constraint 2 (US-EU Rift): Bloomberg reports the US is demanding the EU halt the payment of a major "reparations" credit (frozen Russian assets) to Ukraine (10:25Z).
  • Impact: This creates a deep transatlantic fissure over funding mechanisms, far more damaging than the previous general "budget deficit" narrative. It paralyzes a major, long-term funding stream and gives RF unparalleled IO leverage regarding Western disunity and abandonment.

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4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain)

The cognitive domain is undergoing rapid deterioration due to compounding, verifiable negative events.

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5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future Operations)

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA) (Confidence: HIGH)

RF forces will maintain the Stepnohorsk MLD, focusing on the high-attrition urban fight while simultaneously escalating the Huliaipole/flank pressure via KABs and aggressive maneuver claims. The decisive effort shifts heavily into the cognitive domain for the next 48 hours:

1. Maximum IO Exploitation: RF will dedicate resources to saturate global and domestic channels with the failure to fund wounded servicemen narrative, coupling it with the US-EU financial rift narrative.
2. Sustained Kinetic Shaping: KAB strikes will continue across the tri-border area (Zaporizhzhia/Donetsk/Dnipropetrovsk) to degrade UAF ability to maneuver reserves or establish fixed C2 nodes.

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA) (Confidence: HIGH)

RF achieves rapid tactical success in Stepnohorsk (e.g., VDV securing Phase Line CHARLIE) coinciding with a severe, self-inflicted morale crisis stemming from the wounded soldier nutrition vote. This immediate internal political failure, amplified by RF IO and compounded by the high-level financial disagreement between the US and EU, forces the UAF General Staff to divert attention and resources toward stabilizing the domestic cognitive environment and political apparatus, leaving tactical commanders starved of necessary resources and political mandate during the peak of the VDV assault.

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points (CRITICAL)

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6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS AND COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS

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7. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS

7.1. Strategic Communications and Domestic Morale Stabilization (STRATCOM / Executive Office)

ACTION: EXECUTE P1 MULTI-DOMAIN DAMAGE CONTROL IMMEDIATELY.

1. Resolve Wounded Soldier Morale: The highest political echelon must issue an immediate, public, and unequivocal decree overriding the parliamentary failure regarding wounded soldier nutrition NLT 051300Z. Frame this action as correcting a bureaucratic error and reaffirming commitment to the troops. This neutralizes the most potent immediate RF IO weapon.
2. Financial Deconfliction (US/EU/IMF): STRATCOM must pivot to address the process of complex funding. A high-level statement must acknowledge diplomatic differences (US/EU loan) but emphasize unified, continuing aid flows (e.g., the confirmed Patriot deal). Frame IMF conditionality as strengthening Ukraine's long-term sovereign position, not abandonment.
3. Counter-Concession Narrative: Utilize diplomatic channels to secure statements from key European capitals (Germany, France, UK) explicitly rejecting the territorial concession narrative amplified by TASS and re-asserting support for UAF sovereignty.

7.2. Operational Maneuver and Fires (J3 / J2)

ACTION: DECAPITATE VDV C2 AND HARDEN INTERNAL DEFENSES AGAINST IO/KINETIC STRIKES.

1. Priority Targeting (VDV C2): Maintain P2 targeting priority on the 7th VDV C2 Node. Utilize all available precision kinetic assets immediately upon confirmation. A successful decapitation strike will buy UAF 12-24 hours of operational respite in Stepnohorsk, allowing internal governance issues to be addressed.
2. Force Protection and Internal Security (C2 Nodes): Given the failure of the nutrition vote (internal friction) and the confirmed threat of RF IO weaponizing domestic failure, J3 must immediately brief all operational HQs (Battalion level and above) on the vulnerability. Emphasize that internal political friction must not translate into loss of mission focus.
3. Huliaipole Flank Defense: Allocate sufficient anti-armor/infantry teams to counter potential flank exploitation attempts by the 38th GMRB/supporting elements targeting Huliaipole (10:10Z claims). Prioritize intelligence efforts (P6) to confirm the intent (fixing vs. breakthrough).