MILITARY INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (MISREP) 25-12-05/051
TIME: 051000Z DEC 2025
SUBJECT: STEPNOHORSK MLD: VDV URBAN INITIATION. CRITICAL WESTERN FINANCIAL FRICTION IMPACTING STRATEGIC IO.
PRIORITY: P1 C2 Resilience Enforcement and Immediate Information Domain Counter-Offensive.
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (Current Operational Picture)
1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
The decisive kinetic engagement has entered the urban/suburban environment of Stepnohorsk (Zaporizhzhia Axis). RF offensive operations are now characterized by:
- Stepnohorsk MLD (CRITICAL): RF sources claim the 7th Guards Air Assault Division (Mountain) (VDV) is engaged in urban "clearance" operations (09:25Z). While the claim of "clearance" is likely premature, this confirms VDV elements are committed to the main effort and that the assault sequence has moved beyond the initial mine-breaching phase.
- Huliaipole Fixing Effort: Confirmed high-volume kinetic engagement. RF sources report successful FAB-500 strikes targeting UAF Battalion Command and Observation Posts (PVDs) of the 33rd Separate Mechanized Brigade (OSHP) in Huliaipole (09:28Z), confirming the intent to attrit and fix UAF defenses on the northern flank.
- Kharkiv Axis: Continued KAB saturation reported across Eastern Kharkiv Oblast (09:32Z), sustaining pressure and preventing C2/logistical consolidation in the Northeast.
- Donetsk Axis: RF MoD claims the capture of Bezymyannoye, DPR (09:33Z). This is a localized claim, likely intended to project momentum, but requires immediate BDA to assess its tactical significance.
1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
The primary environmental constraint is the continued degradation of Ukrainian energy infrastructure. This vulnerability is compounded by an independent, non-adversarial event:
- Global C2 Risk (NEW): Reports of a major, widespread Cloudflare internet service outage (09:15Z). This globally widespread disruption may affect UAF C2 redundancy measures relying on commercial satellite or fiber optic backup channels, especially if the primary, grid-dependent systems are already compromised by RF deep strikes.
1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
- Stepnohorsk: UAF elements (BRAVO-BLOCK reserve and forward defense) are engaged in high-intensity close combat.
- Control Measures: The immediate execution of C2 redundancy protocols (generators, satellite terminals) is the highest priority control measure, particularly in light of the compounded power/internet vulnerability.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)
2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
Intention (Confirmed Execution): Achieve mechanized/infantry penetration and hold a foothold in Stepnohorsk while simultaneously disrupting UAF C2 through deep strikes and leveraging Western financial friction via IO.
- Decisive Force Commitment (7th VDV): The commitment of 7th VDV elements in the urban fight confirms RF willingness to absorb higher attrition rates for operational momentum. This unit is historically focused on maneuver and requires prompt neutralizing or fixation.
- Targeting Priority: Confirmed use of FABs against Huliaipole PVDs indicates precision targeting against tactical UAF C2 and consolidation points (09:28Z).
2.2. Logistics and Sustainment Status (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
The confirmation of VDV elements in the active assault (Stepnohorsk) provides crucial context for the previous report's finding of VDV logistical strain (basic provisions/fundraising, 09:03Z).
- Judgment: Tactical logistical friction appears to be limited to non-lethal and specific supplies, not the strategic inability to sustain mechanized assault forces or ammunition throughput. This remains a high-value vulnerability for PSYOPS/Interdiction, but it will not prevent the current assault wave.
2.3. Command and Control Effectiveness (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
RF strategic C2 is effective in coordinating the multi-domain assault. However, internal morale friction is confirmed:
- Internal Tension (FACT): Captured or leaked soldier testimony highlights extreme pressure on junior RF commanders to execute high-risk orders, with refusal leading to punitive action ("...they like dogs, they are given a task, they do it...") (09:09Z).
- Judgment: This indicates a centralized command structure prioritizing political objectives (i.e., seizing Stepnohorsk) over tactical reality or force conservation, which can be exploited for tactical maneuver and PSYOPS.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking)
3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
UAF forces are defensively committed at the decisive point (Stepnohorsk) and maintaining aggressive counter-attrition operations in the South.
- Southern Attrition: Defense Forces of Southern Ukraine report high enemy attrition: 350+ personnel and over 50 units of equipment destroyed in 24 hours (09:18Z). This rate confirms effective UAF fires coordination and defensive effectiveness.
- Counter-Intelligence Success: SBU confirmed the apprehension of a Russian agent attempting vehicle sabotage in Mykolaiv (09:19Z), securing a critical rear area logistical hub.
3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
- SUCCESS: HUR unit "PRYMARY" claimed successful drone strike on an RF Su-24 bomber at an airbase in Crimea (09:18Z). This operation, following the previous Kacha strike, sustains the temporary degradation of RF Southern AD/Airpower projection.
- SETBACK: RF establishment of a fighting foothold in Stepnohorsk's immediate vicinity constitutes a tactical setback, initiating costly urban combat.
3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints (CRITICAL)
The primary constraint is the emerging strategic financial uncertainty.
- Constraint (Financial Lawfare): The clear and confirmed US position opposing the immediate utilization of frozen Russian assets for a large "reparations loan" (09:05Z, 09:20Z) creates strategic uncertainty regarding long-term, large-scale Western financing mechanisms.
- Requirement: Immediate STRATCOM counter-narrative and diplomatic synchronization are required to prevent this friction from being weaponized by RF as a sign of permanent Western abandonment.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain)
| Domain | Finding (FACT/Judgment) | Confidence | Operational Impact |
|---|
| Western Financial Division (CRITICAL) | US urged EU states to oppose the "reparations loan" using frozen assets, preferring to hold the assets for peace negotiation leverage (Bloomberg reports, 09:05Z). | HIGH (Fact/Confirmed Judgment) | Immediate Strategic Risk. Fuels the RF narrative of Western division and preconditions for peace talks favoring Russia. Direct threat to UAF financial stability narrative. |
| RF Strategic IO Narrative | RF sources amplify the US position, claiming the US National Security Strategy priority is the "cessation of military action in Ukraine" (09:30Z). | HIGH (Fact) | Weaponizes the US financial position to create pressure on UAF leadership to negotiate under duress. |
| UAF Resilience/Morale | Official and public channels celebrate International Volunteer Day, showcasing high civil-military cohesion and collective effort (09:10Z, 09:11Z). | HIGH (Fact) | Strong internal counter-narrative to RF kinetic pressure. |
| RF Internal Morale | Soldier testimony reveals coercive command climate ("...if they don't do it, they are screwed...") (09:09Z). | MEDIUM (Fact) | High value tactical intelligence and PSYOPS opportunity. |
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future Operations)
5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA) (Confidence: HIGH)
RF forces, led by committed VDV elements (likely 7th VDV), will maintain the high-intensity assault within Stepnohorsk for the next 6-12 hours, focusing on disrupting UAF tactical C2 through local EW/Sniping while KAB strikes fix external UAF reserves (Huliaipole, Kharkiv). The immediate objective is a shallow, defensible breach sufficient for Putin to claim a strategic victory before the end-of-year address cycle.
5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA) (Confidence: HIGH)
RF achieves tactical penetration deep enough to utilize pre-positioned or air-dropped reconnaissance/sabotage groups (Spetsnaz/VDV) to target the C2 elements managing the forward Stepnohorsk defense. Simultaneous and successful follow-up strikes exploit the C2/energy outages to cut primary communications between the Zaporizhzhia Operational Group and High Command, leading to isolated company-level resistance and a collapse of coordinated defense.
5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points (CRITICAL)
| Event | Estimated Time Frame | Decision Point | Status |
|---|
| Stepnohorsk Urban BDA/Penetration Assessment | NLT 051130Z | J3/J2 MUST confirm the extent of 7th VDV's penetration and potential for a breakout maneuver. Urban fighting requires immediate and specific reinforcement allocation (e.g., specialized counter-CQB assets). | CRITICAL MANEUVER |
| C2 Redundancy Verification (Network Status) | NLT 051100Z | J6 must report the functional impact of both the RF deep strikes and the global Cloudflare outage on UAF primary and secondary command networks. | CRITICAL C2 DISSOCIATION |
| Financial IO Counter-Offensive Launch | NLT 051200Z | STRATCOM MUST launch coordinated response debunking the 'peace leverage' narrative and reaffirming EU/US commitment (using the Patriot deal announcement). | CRITICAL STRATEGIC IO |
| Commitment of Tactical Reserve (Stepnohorsk) | NLT 051300Z | If 7th VDV secures the Phase Line BRAVO breach beyond a 500m depth, J3 must commit the nearest tactical reserve element for immediate counter-attack and localization. | DECISIVE KINETIC MOMENT |
6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS AND COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS
| Priority | Gap Description | Required Action | Confidence Impact |
|---|
| P13 (CRITICAL - MANEUVER) | Precise status and location of 7th VDV lead elements in Stepnohorsk (CQB map). | IMMEDIATE ISR Tasking: Re-task all Group 1/2 UAVs for live-feed FMV focusing on the urban interface and RF reinforcement routes. | CRITICAL |
| P6 (CRITICAL - C2) | Functional status of C2 network redundancy following grid failure AND Cloudflare outage. | J6/J2 Tasking: Immediate assessment of military VSAT/Starlink resilience against the compounded network failures. Determine if any military data relay relies on the compromised commercial infrastructure. | CRITICAL |
| P5 (HIGH - IO/LOGISTICS) | Identification of specific RF VDV units involved in fundraising/logistical appeals. | OSINT/HUMINT: Correlate VDV fundraising complaints with the 7th VDV units confirmed in Stepnohorsk to maximize PSYOPS targeting effectiveness. | HIGH |
| P7 (NEW - DEEP STRIKE) | BDA confirmation and assessment of damage to the Su-24 at the Crimean airbase (09:18Z). | IMMEDIATE ISR/HUMINT Tasking: Reconfirm the success of the GUR strike to validate the continued AD/airpower suppression in the South. | MEDIUM |
7. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS
7.1. Operational Maneuver and Force Protection (J3 / J7)
ACTION: HARDEN C2 AND ISOLATE VDV URBAN ELEMENTS.
- C2 Resilience (CRITICAL): J6/J7 must issue an Immediate Communications Stand-down Order for non-essential digital communications. Switch operational C2 entirely to fully redundant, off-grid systems (VSAT/HF Radio/Generators). Assume all commercial internet links are compromised or disabled until verification is complete.
- Stepnohorsk Counter-CQB (IMMEDIATE): Utilize specialized urban combat teams and high-rate-of-fire weapons (HMG, AGL) to create kill zones against VDV infantry attempting to consolidate inside buildings. Prioritize isolating mechanized support from dismounted VDV elements.
- UGV Counter-Defense (Unchanged): Continue prioritizing FPV drones and low-cost kinetic means against "Kuryer" UGVs to prevent further breach exploitation.
7.2. Fires and Targeting (J2 / J3)
ACTION: INTERDICT VDV LOGISTICS AND COUNTER KAB FORCES.
- Counter-Mobility Fires: Immediately task artillery and MLRS units with high-explosive saturation of VDV reinforcement and disengagement routes leading into Stepnohorsk, focusing on bottlenecks (bridges, key intersections) to prevent resupply and egress.
- Target KAB Launch Platforms (Exploiting Kacha Success): Utilize long-range strike assets (missiles/UAVs) to target known or suspected forward aviation operating bases supporting the continuous KAB strikes against Kharkiv/Huliaipole. Exploit the temporary AD gap.
7.3. Strategic Communications and Lawfare (STRATCOM / J7 / Legal)
ACTION: NEUTRALIZE US FINANCIAL FRICTION NARRATIVE.
- Strategic Financial Counter-Offensive (IMMEDIATE): STRATCOM must launch a unified, high-level diplomatic communication (via MFA/Presidential Office) reaffirming the strong multilateral support (citing the recent Patriot deal) and framing the financial asset discussion as complex, but ultimately committed to Ukrainian victory. Do not allow the RF narrative of "peace conditioning" to take hold.
- Internal RF Morale Exploitation (PSYOPS): Use the confirmed soldier testimony (09:09Z) to create targeted PSYOPS materials focusing on the VDV. Frame RF commanders as sacrificing elite troops due to incompetence and political pressure, contrasting this with the alleged lack of basic provisions (09:03Z). Target VDV social media groups and families.
