MILITARY INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (MISREP) 25-12-05/049
TIME: 050900Z DEC 2025
SUBJECT: STEPNOHORSK MLD: KINETIC SATURATION SUSTAINED. NORTHEAST INFRASTRUCTURE TARGETING INITIATED. C2 DEFENSE CRITICAL.
PRIORITY: P13 BDA RESOLUTION AND IMMEDIATE COUNTER-ATTRITION AD DEPLOYMENT TO KHARKIV AXIS.
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (Current Operational Picture)
1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
The decisive operation remains focused on the Stepnohorsk corridor (Zaporizhzhia Axis). Air Force reports confirm continued, high-volume Guided Aerial Bomb (KAB) launches targeting Zaporizhzhia Oblast (08:15Z). RF state media claims of surrounding Huliaipole (08:21Z) are assessed as premature IO but confirm the enemy's aggressive kinetic objective.
- New Attrition Front (Northeast): Confirmed KAB launches targeting Kharkiv Oblast from the North (08:19Z) and the movement of a new group of UAVs from Donetsk towards Kharkiv (08:31Z). This confirms RF intent to expand the deep strike infrastructure campaign beyond Sumy and Poltava.
- Lyman/Vovchansk: Tactical engagements confirmed in the Lyman/Vovchansk sector (08:31Z), reinforcing the assessment that RF is maintaining low-level pressure on multiple lines to fix UAF reserves.
- Deep Strike Domain (UAF Success): GUR unit "PRYMARY" confirms 8 successful strikes on Russian military targets in Crimea over the past two weeks, leveraging the AD gap created by the Kacha Airfield strike.
1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
Clear conditions remain favorable for RF ISR and precision strike platforms (KAB, UAVs). The environmental factor of power grid degradation is now critical in the Northeast (Kharkiv) and Central (Poltava/Sumy) oblasts, directly threatening operational C2 continuity in the rear echelon.
1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
- Stepnohorsk: UAF BRAVO-BLOCK reserve remains engaged, sustaining defensive integrity despite intense KAB attrition.
- Air Defense: AD assets are highly tasked across Zaporizhzhia, and now require immediate reallocation assessment to counter the confirmed KAB/UAV threat to key infrastructure in Kharkiv.
- UAF Specialized Units: Drone units (SBS/Madyar) maintain a high operational tempo, successfully engaging RF targets at the tactical level (08:18Z).
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)
2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
Intention (Validated and Expanded): Execute a synchronized multi-domain assault:
- Kinetic Decisive Action: Achieve breach/breakthrough at Stepnohorsk (Zaporizhzhia MLD).
- Kinetic Attrition Expansion: Paralyze Ukrainian C2 and energy sustainment by simultaneously targeting central and northeastern oblasts (Kharkiv now explicitly targeted).
- IO/Lawfare Integration: Target UAF logistics and support networks via economic warfare (Sevastopol nationalization) concurrent with kinetic operations.
Recent Tactical Changes/Adaptations:
- Infrastructure Priority Shift: Immediate focus on Kharkiv/Northeast signals RF intent to neutralize UAF maneuverability and C2 integrity across the entire eastern half of the country, preventing lateral reserve movement towards Stepnohorsk.
- Internal Security Diversion (Judgment): FSB operations against alleged terrorism (Bashkiria, 08:17Z) and criminal gangs (Novosibirsk, 08:20Z) indicate that internal RF security issues are consuming resources (personnel, focus) that would otherwise support the front line.
2.2. Logistics and Sustainment Status (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
RF logistics remain sufficient for the immediate MLD assault (48-72 hours).
- Strategic Industrial Base: The continued, active recruitment drive for the Alabuga SEZ (UAV production facility, 08:08Z) confirms Russia's long-term commitment to self-sufficiency in drone warfare and sustained industrial mobilization. This is a critical strategic indicator for 2026 planning.
2.3. Command and Control Effectiveness (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
RF C2 remains robust in coordinating the MLD and deep strike complex. However, UAF POW testimony (08:11Z) detailing internal unit discipline issues (threats of execution for refusal) suggests localized command failures and deep friction between command staff and front-line combatants.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking)
3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
UAF posture is stable but subject to severe, multi-axis kinetic and cognitive pressure.
- Strategic Resilience: The confirmation of a life sentence for a key collaborator (08:30Z) provides high-value operational resilience, reinforcing the rule of law and countering RF IO claims of institutional instability (NABU/Skorokhod case).
- Contested Domain Success: GUR and SBS tactical drone forces are exploiting operational windows (Kacha AD degradation) to execute deep strikes and maintain high attrition on RF assets.
3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
- Success: GUR PRYMARY operational results confirmed. UAF morale bolstered by successful war crimes prosecution.
- Setback: Energy infrastructure remains highly vulnerable, confirmed by new KAB/UAV threats to Kharkiv. The MLD at Stepnohorsk remains the decisive kinetic point, necessitating the allocation of virtually all operational reserves.
3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
- Short-Range Air Defense (SHORAD) Reallocation: The primary constraint is AD asset prioritization. Immediate decision required on diverting mobile SHORAD assets to protect C2 and energy nodes in Kharkiv Oblast against the new confirmed threat vector.
- Intelligence Exploitation: Full exploitation of the POW testimony regarding internal RF discipline is required for targeted PSYOPS development.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain)
| Domain | Finding (FACT/Judgment) | Confidence | Operational Impact |
|---|
| IO Exploitation (UAF) | DShV releases POW testimony detailing Russian commanders threatening execution ("obnulit") for refusal to obey orders. (08:11Z) | HIGH (Fact) | Highest Value IO Asset. Directly targets RF troop morale, recruitment, and internal cohesion. |
| Lawfare/Resilience (UAF) | Prosecutor General confirms life sentence for high-level state traitor. (08:30Z) | HIGH (Fact) | Counter-narrative to RF corruption claims; reinforces institutional strength at a critical time. |
| RF Economic Attrition | Russia nationalizes property of 11 companies in Sevastopol aiding UAF/GUR. (08:15Z) | HIGH (Fact) | Confirms RF intent to apply economic pressure/retaliation against UAF support networks in occupied territories. |
| RF Internal Friction | Confirmed FSB arrests for theft from military (Novosibirsk) and counter-terrorism (Bashkiria). (08:17Z, 08:20Z) | MEDIUM (Fact) | Confirms marginal degradation of RF internal security and the distraction of resources away from the primary front. |
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future Operations)
5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA) (Confidence: HIGH)
RF will maintain kinetic saturation (KAB/UAV) on the Stepnohorsk MLD corridor for the next 24 hours, leveraging the "Kuryer" UGV technology to attempt a breach of Phase Line BRAVO NLT 051200Z. Concurrently, RF will intensify deep strikes on C2/energy infrastructure in Kharkiv Oblast, attempting to replicate the power outages achieved in Sumy/Poltava, thereby inhibiting UAF ability to coordinate reserve movement from the northeast to the Zaporizhzhia axis. The 38th GMRB will continue fixing actions at Myrnohrad/Huliaipole.
5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA) (Confidence: HIGH)
RF achieves a coordinated tactical breach at Stepnohorsk and a C2 disruption in Kharkiv (mass power outage affecting military communications). RF forces exploit the chaos by immediately committing VDV or secondary reserve forces through the Stepnohorsk breach, threatening to sever the main defense lines before UAF tertiary reserves can be effectively mobilized or coordinated from the paralyzed northern rear.
5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points (CRITICAL)
| Event | Estimated Time Frame | Decision Point | Status |
|---|
| Immediate MCLC BDA Confirmation (P13) | NLT 050945Z | J3/J2 MUST confirm status of the lead MCLC elements (incl. Kuryer) and their effect on the anti-mobility layer. | CRITICAL MANEUVER |
| Kharkiv AD Reallocation Decision | NLT 051000Z | J3/J7 must decide on the minimal diversion of mobile SHORAD/AD batteries to protect key energy/C2 hubs in Kharkiv Oblast against the confirmed KAB/UAV threat. | CRITICAL C2 DEFENSE |
| Myrnohrad Stabilization Commitment (P1) | NLT 051030Z | J3 must commit the stabilizing force to prevent flanks from collapsing, thereby conserving the operational reserve for Stepnohorsk. | CRITICAL C2 DIVERGENCE |
| Stepnohorsk MLD Breakthrough | NLT 051200Z - 051600Z | If P13 BDA is negative and RF armored elements penetrate Phase Line BRAVO, UAF High Command must execute counter-attack doctrine. | DECISIVE KINETIC MOMENT |
6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS AND COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS
| Priority | Gap Description | Required Action | Confidence Impact |
|---|
| P13 (CRITICAL - MANEUVER) | Confirmed status/attrition of lead BRAVO-BLOCK elements and MCLC breach success. | IMMEDIATE ISR Tasking: Re-task all Group 1/2 UAVs for live-feed FMV of the Stepnohorsk breach zone. | CRITICAL |
| P2 (CRITICAL - NEW EW THREAT) | "Kuryer" UGV Control Frequencies and C2 Protocol. (Unchanged) | IMMEDIATE SIGINT/EW Tasking: Focus all available EW assets on the Stepnohorsk MLD corridor to find C2 links for the robotic systems. | CRITICAL |
| P4 (ELEVATED - ENERGY TARGETING) | Confirmed launch coordinates and trajectory analysis for KAB/UAV targeting Kharkiv region. | IMINT/AD Tracking: Prioritize analysis of incoming KAB/UAV launch areas to identify the forward deployment/refueling points for tactical aviation responsible for the Kharkiv strikes. | HIGH |
| P1 (CRITICAL - FLANK) | Validated status of Myrnohrad UAF posture and confirmed vector/consolidation status of the 38th GMRB. | HUMINT/EW/IMINT: Prioritize confirmation of UAF unit locations and 38th GMRB commitment levels (Main effort vs. Fixing force). | HIGH |
7. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS
7.1. Operational Maneuver and Force Protection (J3 / J7)
ACTION: PRIORITIZE C2 HARDENING AND AD REALLOCATION TO THE NORTHEAST.
- C2/AD Priority Shift (CRITICAL): Execute immediate reallocation of one (1) mobile SHORAD battery from a low-threat static position (e.g., western Poltava) to protect the primary C2/Energy hub in Kharkiv Oblast NLT 051100Z. The kinetic threat to Northern C2/logistics is now validated.
- Myrnohrad Stabilization (CRITICAL): Commit the previously planned small, mobile Tactical Reserve element to the Myrnohrad area NLT 1000Z to stabilize the flank. This prevents forced commitment of the main Stepnohorsk operational reserve.
- UGV Counter-Defense: Reinforce the doctrine of using HMG/AGL against UGVs at Stepnohorsk. Utilize long-range sniper teams and designated FPV teams to target the UGV operators/spotters immediately behind the MCLC, based on SIGINT/EW targeting.
7.2. Fires and Targeting (J2 / J3)
ACTION: TARGET FORWARD AVIATION ASSETS AND FLANK STAGING AREAS.
- Counter-Air Platform Targeting: Based on P4 collection, prioritize deep strike assets (e.g., GLSDB/HIMARS) against identified forward operating bases or temporary landing zones responsible for the KAB launches targeting Kharkiv. Exploit the temporary AD gap created by the Kacha strike.
- Interdiction Fires: Continue high-volume fire missions against confirmed staging areas of the 38th GMRB (P1 Gap focus) to disrupt their ability to transition from a fixing force to an exploiting force at Myrnohrad.
7.3. Strategic Communications and Lawfare (STRATCOM / J7 / Legal)
ACTION: MAXIMIZE EXPLOITATION OF RF INTERNAL WEAKNESS.
- POW Testimony PSYOPS (IMMEDIATE): Launch a high-intensity, multi-platform PSYOPS campaign utilizing the DShV POW testimony (commanders threatening to execute subordinates). Focus dissemination on RF mobilization areas, internal troop chats, and occupied territories.
- GUR Success Amplification: Sustain high-visibility amplification of GUR "PRYMARY" successes in Crimea to reinforce the narrative of UAF deep strike capability and operational resilience, directly countering RF claims of battlefield dominance.
- Lawfare Documentation: Ensure immediate legal documentation and international publicity surrounding the Sevastopol nationalization (08:15Z) to frame it as economic warfare and illegal seizure of property.
