MILITARY INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (MISREP) 25-12-05/046
TIME: 050730Z DEC 2025
SUBJECT: STEPNOHORSK MLD: RESERVE MCLC BDA REMAINS UNCONFIRMED. CRITICAL STRATEGIC DIVERGENCE AMPLIFIED BY KREMLIN.
PRIORITY: IMMEDIATE MCLC BDA UTILIZATION AND STRATCOM COUNTER-MESSAGE DISSEMINATION.
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (Current Operational Picture)
1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
The operational status at Stepnohorsk remains CRITICAL. The UAF operational reserve (BRAVO-BLOCK) is engaged in counter-penetration maneuver, likely sustaining losses within the anti-mobility belt.
- Key Terrain: The ALPHA-BRAVO corridor (MCLC zone) is the decisive point. Failure to breach or sustain the lane will require immediate doctrine adjustment for the secondary reserve wave.
- Kinetic Fixation: RF forces continue high-volume artillery and air strikes (KAB) across the Kharkiv Oblast (7 settlements + city affected, 0638Z), confirming the intent to fix UAF forces distant from the Stepnohorsk axis.
1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
Persistent clear skies favor high-altitude RF ISR and precision fires, directly constraining UAF maneuverability in the Stepnohorsk breach zone.
1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
The BRAVO-BLOCK reserve movement order was executed (0600Z). The critical BDA confirmation (P13) on MCLC effectiveness is now 60 minutes overdue.
- RF Control Measures: RF authorities extended the curfew in occupied Zaporizhzhia Oblast (0644Z). Judgment: This is assessed as a preparatory measure to suppress anticipated partisan activity or civilian flight concurrent with the MLD launch and the ensuing large-scale fighting.
- Naval Domain: RF claims destruction of 4 USVs in the Black Sea (0659Z). This is assessed as routine defensive action, maintaining distraction priority.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)
2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
Intention (Strategic): RF intends to achieve kinetic success at Stepnohorsk while simultaneously forcing an immediate strategic disadvantage on Kyiv via amplified diplomatic signaling, leveraging the US VP Vance statement.
Recent Tactical Changes/Adaptations:
- Flank Pressure (Unconfirmed): While the Rodynske claim (38th GMRB consolidation) remains unvalidated (P1 Gap), the widespread kinetic activity across Kharkiv Oblast confirms RF is actively maintaining fixation pressure to isolate the Stepnohorsk axis.
- Diplomatic Synchronization (CRITICAL): Putin publicly stated he discussed "dialogue with the US on a settlement" (0649Z, 0657Z). Judgment: This immediately validates the US VP Vance statement within the RF narrative, transforming a political signal into a synchronized diplomatic operation designed to undermine UAF morale and Western political resolve during the kinetic counter-offensive.
2.2. Logistics and Sustainment Status (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
RF logistical throughput remains sufficient to support the 37th GMRB MLD for the immediate 48-hour window.
- Internal RF Strain Indicators (NEW): TASS is projecting positive social changes (pensions, 0637Z) to mask escalating internal economic stress, evidenced by projected 3.5x airfare price increases (0657Z). Judgment: This confirms mounting domestic economic pressure, though it does not impact immediate military logistics.
2.3. Command and Control Effectiveness (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
RF C2 is highly effective in synchronizing the kinetic operation with high-level geopolitical maneuvers.
- Internal Friction: A Russian court overturned an administrative decree by the occupied Zaporizhzhia governor (0652Z). Judgment: This highlights minor, non-critical friction points within the internal governance structure of the occupied territories, exploitable for IO.
- Internal Security Tightening: A dual citizen was charged with treason for sending a small private financial transfer to Ukraine (0701Z). Judgment: This indicates extreme tightening of internal security apparatus and demonstrates zero tolerance for cross-border financial activity, likely designed to deter civilian support for Ukraine.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking)
3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
UAF remains highly committed at Stepnohorsk. Readiness is high, but morale is increasingly vulnerable to the synchronized IO/Diplomatic assault.
- Tactical Success: UAF 8th SSO Regiment successfully conducted a combat raid in the Lyman direction, neutralizing an infiltrating RF infantry group (0648Z). Judgment: This demonstrates high local ISR and tactical proficiency, confirming UAF ability to successfully conduct complex small-unit operations away from the main axis.
3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
The operational delay and the lack of confirmed BDA on the MCLC effort is a severe, functional setback. The immediate tactical success of the BRAVO-BLOCK maneuver is currently unquantifiable.
3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
- Time: The overdue BDA (P13) is the overriding operational constraint.
- Financial Constraint (NEW): IMF is demanding higher taxes as a condition for a new program (0656Z). Judgment: This financial constraint introduces a major vulnerability to UAF domestic stability and could compromise long-term governance capacity, becoming a prime target for RF IO exploitation.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain)
| Domain | Finding (FACT/Judgment) | Confidence | Operational Impact |
|---|
| CRITICAL STRATEGIC DIVERGENCE AMPLIFIED | Putin confirmed discussing dialogue with the US on a settlement with PM Modi (0649Z, 0657Z). | HIGH (Fact/Signal) | MAXIMUM EXPLOITATION. The Kremlin has seized the US VP Vance statement and is actively weaving it into international diplomatic messaging, validating the narrative that US/Western support is wavering and peace talks are imminent. This creates maximal pressure on Kyiv's political C2. |
| UAF Financial Vulnerability (NEW) | IMF demands increased taxes as a condition for the new loan program (0656Z). | HIGH (Fact) | Provides RF IO with a secondary narrative tool: framing the war effort as fiscally unsustainable and detrimental to the civilian population, distracting from the kinetic crisis. |
| RF IO Targeting EU Cohesion | Russian channels allege EU foreign policy chief Kallas is under pressure due to a corruption scandal (0637Z). | MEDIUM (Fact/Disinformation) | A targeted IO effort designed to disrupt confidence in European political C2 and support mechanisms (EEAS). |
| UAF Morale/Resilience | Widespread official and military observance of International Volunteer Day and daily moments of silence (0701Z, 0658Z). | HIGH (Fact) | Confirms strong internal messaging reinforcing national unity and memorialization, counterbalancing foreign and domestic pressures. |
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future Operations)
5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA) (Confidence: HIGH)
RF forces will sustain concentrated fires on the Stepnohorsk breach corridor until BDA confirms UAF failure or success. Concurrently, RF StratCom will flood both Western and Ukrainian information spaces with messaging centered on the 'Imminent Peace Deal' (Vance/Putin dialogue) and 'Ukrainian Financial Collapse' (IMF demands). The 38th GMRB will continue fixing UAF defenses on the Eastern Flank (Rodynske/Dobropillya).
5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA) (Confidence: HIGH)
The MCLC operation fails, resulting in the destruction or effective neutralization of 40-50% of the BRAVO-BLOCK reserve elements. This operational failure is immediately coupled with an internal political crisis in Kyiv, potentially triggered by the sequencing of the US VP Vance statement, the OP Chief appointment rumors, and the severe IMF constraints. This political fracture prevents UAF High Command from swiftly committing tertiary reserves, leading to a 37th GMRB breakout toward Zaporizhzhia NLT 051800Z.
5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points (CRITICAL)
| Event | Estimated Time Frame | Decision Point | Status |
|---|
| Immediate MCLC BDA Confirmation (P13) | NOW (Overdue 0630Z) | J3/J2 MUST confirm status of MCLC. If BDA is negative by 0745Z, the J3 must execute the dismounted/localized breach contingency plan for the next wave. | CRITICAL ACTION |
| Decision on Second Reserve Wave Doctrine | NLT 050745Z | J3 must commit the secondary elements of BRAVO-BLOCK using the confirmed successful (or necessary contingency) doctrine. | CRITICAL ACTION |
| Counter-Vance/IMF Strategic Messaging | NLT 050900Z | J7/STRATCOM must release a globally coordinated statement addressing both the diplomatic signaling and the economic constraint, framing them as coordinated RF attacks. | URGENT C2 |
6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS AND COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS
| Priority | Gap Description | Required Action | Confidence Impact |
|---|
| P13 (CRITICAL - MANEUVER) | Confirmed success/failure of MCLC integration and attrition levels of lead BRAVO-BLOCK elements. | IMMEDIATE ISR Tasking: Re-task all available Group 1/2 UAVs and airborne assets to provide live-feed, full-motion video of the breach zone (ALPHA-BRAVO corridor). Must prioritize confirmation of lane markers and wrecked RF/UAF armor ratio. | CRITICAL, dictates all immediate fires and maneuver decisions. |
| P1 (CRITICAL - FLANK) | Validated status of Rodynske and immediate vector of the 38th GMRB. | IMINT/SAR: Validate TASS claim on Rodynske. Determine if 38th GMRB assets are consolidating/static or showing mobility for a NW bypass maneuver (Huliaipole). | HIGH, dictates final employment of uncommitted reserve elements. |
| P2 (CRITICAL - NEW EW THREAT) | "Kuryer" UGV Control Frequencies and C2 Protocol. (Unchanged) | IMMEDIATE SIGINT/EW Tasking: Priority collection around the Stepnohorsk breach zone. Focus on identifying RF C2 radio link emissions immediately preceding and during UGV movement. | CRITICAL, required to save lead armor and personnel from UGV attrition. |
7. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS
7.1. Operational Maneuver and Force Protection (J3 / J7)
ACTION: IMPLEMENT MCLC FAILURE CONTINGENCY PLAN IF BDA IS NOT FORTHCOMING.
- Maneuver Doctrine Change: Given the P13 BDA delay and the high-confidence threat of the "Kuryer" UGV/anti-mobility layer, the J3 must transition the secondary elements of BRAVO-BLOCK to a Dismounted Breach and Clear contingency doctrine NLT 0745Z, prioritizing speed and low-signature infiltration over mechanized assault force projection.
- Air Defense Focus: Prioritize mobile SHORAD (Short-Range Air Defense) systems to protect the staging areas of the secondary reserve waves from high-volume KAB strikes, focusing on maximizing coverage stability rather than mobility.
7.2. Fires and Targeting (J2 / J3)
ACTION: COUNTER-FIRE CONCENTRATION AND DEEP INTERDICTION.
- High-Priority Targeting: Immediately commit long-range fires (e.g., HIMARS/ATACMS) to confirmed RF reserve staging areas (P1 target boxes for 38th GMRB) to degrade flank pressure capacity. Rationale: Even if the 38th GMRB is static (Rodynske), attriting their reserves preemptively maximizes UAF flexibility at Stepnohorsk.
- EW Defense: Task dedicated forces to physically defend the forward-deployed short-range EW assets, as these are critical to solving the P2 UGV threat and preventing further BRAVO-BLOCK attrition.
7.3. Strategic Communications (STRATCOM / J7)
ACTION: EXECUTE TWO-PRONGED STRATEGIC COMMUNICATIONS COUNTER-OFFENSIVE.
- Diplomatic Counter-Signal: Release a strong statement (Presidential level) by 0900Z explicitly rejecting the premise of the "US Dialogue" claims. State clearly that the kinetic reality at Stepnohorsk proves RF is not seeking peace, and the military goal remains restoration of full territorial integrity.
- Domestic/Economic Resilience Narrative: STRATCOM must immediately launch a parallel campaign acknowledging the financial constraints (IMF) but framing them as necessary sacrifices for a long-term, free, and self-sufficient Ukraine. This pre-empts RF exploitation of the IMF demands and reinforces the necessity of the current operational commitment.
- Exploit Internal RF Rot: Amplify the high-profile internal security cracks, particularly the extreme treason charge for small financial aid to Ukraine (0701Z) and the internal judicial friction (Balitsky decree), framing them as indicators of a fearful, failing, and totalitarian Russian regime.
