Situation Report

MILITARY INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (MISREP) 25-12-05/045

TIME: 050635Z DEC 2025 SUBJECT: STEPNOHORSK MLD: RESERVE BDA OVERDUE. CRITICAL STRATEGIC DIVERGENCE SIGNALING INTRODUCED. PRIORITY: CRITICAL MANEUVER BDA AND COUNTER-IO/DIPLOMACY COORDINATION.

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1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (Current Operational Picture)

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

The operational status at Stepnohorsk remains CRITICAL. The UAF operational reserve (BRAVO-BLOCK) is engaged in the immediate counter-penetration maneuver, entering the anti-mobility belt.

• Decisive Zone: The zone between Phase Line ALPHA (Forward Defensive Line) and Phase Line BRAVO (Reserve Commitment Line) is the current kinetic focus.
• Flank Pressure (NEW): RF elements claim success in ground assault clearing Rodynske (near Krasnoarmiisk, 0619Z TASS). This, if true, confirms the RF intention to maintain maximal fixation pressure on the Huliaipole/Dobropillya axis (38th GMRB).
• Key Terrain Constraint: The "Mangas" UAS/ "Kuryer" UGV anti-mobility layer is the decisive obstacle for the UAF reserve.

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

Clear skies and low wind persist, favoring long-range RF Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance (ISR) and stand-off fires (KAB, long-range artillery).

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

The BRAVO-BLOCK reserve movement order has been actioned (0600Z). Initial elements are under fire.

• CRITICAL STATUS: The scheduled BDA confirmation (P13) on MCLC effectiveness was due NLT 0630Z. This report assumes the reserve is currently traversing the anti-mobility layer without confirmed success or failure data. The J3 must assume a high attrition rate until BDA confirms lane clearance.
• Black Sea: RF claims successful destruction of Ukrainian naval assets ("Рубикон" targets USVs, 0611Z). This activity is assessed as routine distraction, but requires confirmation.

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2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

Intention (Immediate): The RF 37th GMRB is applying maximal kinetic pressure (fires, KAB) on the reserve movement corridor to destroy UAF mechanized assets within the minefield kill zone.

Recent Tactical Changes/Adaptations:

• Flank Reinforcement (Rodynske Claim): The TASS claim regarding Rodynske (0619Z) strongly suggests the 38th GMRB is actively pushing toward a tactical consolidation in the Krasnoarmiisk area. Judgment: This is designed to force UAF C2 to dedicate more resources to the Eastern Flank, diverting focus from Stepnohorsk.
• Domestic Instability (Confirmed): A Russian lieutenant colonel returning from Ukraine was convicted of double murder, mistakenly targeting civilians as "Ukrainian military" (ASTRA 0617Z). Judgment: This confirms severe mental strain and internal security risks posed by returning personnel, adding to the general RF C2 strain noted in the previous report (corruption/censorship).

2.2. Logistics and Sustainment Status (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)

RF logistical throughput remains sufficient to sustain the MLD kinetic pressure for the immediate 48-hour window (26.12 CRITICAL).

• IO Counter-Narrative: RF information channels are exploiting claims of failed Czech aid delivery (tanks, 0616Z) to counter the UAF narrative of sustained Western military support. This suggests awareness of UAF resource reliance.

2.3. Command and Control Effectiveness (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

RF C2 remains effective at synchronizing the Stepnohorsk MLD with high-level geopolitical shaping operations (Putin in India, 0633Z). The priority remains projecting external legitimacy while maintaining internal control (censorship/legal actions).

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3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking)

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

UAF remains highly mobilized, with the BRAVO-BLOCK reserve committed. All subsequent tactical decisions hinge on the immediate, confirmed BDA from the initial MCLC effort.

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)

Status: The outcome of the critical MCLC operation is unknown. The operational delay forced by the minefield/UGV layer is a functional setback, regardless of the ultimate breach success.

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

The primary constraint is TIME and the lack of real-time BDA (P13).

• Immediate Requirement: Maximum availability of forward-deployed EW assets to counter the P2 threat ("Kuryer"/ "Mangas") is essential to reduce attrition on subsequent reserve waves.
• Constraint: The Rodynske claim (if validated) adds a new pressure point, constraining the immediate flexibility of UAF assets not already committed to the Stepnohorsk axis.

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4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain)

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5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future Operations)

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA) (Confidence: HIGH)

RF forces will sustain the current operational tempo: concentrated fires on the BRAVO-BLOCK corridor until BDA confirms the attrition is sufficient, or a breach is achieved. The 38th GMRB will leverage the Rodynske consolidation (or threat thereof) to maintain flank fixation, preventing the release of UAF reserves for Stepnohorsk support. RF StratCom will immediately amplify the US Vice President Vance peace-talk signaling to maximize political pressure on Kyiv.

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA) (Confidence: HIGH)

The MCLC operation fails, resulting in heavy losses for the BRAVO-BLOCK reserve. Simultaneously, the Vance peace-talk signal paralyzes key Western decision-makers, leading to a temporary suspension of further high-level aid packages (P11). The 37th GMRB achieves operational breakout depth toward Zaporizhzhia, and UAF C2 is further fractured by high-level political changes (new OP Chief) during the crisis, preventing effective coordinated defense.

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points (CRITICAL)

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6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS AND COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS

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7. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS

7.1. Operational Maneuver and Force Protection (J3 / J7)

ACTION: EXECUTE CONTINGENCY MANEUVER PLAN (IF BDA NEGATIVE).

1. Maneuver Decision Cycle: J3 must operate on a maximum 30-minute decision cycle regarding the reserve commitment. If P13 BDA is not confirmed POSITIVE by 0700Z, assume high attrition and immediately transition the next wave (secondary BRAVO-BLOCK) to dismounted sapper/infantry-supported breach doctrine.
2. EW Integration: Immediately deploy ground-based short-range EW/Jamming assets (if available) to the lead elements of the reserve to attempt soft-kill disruption of confirmed "Kuryer" UGV activity along the axis of advance (P2).

7.2. Fires and Targeting (J2 / J3)

ACTION: COUNTER-RESERVE CONCENTRATION AND FLANK SUPPRESSION.

1. Counter-Battery Priority: Shift maximum available counter-battery resources toward suppressing RF deep fires (MLRS, 2S7 Pion) targeting the rear of the BRAVO-BLOCK corridor, where reserve staging and logistics nodes are concentrated. Preserve reserve momentum.
2. Flank Shaping Fires: Allocate pre-planned artillery strikes and loitering munitions onto suspected 38th GMRB staging areas (P1 target boxes), regardless of the Rodynske validation, to degrade their ability to capitalize on any Stepnohorsk breakthrough.

7.3. Strategic Communications (STRATCOM / J7)

ACTION: IMMEDIATE COUNTER-SIGNALING TO US VICE PRESIDENT VANCE.

1. STRATCOM Priority: Immediately execute a high-profile, coordinated response to the US VP Vance comment. The narrative must reaffirm Ukrainian sovereignty and the strategic goal of territorial integrity, explicitly linking the current operational counter-attack at Stepnohorsk to the necessity of fighting until total victory.
2. Diplomatic Outreach: J7/Ministry of Foreign Affairs must immediately contact key partners (Poland, Germany, Norway—Patriot package donors) to confirm their continued commitment, ensuring the Vance comment does not create friction or delays in confirmed aid delivery.
3. Exploit Internal RF Rot: Re-launch the corruption/censorship campaign (Section 4.1, 4.2) to demonstrate to Western and domestic audiences that RF is internally fracturing while the UAF maintains external support and internal resolve.