Sitrep 2025-12-05 06:04:27

MILITARY INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (MISREP) 25-12-05/044

TIME: 050604Z DEC 2025 SUBJECT: STEPNOHORSK MLD: RESERVE ENGAGEMENT PHASE INITIATED. ENEMY CENSORSHIP AND DIPLOMATIC SIGNALING INTENSIFY. PRIORITY: CRITICAL BATTLE DAMAGE ASSESSMENT (BDA) AND COUNTER-MOBILITY EFFORT.

1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (Current Operational Picture)

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

The operational status at Stepnohorsk remains CRITICAL. The decisive moment for committing the UAF operational reserve (BRAVO-BLOCK) has passed (0600Z CDP).

Stepnohorsk Axis (Main Effort): RF 37th GMRB is currently executing the penetration attempt through the forward defensive layer (Phase Line ALPHA). The UAF reserve, integrating Mine Clearing Line Charges (MCLCs), should now be in motion toward the breach zone. Immediate BDA (P13) on the effectiveness of the initial breach is paramount.
Flank Axis (Fixation Effort): RF 38th GMRB continues to fix UAF elements along the Huliaipole/Dobropillya axis. This fixation is supported by highly amplified IO claims to ensure UAF C2 remains split.
Key Terrain Constraint: The "Mangas" UAS Rapid Mine-laying Operation (RMAO) and the accompanying "Kuryer" UGVs constitute the primary anti-mobility threat delaying the counter-penetration maneuver.

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

Clear skies and low wind persist, maintaining optimal conditions for RF Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance (ISR) and Guided Aerial Bomb (KAB) targeting. The weather continues to favor multi-domain RF operations.

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

Forward defense elements are heavily engaged. The BRAVO-BLOCK reserve movement order has been executed (Actioned NLT 050600Z). Success hinges on the effectiveness of the MCLC integration under kinetic pressure.

Fact: The immediate operational focus is the intersection of the reserve advance and the RF mine/UGV anti-mobility layer.
Fact: Routine operational control is maintained in key rear areas (Kryvyi Rih SitRep confirms control, 050535Z).

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

Intention: RF objective is to leverage the operational delay (0600Z window) to inflict maximum attrition on the UAF reserve as it clears the minefield, thereby allowing the 37th GMRB to transition from penetration to operational consolidation forward of Phase Line BRAVO.

Recent Tactical Changes/Adaptations:

Hybrid Warfare: Continued integration of specialized robotic systems ("Kuryer" UGV, "Mangas" RMAO) to sustain the MLD without high personnel cost. This reduces RF sensitivity to UAF attrition messaging.
Censorship Escalation (NEW): RF has escalated internal information control, blocking access to major social platforms and VPN protocols (SnapChat, Roblox, Facetime, VPNs, 050548Z). Judgment: This signals increased RF concern over deep strike reporting (Syzran/Grozny) and internal stability, necessitating a complete lockdown on external information flow.

2.2. Logistics and Sustainment Status (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)

RF logistics remain the long-term strategic vulnerability, despite sufficient immediate ammunition.

Immediate Ammunition: The 260th GRAU Arsenal Score (26.12 CRITICAL) confirms RF ability to sustain the MLD kinetic pressure for the immediate 48-hour window.
Strategic Vulnerability: Confirmed deep strikes (Syzran) and high-level corruption arrests (Logistics Director) provide strong strategic advantages.
Internal Rot (NEW): Confirmation of the arrest of 11 individuals for stealing 5.2 million Rubles from military personnel (050552Z) further validates intelligence regarding pervasive financial crime within the RF system, undermining troop welfare and morale.

2.3. Command and Control Effectiveness (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)

RF C2 effectively synchronizes the MLD with geopolitical shaping operations (Putin in India, Trump contact signaling). However, the internal security issues (corruption arrests, censorship spike) indicate localized C2 strain and a high prioritization of internal informational control over decentralized operational flexibility.

3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking)

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

UAF posture is highly mobilized, with the BRAVO-BLOCK reserve committed to the counter-attack maneuver as of 0600Z. Success is contingent on rapid BDA (P13) and the ability of integrated engineering assets to mitigate the "Mangas" minefield and "Kuryer" UGV threat.

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

Successes: Execution of the deep strike campaign (Syzran Refinery) and securing strategic aid (Patriot package).

Setbacks: The reliance on MCLC integration has caused an unavoidable operational delay, allowing the 37th GMRB to gain critical time in the breach zone.

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

The primary constraint has shifted from "initiation of movement" to "successful penetration of the anti-mobility layer." Critical Requirement: Dedicated close air support (if available) or intensive suppression fire (J3/J2) must be maintained over the MCLC breach corridor to protect the reserve force's advance.

4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain)

Domain	Finding (FACT/Judgment)	Confidence	Operational Impact
RF Geopolitical Signaling (NEW)	RF comments on easily organizing a call between Putin and former President Trump (050536Z).	HIGH (Fact)	STRATEGIC DIVERSION: Attempts to signal diplomatic relevance and potential future US policy shifts, designed to disrupt ongoing US-Ukraine aid discussions (Miami negotiations, P11) and exploit domestic US political divisions.
RF Internal Censorship (NEW)	Roskomnadzor aggressively blocked social apps and VPN protocols (050548Z).	HIGH (Fact)	CRITICAL INFORMATION CONTROL: Demonstrates high C2 prioritization on maintaining internal narrative control following embarrassing deep strikes (Syzran, Grozny) and logistics corruption leaks. Indicates fear of domestic instability.
RF Internal Rot Exposure (NEW)	Arrest of 11 individuals for stealing funds from military personnel (050552Z).	HIGH (Fact)	STRATEGIC EXPLOITATION OPPORTUNITY: Confirms the depth of systemic corruption affecting RF service members. High value for UAF STRATCOM to degrade enemy morale and public trust.
RF Military Propaganda (NEW)	Video featuring Uragan MLRS crew and discussion of "agitation" via artillery (050602Z).	MEDIUM (Fact/Judgment)	MORALE/DOCTRINE: Confirms use of BM-27 Uragan MLRS (D-S belief 0.030898) and highlights psychological warfare as an explicit doctrinal objective of their indirect fires.
RF Strategic Diplomacy (NEW)	Putin's official welcome ceremony in India (050603Z).	HIGH (Fact)	GLOBAL LEGITIMACY: Projects an image of international stability and continued diplomatic engagement despite the war, countering Western isolation efforts.

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future Operations)

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA) (Confidence: HIGH)

RF forces (37th GMRB) will mass fires (artillery and KAB) onto the newly advancing BRAVO-BLOCK reserve corridor, focusing specifically on observed MCLC assets. They will attempt to utilize "Mangas" and "Kuryer" C2 flexibility to reposition anti-mobility assets and channel the counter-attack into optimized kill zones. The flank fixation (38th GMRB) will continue localized attacks to enforce reserve commitment constraints.

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA) (Confidence: HIGH)

The "Mangas" RMAO severely degrades the MCLC effectiveness, resulting in heavy armor loss for the leading BRAVO-BLOCK elements, halting the counter-attack NLT 050700Z. RF capitalizes on the resulting C2 confusion by launching the predicted high-precision Kinzhal/Iskander strike on the Dnipro C2 node. The 37th GMRB achieves operational breakout depth toward Zaporizhzhia under reduced UAF command coordination.

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points (CRITICAL)

Event	Estimated Time Frame	Decision Point	Status
Immediate MCLC BDA Confirmation (P13)	NLT 050630Z	J3/J2 MUST CONFIRM BREACH SUCCESS/FAILURE. Determines whether to commit follow-on reserve waves or initiate immediate fire suppression/diversionary maneuvers.	CRITICAL ACTION
RF Geopolitical Response Integration	NLT 050700Z	J2/J7 must analyze RF diplomatic signaling (Trump/India) for shifts in military aid calculus or strategic distraction impact.	URGENT C2
Miami Negotiations Outcome (P11)	NLT 050800Z	J3/J6 must receive and integrate any confirmed immediate military aid (EW/AD) to counter the MDCOA threat and support reserve movement.	URGENT C2

6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS AND COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS

Priority	Gap Description	Required Action	Confidence Impact
P13 (CRITICAL - MANEUVER)	Confirmed depth and composition of the 37th GMRB penetration and MCLC effectiveness. (BDA)	IMMEDIATE UAV/IMINT Tasking: Directed high-resolution observation of the MCLC breach zone (Phase Line ALPHA to BRAVO) and the forward echelon of the 37th GMRB.	CRITICAL, dictates optimal direction and timing for reserve follow-on maneuvers.
P2 (CRITICAL - NEW EW THREAT)	"Mangas" UAS Control Frequencies and C2 Protocol. (Unchanged)	IMMEDIATE SIGINT/EW Tasking: Priority collection around the Stepnohorsk breach to develop a rapid soft-kill profile for the anti-mobility layer.	CRITICAL, dictates effectiveness of countermeasures beyond MCLC, crucial for minimizing reserve losses.
P1 (CRITICAL - FLANK)	Vector and immediate intention of the 38th GMRB. (Unchanged)	ISR Tasking (IMINT/HUMINT): Dedicated observation of 38th GMRB staging areas, focusing on movement toward flank reinforcement or bypass (Huliaipole/Dobropillya).	HIGH, dictates final employment of reserve force elements.

7. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS

7.1. Operational Maneuver and Force Protection (J3 / J7)

ACTION: EXECUTE FIRE SUPPORT OVERWATCH AND RAPID BDA FOR RESERVE MOVEMENT.

Immediate Fire Suppression: J2/J3 must coordinate intensive, sustained counter-battery fire (TOT) focused on all confirmed or suspected RF fire support positions covering the MCLC breach corridor, particularly targeting MLRS assets (Uragan) and KAB launch points.
Reserve Dispersal: Ensure follow-on BRAVO-BLOCK waves maintain strict operational dispersion to minimize losses from area saturation fire (MLRS/KAB) while awaiting confirmed BDA (P13).
Engineer Doctrine (Immediate): If MCLC BDA is negative, immediately transition to localized, infantry-supported breaching efforts utilizing dismounted sappers with man-portable explosive charges to clear lanes for lead armor elements.

7.2. Fires and Targeting (J2 / J3)

ACTION: LOGISTICS AND UGV C2 DEGRADATION.

Logistics Interdiction: Prioritize deep strikes on identified RF rail-logistics choke points supplying the Zaporizhzhia axis, leveraging the Kacha Airfield radar gap to increase effectiveness. Starve the 37th GMRB of essential fuel/ammunition beyond the immediate 48-hour stockpile.
UAS C2 Disruption: Immediately allocate short-range, high-power Electronic Attack (EA) assets to jam confirmed "Mangas" and "Kuryer" control frequencies (P2) along the maneuver corridor. Treat the UGV threat as a high-priority, soft-kill target.

7.3. Strategic Communications (STRATCOM / J7)

ACTION: EXPLOIT CORRUPTION AND CENSORSHIP.

IO Campaign (Corruption): Immediately launch a major, coordinated information campaign exploiting the twin confirmed failures: the arrest of the high-level Logistics Director and the arrests for stealing funds from front-line soldiers. Frame the MLD as being led by a regime that robs its own troops.
Counter-Censorship Narrative: Use the confirmed RF censorship spike (blocking social media/VPNs) to demonstrate RF fear regarding the truth of the Syzran/Grozny deep strikes and the Stepnohorsk operational losses. Frame it as evidence of an internally fracturing regime.
Counter-Diplomacy: Aggressively utilize confirmed Western aid packages ($500M Patriot) to counter RF signaling attempts (Putin/Trump/India), demonstrating that international support remains kinetic and effective despite RF diplomatic theatrics.

Situation Report