Situation Report

MILITARY INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (MISREP) 25-12-05/043

TIME: 050545Z DEC 2025 SUBJECT: STEPNOHORSK MLD: CRITICAL JUNCTURE. BRAVO-BLOCK RESERVE COMMITMENT REQUIRED NLT 050600Z. NEW STRATEGIC LOGISTICS INTERDICTION CONFIRMED. PRIORITY: CRITICAL MANEUVER AND COUNTER-MOBILITY.

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1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (Current Operational Picture)

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

The operational status at Stepnohorsk remains CRITICAL. The RF 37th Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade (GMRB) is attempting a coordinated penetration toward Phase Line BRAVO.

• Constraint Confirmation: The immediate approach routes for the UAF BRAVO-BLOCK reserve remain functionally blocked by the "Mangas" UAS Rapid Mine-laying Operation (RMAO). The window for the reserve to initiate counter-penetration maneuver before the 37th GMRB consolidates depth is rapidly closing (T-minus 15 minutes to the 050600Z critical decision point).
• Flank Pressure: RF forces continue the fixation effort on the UAF flank, specifically targeting the Huliaipole/Dobropillya axis (confirmed OSINT messaging focus). This is designed to hold the 38th GMRB in place and prevent lateral reinforcement of Stepnohorsk.

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

Clear skies and low wind persist, maintaining optimal conditions for RF Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance (ISR), and Guided Aerial Bomb (KAB) targeting. The weather continues to favor multi-domain RF operations (UAS/KAB).

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

Forward defense elements are heavily engaged. The BRAVO-BLOCK reserve is standing by but must initiate movement with integrated breaching assets NLT 050600Z.

• Fact: UAF has confirmed the successful execution of deep strikes targeting strategic RF infrastructure in the deep rear (Syzran Refinery, Grozny City).
• Judgment: These deep strikes provide strategic mitigation against long-term RF sustainment but do not mitigate the immediate tactical threat posed by the 37th GMRB penetration.

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2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

Intention: RF objective remains forcing a deep penetration at Stepnohorsk while leveraging the "Mangas" minefield delay to isolate and attrit the UAF reserve as it moves into the breach zone. The coordinated IO campaign (Pokrovsk claims, Bohdana destruction claims) is aimed at distracting and degrading UAF confidence during the MLD.

Recent Tactical Changes/Adaptations:

• Multi-Domain Fixation: RF is actively using IO assets (Rybar, Voine DV) to generate and reinforce the narrative of successful operations near Pokrovsk and Huliaipole. This directly supports the 38th GMRB's mission of fixing UAF forces on the flank.
• Hybrid Warfare Execution: The integrated use of specialized, remote-controlled assets ("Mangas" RMAO, "Kuryer" UGV for breaching) confirms RF doctrine is shifting toward reducing personnel exposure in high-risk zones, allowing MLD sustainability despite high casualty rates.

2.2. Logistics and Sustainment Status (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

RF logistics remain the key strategic vulnerability, now confirmed by both kinetic and internal security intelligence:

• Kinetic Pressure: Confirmed successful drone attack on the Syzran Oil Refinery (0510Z). This adds significant pressure to RF fuel distribution chains, following the Tambov/Voronezh strikes.
• Systemic Corruption: The confirmed arrest of Andrey Avgustinovich, Director of the state-owned Center for Transport Logistics (TASS, 0518Z), validates previous UAF intelligence regarding systemic corruption impacting RF military supply chains. This provides a long-term strategic advantage for UAF IO and targeting (Belief: 0.380150).
• Immediate Ammunition: Despite the above, the 260th GRAU Arsenal Score (26.12 CRITICAL) indicates sufficient ammunition throughput for the Stepnohorsk MLD for the immediate 48-hour assault window.

2.3. Command and Control Effectiveness (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)

RF C2 is effectively synchronizing the complex MLD operation with strategic deep IO and diplomatic activity (New Delhi). However, the internal security arrests (Logistics Director) and deep strikes (Syzran/Grozny) place increasing localized strain on C2 nodes responsible for force protection and internal security.

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3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking)

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

Forward units are holding the line but facing high-intensity kinetic pressure. The BRAVO-BLOCK reserve is at peak readiness but operationally restricted by the need for integrated breaching assets to clear the "Mangas" minefield layer.

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

Successes:

1. Syzran Refinery Strike: Successful deep strike targeting RF critical energy infrastructure.
2. Grozny Strike: Confirmed drone impact on a high-rise in Grozny, demonstrating continued strategic reach and disrupting internal RF narrative stability.
3. IO Counter-Narrative: UAF maintains a strong counter-narrative (1,240 claimed RF losses, Volunteer Day).

Setbacks:

1. Operational Delay: The necessity of integrating specialized breaching assets (MCLCs) has delayed the counter-attack maneuver. This delay risks allowing the 37th GMRB to transition from penetration to consolidation.

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

CRITICAL REQUIREMENT: Execution of the BRAVO-BLOCK reserve movement with Mine Clearing Line Charges (MCLCs) and other anti-mobility countermeasure systems NLT 050600Z. This constraint remains the primary obstacle to stabilizing the Stepnohorsk axis.

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4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain)

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5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future Operations)

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA) (Confidence: HIGH)

The 37th GMRB will complete the penetration using the time afforded by the UAF reserve delay. They will prioritize establishing a shallow, consolidated defensive perimeter forward of Phase Line BRAVO, utilizing the "Mangas" minefield as their forward defense. RF ISR will focus heavily on locating the MCLC lead elements. The 38th GMRB will intensify localized mechanized assaults (backed by amplified IO claims of Huliaipole success) to ensure the BRAVO-BLOCK reserve cannot be repositioned.

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA) (Confidence: HIGH)

The "Mangas" RMAO severely degrades the MCLC effectiveness, resulting in heavy armor loss for the leading BRAVO-BLOCK elements, halting the counter-attack NLT 050700Z. RF capitalizes on the C2 confusion by launching the predicted high-precision Kinzhal/Iskander strike on the Dnipro C2 node. The 37th GMRB achieves operational breakout depth toward Zaporizhzhia under reduced UAF command coordination.

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points (CRITICAL)

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6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS AND COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS

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7. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS

7.1. Operational Maneuver and Force Protection (J3 / J7)

ACTION: INITIATE BRAVO-BLOCK MOVEMENT WITH INTEGRATED BREACHING NLT 050600Z.

1. Maneuver Execution: J3 MUST CONFIRM THE LAUNCH ORDER. MCLC assets must be moving now. Ensure follow-on waves maintain strict standoff until BDA (P13) is confirmed, preventing bunching in the breach zone.
2. Immediate Counter-Mobility Doctrine: Engineers accompanying the advance must be equipped with supplemental man-portable explosive breaching charges (e.g., Bangalore torpedoes) for immediate secondary clearance following MCLC failure or partial clearance.
3. Flank Protection: Re-assess the minimum viable force required to contain the 38th GMRB threat based on persistent P1 gap. Do not over-commit the Stepnohorsk reserve to the flank prematurely.

7.2. Fires and Targeting (J2 / J3)

ACTION: SUPPRESSION FIRE AND LOGISTICS EXPLOITATION

1. Suppression of UAS C2: Establish immediate Time on Target (TOT) artillery missions aimed at suppressing confirmed or suspected "Mangas" UAS launch and control points (P2). Coordinate suppression to precede the MCLC advance.
2. Targeting Validation: Prioritize high-value targeting of RF logistics elements responsible for supplying fuel to the 37th GMRB, exploiting the degradation caused by the Syzran strike.

7.3. Electronic Warfare and Air Defense (J6 / AD Command)

ACTION: PROTECT MANEUVER CORRIDORS AND C2 NODE

1. EW Maneuver Support: Intensify localized EW jamming (narrow-band, high power) over the BRAVO-BLOCK reserve corridor to disrupt "Mangas" and "Kuryer" C2 links (P2) and mitigate enemy ISR.
2. AD Alert: Elevate AD posture around the Dnipro C2 node (MDCOA target). Incorporate any confirmed AD assets received from the Miami negotiations (P11) immediately into the defense grid.

7.4. Strategic Communications (STRATCOM / J7)

ACTION: EXPLOIT LOGISTICS FAILURE

1. IO Campaign (Corruption): Immediately launch a targeted information campaign exploiting the arrest of the Center for Transport Logistics Director. Frame the Stepnohorsk MLD as an effort doomed by systemic corruption and logistical rot, forcing RF reliance on expendable robotic systems due to failure to sustain human forces.
2. Deep Strike Validation: Utilize imagery and confirmed facts of the Syzran and Grozny strikes to counter the RF narrative of invulnerability (e.g., Bohdana claim). Emphasize that UAF deep strike capability is forcing RF to fight on two fronts: the tactical line and the deep strategic rear.