Sitrep 2025-12-05 05:04:27

MILITARY INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (MISREP) 25-12-05/042

TIME: 050530Z DEC 2025 SUBJECT: STEPNOHORSK MLD ACTIVE PHASE. IMMEDIATE BATTLE DAMAGE ASSESSMENT (BDA) REQUIRED. BRAVO-BLOCK MUST MOVE WITH INTEGRATED BREACHING ASSETS. PRIORITY: CRITICAL MANEUVER REQUIREMENT. RISK OF RESERVE ISOLATION HIGH.

1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (Current Operational Picture)

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

The Stepnohorsk Main Land Drive (MLD) remains kinetically active. The enemy 37th Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade (GMRB) is attempting penetration of forward UAF defense lines toward Phase Line BRAVO.

AoA Status: All major UAF counter-attack avenues from the BRAVO-BLOCK reserve staging area are currently assessed as MINE-DENIED/CONTAMINATED due to confirmed "Mangas" UAS Rapid Mine-laying Operations (RMAO) conducted between 050400Z and 050500Z.
Critical Terrain: The area immediately forward of the UAF reserve staging point is now a decisive operational bottleneck. The delay imposed by mine clearance will determine if UAF reserves can engage the 37th GMRB before operational depth is achieved.

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

Clear skies and low wind conditions continue, providing ideal visibility for RF ISR, Guided Aerial Bomb (KAB) strikes, and specialized low-altitude UAS deployment ("Mangas"). No weather mitigation is currently available to UAF forces against RF air domain assets.

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)

The operational decision point for the BRAVO-BLOCK reserve commitment has been reached. J2/J3 has mandated a Battle Damage Assessment (BDA) of the 37th GMRB penetration depth NLT 050530Z.

Fact: No confirmed kinetic update on the depth of the 37th GMRB penetration is available as of 050530Z.
Judgment: The lack of immediate contact confirmation suggests either heavy close-quarters fighting masking ISR, or a successful deep penetration by the RF spearhead elements (Kuryer/37th GMRB).

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

Intention: RF objectives remain focused on fixing UAF reserves using the new UAS-delivered anti-mobility layer ("Mangas") while the mechanized assault achieves depth.

Recent Tactical Changes: RF demonstrates continuous, effective synchronization of operations across multiple domains:

Kinetic Synchronization: The MLD timing coincided directly with the "Mangas" RMAO.
Strategic Synchronization: High-profile diplomatic activity (Putin in New Delhi, confirmed 04:35Z, 04:52Z) is maintained to project normalcy and divert strategic focus at the precise moment of tactical escalation.
IO Synchronization: Immediate tactical disinformation regarding UAF losses is prioritized, evidenced by the RF MoD claim of 41 downed UAVs (Confirmed 04:55Z), aimed at degrading UAF morale and confidence in deep strike capabilities (e.g., Kacha Airfield success).

2.2. Logistics and Sustainment Status (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)

The confirmed corruption in the Center for Transport Logistics (Previous Report) and successful UAF interdiction (Temryuk LPG strike) represent long-term pressure points. However, RF ammunition stores (GRAU Score 26.12, CRITICAL) remain sufficient for the immediate 48-hour MLD assault. RF reliance on UAS/air delivery for specialized tactical assets (like "Mangas" mine canisters) mitigates immediate ground logistics vulnerabilities in the breach zone.

2.3. Command and Control Effectiveness (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

RF C2 remains effective and robust. The integrated multi-domain execution (Kinetic, IO, Strategic Diplomacy) points to high-level coordination and centralized decision-making supporting the Stepnohorsk MLD.

3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking)

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)

Forward defense units at Stepnohorsk are heavily engaged. The BRAVO-BLOCK reserve is at high readiness but is critically constrained by the "Mangas" UAS threat. Commanders are under extreme pressure to commit forces rapidly while managing the new high-risk mine environment.

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

Successes:

Confirmed successful deep strike at Kacha Airfield (Previous Report).
Confirmed successful logistics interdiction at Temryuk (Previous Report).

Setbacks:

Operational Delay: The need to integrate Mine Clearing Line Charges (MCLC) and specialized breaching assets has imposed an operational delay on the BRAVO-BLOCK reserve movement. This delay may allow the 37th GMRB to consolidate its gains and establish a defensible perimeter forward of Phase Line BRAVO.

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

CRITICAL REQUIREMENT: Immediate, rapid supply and integration of Mine Clearing Line Charges (MCLCs), mine rollers, and explosive breaching munitions for the BRAVO-BLOCK reserve axis. This is the single highest operational constraint currently impacting the counter-attack effort.

4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain)

Domain	Finding (FACT/Judgment)	Confidence	Operational Impact
RF AD Projection	RF MoD claims 41 UAF UAVs downed over RF/Crimea (04:55:51Z).	HIGH (Fact)	DEGRADES UAF MORALE/FIRE SUPPORT: Direct attempt to minimize the Kacha strike success and project RF invulnerability during the MLD.
Diplomatic Activity (Miami)	US-Ukraine strategic negotiations concluded (04:35Z, 04:39Z).	HIGH (Fact)	STRATEGIC CLARITY REQUIRED (P11): The operational crisis demands immediate confirmation of any confirmed aid packages (especially EW/AD/Fires) resulting from this meeting to shape the counter-MLD response.
RF Strategic Diversion	Putin's visit to New Delhi is actively underway (04:35Z, 04:52Z).	HIGH (Fact)	GLOBAL ATTENTION DIVERSION: Reinforces RF strategy to diminish the global focus on the aggression at Stepnohorsk.
RF Domestic Diversion	Continued focus on non-critical domestic news (legal code changes, history posts).	HIGH (Observation)	INTERNAL FOCUS CONTROL: Masks the Stepnohorsk operation and related RF losses from the domestic population.

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future Operations)

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA) (Confidence: HIGH)

RF forces will prioritize defending the newly laid "Mangas" mine barriers to maximize the tactical advantage of the UAF reserve delay. The 37th GMRB spearhead elements will establish forward observation posts and reinforce the penetration zone. Concurrently, the 38th GMRB (P1 Gap) will increase fixation pressure, likely with localized mechanized thrusts towards Dobropillya, to ensure the BRAVO-BLOCK reserve cannot be laterally redeployed.

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA) (Confidence: HIGH)

The "Mangas" deployed minefields successfully isolate the leading elements of the BRAVO-BLOCK reserve, leading to heavy armor/personnel losses and halting the counter-attack. RF exploits the resulting confusion by launching the predicted high-precision strike (Kinzhal/Iskander) on the Dnipro C2 node, aiming for C2 paralysis during the UAF reserve collapse. This scenario grants the 37th GMRB operational breakout depth towards the operational objective (Zaporizhzhia).

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points (CRITICAL)

Event	Estimated Time Frame	Decision Point	Status
Stepnohorsk Penetration Assessment	CURRENT: 050530Z	J2/J3 must confirm depth of 37th GMRB penetration to finalize BRAVO-BLOCK commitment axis.	CRITICAL ACTION
Immediate MCLC Integration & Movement	NLT 050600Z	BRAVO-BLOCK reserve elements must be moving, with breaching assets leading the formation. Delay beyond 050600Z risks operational failure.	IMMEDIATE EXECUTION
Miami Negotiations Outcome	NLT 050630Z	J3/J6 must incorporate any confirmed immediate military aid (EW, AD, or Fires) into the Stepnohorsk counter-attack plan.	URGENT C2

6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS AND COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS

Priority	Gap Description	Required Action	Confidence Impact
P1 (CRITICAL - MANEUVER/FLANK)	Vector and immediate intention of the 38th GMRB. (Unchanged)	ISR Tasking (IMINT/HUMINT): Dedicated observation of 38th GMRB staging areas, focusing on movement toward flank reinforcement or bypass.	HIGH, dictates final employment of reserve force elements.
P2 (CRITICAL - NEW EW THREAT)	"Mangas" UAS Control Frequencies and C2 Protocol. (Unchanged)	IMMEDIATE SIGINT/EW Tasking: Prioritize collection around Stepnohorsk to identify UAS control links and develop rapid soft-kill profile.	CRITICAL, dictates effectiveness of minefield countermeasures.
P11 (CRITICAL - DIPLOMATIC/AID)	Specific outcome of US-Ukraine negotiations in Miami. (Unchanged)	HUMINT/SIGINT/OSINT: Confirm any agreements related to immediate military, financial, or technical assistance (especially EW/AD assets).	CRITICAL, could unlock capabilities needed to counter MDCOA/MLCOA.
P13 (NEW - BDA)	Confirmed depth and composition of the 37th GMRB penetration.	UAV/IMINT Tasking: Directed high-resolution observation of the immediate breach zone forward of Phase Line BRAVO.	CRITICAL, dictates whether the reserve executes counter-penetration or counter-attack.

7. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS

7.1. Operational Maneuver and Force Protection (J3 / J7)

ACTION: EXECUTE BRAVO-BLOCK WITH MCLC LEADING, NLT 050600Z.

Maneuver Execution: J3 MUST ISSUE THE FINALIZED COUNTER-ATTACK ORDER. The order must ensure that Mine Clearing Line Charges (MCLC), mine rollers, or specialized engineer breaching vehicles precede all mechanized maneuver elements (tanks/IFVs) entering the assumed compromised AoAs.
Infantry Disaggregation: Dismounted infantry and engineer teams must be prioritized for reconnaissance and clearance operations through the "Mangas" affected areas. Assume any vehicular asset moving without preceding clearance will become mobility killed.
BDA Confirmation (P13): The commitment of follow-on reserve waves must be contingent on the BDA confirming the 37th GMRB penetration depth, optimizing the counter-attack vector.

7.2. Fires and Targeting (J2 / J3)

ACTION: SUPPRESSION OF MANGAS/KURYER C2 AND LOGISTICS

EW/Fires Coordination: Coordinate HIMARS/Artillery strikes immediately on confirmed or suspected "Mangas" UAS Forward Operating Locations (FOLs). Simultaneously, establish pre-planned fire missions against the suspected 37th GMRB penetration depth (P13 BDA result).
Air Denial: Utilize the Kacha Airfield radar degradation window to prioritize deep strikes (missile/UAV) on secondary RF C2 nodes supporting the GTV Vostok or rail choke points in Northern Crimea.

7.3. Electronic Warfare and Air Defense (J6 / AD Command)

ACTION: ESTABLISH EW CORRIDORS FOR RESERVE MOVEMENT

EW Prioritization (P2): Immediately establish high-power, localized EW jamming boxes directly over the BRAVO-BLOCK reserve maneuver corridors. The primary target is the "Mangas" UAS C2 links (P2) to prevent potential further mine deployment and neutralize the "Kuryer" UGV breaching capability.
AD Posture: Maintain maximum readiness (T-minus 30 minutes) to intercept the MDCOA (Dnipro C2 strike). The claimed RF success of 41 downed UAVs should be treated as IO, not as a reflection of actual AD superiority over the main operational axis.

7.4. Strategic Communications (STRATCOM / J7)

ACTION: COUNTER RF DIVERSION

Exploit the Diplomatic Event (P11): Immediately prepare messaging that frames the conclusion of the Miami talks as a precursor to robust, immediate military aid. This is necessary to counter the global distraction caused by Putin's high-profile New Delhi visit and the RF IO claims of UAF failure.
Counter-Propaganda: Issue concise, data-driven statements refuting the RF claim of 41 downed UAVs. Frame the MLD as a desperate attempt relying on robotic systems ("Kuryer" UGV, "Mangas" UAS) due to unsustainable personnel losses.

Situation Report