Situation Report

MILITARY INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (MISREP) 25-12-05/041

TIME: 050500Z DEC 2025 SUBJECT: STEPNOHORSK MLD ACTIVE PHASE: CONFIRMED UAS MINE-LAYING THREAT (MANGAS) REMAINS CRITICAL. IMMEDIATE REACTION REQUIRED. PRIORITY: IMMEDIATE COUNTER-BREACH OPERATION REQUIRED. ASSUME COUNTER-ATTACK AXES ARE MINE-DENIED.

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1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (Current Operational Picture)

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

The enemy Main Land Drive (MLD) at Stepnohorsk (Zaporizhzhia Axis) is confirmed active since 050345Z. The assault utilizes robotics ("Kuryer" UGV) to breach forward defenses and the "Mangas" UAS to rapidly deploy anti-tank mines to interdict potential UAF counter-attack axes.

• Stepnohorsk MLD: Kinetic engagement is underway. The immediate focus remains Phase Line BRAVO, where the 37th GMRB is attempting penetration.
• Avenues of Approach (AoAs): UAF counter-attack AoAs originating from the BRAVO-BLOCK reserve staging area must now be classified as MINE-DENIED OR CONTAMINATED due to the confirmed "Mangas" UAS operational window (050400Z - 050500Z). This changes the fundamental tactical requirement from "Maneuver to Contact" to "Maneuver and Mine-Clearance to Contact."

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

Clear skies persist. This continues to facilitate RF air domain operations, including KAB delivery, ISR, and the high-risk, low-altitude UAS-driven RMAO (Rapid Mine-laying Operations).

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures (CONFIDENCE: CRITICAL)

The operational decision point for the BRAVO-BLOCK operational reserve commitment is expired and action must be executed. Intelligence provides no kinetic updates on the immediate outcome of the 37th GMRB breach attempt between 04:00Z and 05:00Z.

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2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

Intention: RF intends to fix UAF operational reserves using UAS-delivered anti-mobility barriers ("Mangas") while achieving depth with synchronized UGV/Mechanized elements.

Recent Tactical Adaptations: RF Information Operations (IO) confirm immediate synchronization with the kinetic MLD:

• UAV Counter-Narrative (FACT): RF MoD claims 41 Ukrainian UAVs were neutralized overnight over Russian territory. This aims to project robust air defense capabilities and minimize the perceived impact of UAF deep strikes (e.g., Kacha, Temryuk) which were intended to support the counter-MLD effort.
• IO Saturation (JUDGMENT): The heavy deployment of non-critical, high-traffic news items (RoboCop, Trump renovation, EU corruption) reinforces the intent to saturate the global information space and divert strategic focus away from Stepnohorsk.

2.2. Logistics and Sustainment Status (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)

The successful Temryuk LPG strike will soon impact fuel supplies. The confirmation of a high-profile corruption case involving the Director of the Center for Transport Logistics (Andrei Avgostinovich) indicates persistent RF vulnerability in rail/strategic transport management. This potential internal instability supports the previous assessment that RF will prioritize air/UAS delivery (including Mangas logistics) and rely heavily on existing GRAU arsenal stock (currently assessed as High/Critical 26.12 Score) for the initial assault phase.

2.3. Command and Control Effectiveness (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

RF C2 remains robust, demonstrated by the effective, synchronized timing of the kinetic MLD, the strategic AD projection, and the deep IO saturation campaign.

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3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking)

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)

UAF frontline units at Stepnohorsk are under heavy pressure. The readiness of the BRAVO-BLOCK reserve is high, but the execution of their mission plan must be fundamentally revised to account for the "Mangas" RMAO capability.

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

Successes: Confirmed successful logistics interdiction at Temryuk. Diplomatic Activity (FACT): Ukrainian and U.S. delegations concluded strategic negotiations in Miami. The outcome is unknown (Gap P11), but the timing is highly relevant to the Stepnohorsk operational crisis.

Setbacks: The operational window to commit the BRAVO-BLOCK reserve without incurring significant mine-related losses due to "Mangas" deployment is now past.

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

CRITICAL REQUIREMENT: The immediate, tactical deployment of Mine Clearing Line Charges (MCLCs) and other anti-mobility counter-measures (e.g., mine rollers, specialized breaching teams) to accompany the mechanized elements of the BRAVO-BLOCK reserve. This tactical requirement is now non-negotiable for counter-attack success.

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4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain)

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5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future Operations)

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA) (Confidence: HIGH)

RF forces (37th GMRB) will continue to press the breach at Stepnohorsk, utilizing the tactical advantage gained by rapid UAS-RMAO ("Mangas"). They will prioritize the establishment of a defensive perimeter at Phase Line BRAVO or slightly beyond, protected by the new minefields. The 38th GMRB will maintain high fixation pressure (P1 Gap) to prevent the timely redeployment of UAF reserves, leveraging the expected delay caused by UAF forces needing to de-mine their own counter-attack corridors.

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA) (Confidence: HIGH)

The "Mangas" deployed minefields successfully isolate the committed BRAVO-BLOCK reserve elements. RF launches a coordinated strike targeting the Dnipro C2 node (as predicted in previous reports), utilizing the claimed AD success (41 UAVs downed) to deter UAF counter-AD activity. Simultaneous UAF C2 failure and heavy reserve loss due to mine-trapping allows the 37th GMRB to achieve operational breakout depth towards the city of Zaporizhzhia.

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points (CRITICAL)

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6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS AND COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS

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7. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS

7.1. Operational Maneuver and Force Protection (J3 / J7)

ACTION: EXECUTE COUNTER-BREACH PROTOCOL WITH INTEGRATED MINE-CLEARANCE

1. Reserve Movement (IMMEDIATE): J3 MUST ISSUE THE COUNTER-ATTACK ORDER (BRAVO-BLOCK). Order must explicitly mandate that initial mechanized elements (e.g., tanks, IFVs) are preceded by Mine Clearing Line Charges (MCLC) or mine rollers during ingress to assumed compromised AoAs.
2. Infantry/Armor Disjunction: Commanders must assume mine barriers are in place. Prioritize dismounted infantry movement through suspected "Mangas" deployment zones until MCLC assets clear lanes.
3. UGV Counter-Action: Forward defenders must increase volume of fire using HMG/AGL assets against the low-profile "Kuryer" UGVs to disable their breaching function before they create exploitable gaps.

7.2. Fires and Targeting (J2 / J3)

ACTION: COUNTER-MANGAS TARGETING PRIORITY

1. UAS FOL Targeting: Shift remaining counter-battery/HIMARS priority immediately to suspected "Mangas" UAS Forward Operating Locations (FOLs) or assembly areas supporting the GTV Vostok logistics train. Deny RF the ability to mass or resupply this new capability.
2. Rail Interdiction: Increase vigilance on rail choke points leading into the Southern Axis, exploiting the confirmed logistics center instability (P12).

7.3. Electronic Warfare and Air Defense (J6 / AD Command)

ACTION: EW JAMMING BOXES AND AD COORDINATION

1. EW Prioritization (CRITICAL): Establish immediate, high-power, multi-band EW jamming boxes over all designated BRAVO-BLOCK maneuver corridors to neutralize both the "Kuryer" UGV control links and, most critically, the "Mangas" UAS command frequency (P2).
2. AD Posture: Maintain maximum readiness for the potential RF MDCOA (Dnipro C2 strike). Do not permit the RF claim of 41 downed UAVs to degrade focus on high-priority AD assets protecting command nodes.

7.4. Strategic Communications (STRATCOM / J7)

ACTION: EXPLOIT DIPLOMATIC MOMENTUM

1. Immediate Inquiry into Miami Outcome (P11): STRATCOM must coordinate with diplomatic channels to quickly ascertain and disseminate details of any confirmed agreements, framing them as a robust, coordinated response to the Stepnohorsk MLD.
2. Counter-Diversion: Issue a brief, sharp statement dismissing the RF saturation of international news as "a desperate attempt to mask operational aggression and heavy losses at Stepnohorsk."