Sitrep 2025-12-05 02:34:31

MILITARY INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (MISREP) 25-12-05/028

TIME: 050235Z DEC 2025 SUBJECT: ESCALATION CONFIRMED: MLD ADVANCE SUPPORTED BY HIGH-INTENSITY FIRES (TOS-1A) AND MULTI-AXIS UAV SATURATION (DNIPRO/KHARKIV). PRIORITY: IMMEDIATE AIR DEFENSE (AD) RESOURCE ALLOCATION AND MANEUVER RESERVE COMMITMENT.

1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (Current Operational Picture)

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

The operational environment is characterized by peak kinetic activity along the Zaporizhzhia axis and expanding multi-domain threats across Central and Northern Ukraine.

Stepnohorsk/Pryiut Axis (Zaporizhzhia): High-intensity kinetic pressure persists. Confirmation of a successful RF FPV ambush on UAF armored vehicles near Pryiut (02:05Z) indicates effective tactical exploitation by the 33rd MRP reconnaissance elements.
Huliaipole Sector: RF forces deployed TOS-1A "Solntsepek" systems to destroy a UAF strongpoint near Huliaipole (02:09Z). This confirms RF intent to use overwhelming firepower to degrade defenses adjacent to the main MLD penetration axis (Stepnohorsk).
Air Domain Saturation (New Threat): A new, confirmed UAV threat is tracking toward Kharkiv from the North (02:21Z). This third critical air defense requirement (in addition to existing Dnipro and KAB threats) significantly complicates UAF resource allocation.

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

Conditions remain optimal for UAV/drone operations and heavy mechanized maneuver.

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)

UAF forces are now executing a three-front AD response (Dnipro, Kharkiv, and KAB defense over Zaporizhzhia). This high demand for AD resources is forcing the immediate exposure of forward maneuver elements at Phase Line BRAVO. J3 confirmation of the 50% BRAVO-BLOCK reserve commitment is overdue, creating high risk given the TOS-1A usage.

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

Intention: RF is attempting to achieve command paralysis and AD saturation through synchronized kinetic and non-kinetic actions, creating a window for the 37th GMRB MLD to achieve a decisive breakthrough.

New Tactical/Technological Adaptation (Reinforced Judgment): RF tactical units are showing highly efficient integration of FPV drone reconnaissance (using standardized COTS protocols like RadioMaster TX12) with immediate fires and ambushes (Pryiut). The TOS-1A deployment confirms the prioritization of speed and decisive penetration over resource conservation in the Stepnohorsk push.

2.2. Logistics and Sustainment Status (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)

The commitment of high-value assets like the TOS-1A reinforces the previous assessment: RF is maximizing the use of readily available heavy munitions (Thermobaric rounds) and kinetic assets to achieve a breakthrough before the fuel/logistics constraint (estimated 050400Z - 051800Z) forces the MLD to culminate.

2.3. Command and Control Effectiveness (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

The coordination of heavy fire support (TOS-1A Huliaipole), tactical drone exploitation (Pryiut), and multi-domain UAV saturation (Dnipro, Kharkiv) demonstrates highly effective operational synchronization across the RF Southern/Eastern Military Districts.

3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking)

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)

Readiness remains high, but command assets are under immediate, sustained electronic and kinetic threat. The AD stress resulting from the simultaneous Dnipro and Kharkiv UAV threats introduces significant vulnerability.

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

Tactical Setback (Fact): Loss of a Kozak BMM near Pryiut. This confirms RF forces are utilizing FPV assets to interdict immediate UAF tactical maneuver and logistics in the deep defensive zone.

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

AD Constraint (CRITICAL): UAF AD resources are now fragmented by three high-priority requirements. Failure to immediately neutralize the Dnipro UAV (P6) threat combined with the necessity of re-tasking AD to Kharkiv will fatally expose high-value assets.

4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain)

Domain	Finding (FACT/Observation/Judgment)	Confidence	Impact on Operations
US Political Signaling	US official (Vance) stated "Good news in the coming weeks" regarding peace progress (02:20Z).	HIGH (Fact)	High-Risk Political IO. This statement risks creating political distraction or encouraging premature expectations of de-escalation precisely when RF is executing maximum kinetic effort. May embolden RF command.
RF Tactical Morale	Pro-RF channels disseminated music videos ("Anthem of Military Volunteers") and combat footage (TOS-1A, FPV ambushes).	HIGH (Fact)	Sustains Narrative of Success. Direct psychological operations aimed at maintaining high morale and recruiting visibility for RF combat units during the MLD.
RF Strategic Messaging	TASS reporting on domestic, non-military administrative issues (Babkina trademark lapse).	HIGH (Observation)	Normalizes Conflict/Diversion. Continues the RF domestic strategy of blending war news with mundane domestic content to project stability and minimize the conflict's actual costs.

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future Operations)

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA) (Confidence: HIGH)

RF will execute UAV saturation attacks on both Dnipro (time-sensitive) and Kharkiv (diversionary/ISR) within the next 45 minutes (NLT 050320Z). The 37th GMRB will follow the Solntsepek fire preparation near Huliaipole/Stepnohorsk, launching the final breaching effort with the "Kuryer" UGV spearhead before the RF kinetic culmination (050400Z).

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA) (Confidence: HIGH)

The simultaneous UAV saturation (Dnipro/Kharkiv) achieves full AD paralysis, allowing both the Dnipro C2 node to be struck and the Kharkiv threat to transition into an effective deep strike or large-scale ISR mission. With UAF Command fragmented, the 37th GMRB MLD breaches Phase Line BRAVO under overwhelming TOS-1A/KAB fires, leading to rapid, uncontained exploitation toward Huliaipole.

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points (UPDATED)

Event	Estimated Time Frame	Decision Point	Status Change
Dnipro UAV Intercept/Strike	NLT 050245Z	CRITICAL (NOW): AD must neutralize threat (P6).	IMMEDIATE
Kharkiv UAV Status/Intercept	NLT 050300Z	AD Command must allocate resources without compromising Dnipro defense.	URGENT
MLD Penetration Assessment (P5)	NLT 050245Z	J3 must receive assessment to justify commitment of the remaining 50% reserve.	CRITICAL (NOW)
Final Reserve Allocation Decision	NLT 050300Z	Decision point for the remaining 50% BRAVO-BLOCK reserve vector (Stepnohorsk or Huliaipole Flank).	IMMEDIATE

6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS AND COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS

Priority	Gap Description	Required Action	Confidence Impact
P1 (CRITICAL - MANEUVER/FLANK)	Vector and immediate intention of the 38th GMRB. (Unchanged)	ISR Tasking (IMINT/HUMINT): Dedicated observation of 38th GMRB staging areas.	HIGH, dictates final commitment of operational reserves.
P6 (CRITICAL - EW/TECH)	Precise operating frequencies and command protocols (e.g., OpenTX/EdgeTX) associated with the RadioMaster TX12 COTS system used by "Ovod" drones.	IMMEDIATE ELINT/EW Tasking: Prioritize jamming profiles on 2.4 GHz in Dnipropetrovsk region.	CRITICAL for mitigating the deep-strike threat.
P7 (NEW - AD SATURATION)	Type, volume, and intended target of the Kharkiv UAV ingress.	IMMEDIATE AD/ISR Tasking: Airborne/Ground radar focus on the Northern approach corridor to Kharkiv.	HIGH, informs whether Kharkiv is a diversion or a primary strike target.

7. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS

7.1. Electronic Warfare and Air Defense (J6 / AD Command)

ACTION: RESOURCE TRIAGE AND COTS COUNTERMEASURES.

Prioritized AD Triage (IMMEDIATE): Divert the minimum necessary mobile AD assets to cover high-value civilian infrastructure in Kharkiv. Maintain maximum, uncompromising AD and EW coverage over the Dnipro C2 node. The Kharkiv threat is assessed as secondary to the Dnipro C2 decapitation attempt.
EW Protocol Execution: Confirm the immediate activation of specialized EW profiles targeting COTS frequencies (2.4 GHz) in the Dnipro/Zaporizhzhia AORs (P6 requirement).
Counter-Repeater Operations: Utilize tactical UAVs (e.g., Leleka/Shark) with electronic detection capability to hunt for fixed SRC 7 Repeater systems in the Dnipro-Krynychky-Bozhedarivka corridor.

7.2. Operational Maneuver and Force Protection (J3 / J7)

ACTION: FULL RESERVE COMMITMENT AND COUNTER-FIRE.

Reserve Commitment (IMMEDIATE): J3 must confirm the commitment of the first 50% of the BRAVO-BLOCK reserve. This action is necessitated by the high-intensity fires (TOS-1A) and tactical losses (Pryiut).
Remaining Reserve Vectoring (NLT 050300Z): The remaining 50% of the BRAVO-BLOCK reserve must be put on 10-minute readiness. The primary contingency vector remains the 38th GMRB flanking route (P1 gap resolution), but rapid re-vectoring to Stepnohorsk breach defense must be maintained.
Force Protection: All maneuver units near Phase Line BRAVO must adjust formation and dispersal protocols to mitigate the known effects of TOS-1A saturation fire.

7.3. Fires and Targeting (J2 / J3)

ACTION: COUNTER-BATTERY AND CONSOLIDATION INTERDICTION.

TOS-1A Counter-Battery (CRITICAL): Prioritize immediate counter-battery fire (HIMARS/Artillery) against the confirmed TOS-1A "Solntsepek" deployment area near Huliaipole (02:09Z). This asset must be neutralized to prevent the rapid collapse of adjacent UAF defenses.
MLD Follow-on Interdiction: Maintain maximum deep suppression fires on 37th GMRB mechanized concentrations and identified assembly areas to accelerate their culmination point.

Situation Report