Situation Report

MILITARY INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (MISREP) 25-12-05/024

TIME: 050045Z DEC 2025 SUBJECT: STEPNOHORSK MLD INITIATION IMMINENT (NLT 050030Z). RF LOGISTICS CRITICAL POST-SYZRAN STRIKE. IMMEDIATE COUNTER-UGV DOCTRINE IMPLEMENTATION REQUIRED. PRIORITY: URGENCY: FULL COMBAT READINESS AT PHASE LINE BRAVO. J3 MUST RESOLVE P1 FLANKING GAP NLT 050130Z.

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1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (Current Operational Picture)

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

The operational focus remains the Stepnohorsk Axis, where the RF 37th GMRB MLD is scheduled to initiate ground maneuver imminently. The immediate kinetic preparation phase has concluded in the South but has broadened to the North-East.

• Stepnohorsk Axis (Zaporizhzhia): The primary RF assault corridor. All indicators point to MLD initiation NLT 050030Z. UAF forces are positioned along Phase Line BRAVO.
• North-Eastern Direction (Sumy/Kharkiv): Confirmed activation of RF tactical aviation resulting in Guided Aerial Bomb (KAB) strikes targeting Sumy Oblast (050026Z). This activity likely serves to fix UAF mobile AD/EW assets and pin reserve forces in the North-East, preventing reinforcement of the Stepnohorsk sector.
• Kozyatyn Corridor (Deep Logistics): Threat level remains temporarily low following successful UAF AD neutralization (042349Z).

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

No change. Conditions remain suitable for combined arms maneuver and low-altitude fixed-wing/UAV operations.

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

UAF mobile AD/EW assets are currently executing the critical eastbound redeployment from Vinnytsia/Kyiv toward the Dnipropetrovsk/Stepnohorsk sector. The confirmed air activity over Sumy may slow this redeployment as C2 prioritizes defense of the newly targeted northern sector. The BRAVO-BLOCK operational reserve remains dispersed, awaiting resolution of the 38th GMRB flanking threat (P1).

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2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

Intention: RF remains committed to the kinetic penetration of Phase Line BRAVO at Stepnohorsk NLT 050030Z. The goal is rapid, decisive penetration to offset critical logistics constraints. Capability: The 37th GMRB retains the necessary maneuver forces and tactical air support (locally supplied by the Sumy KAB elements) for the initial breach, led by the confirmed "Kuryer" UGV technology. Adaptation (NEW): Increased use of tactical aviation (KABs) in secondary sectors (Sumy) to divert UAF attention and strain C2 decision-making during the MLD launch window.

2.2. Logistics and Sustainment Status (CONFIDENCE: CRITICAL)

CONFIRMED SEVERE DETERIORATION. Local reports confirm a successful deep strike against the Syzran oil refinery (Samara Oblast) (050014Z). This strike, compounded by the previous Temryuk Port attack (confirmed by UAF 050025Z), represents a critical systemic shock to RF fuel supply infrastructure.

JUDGEMENT: The confirmed loss of two major fuel processing/distribution points drastically reduces the sustainability of the MLD. While the 37th GMRB has enough fuel for the launch, sustained operations beyond 48 hours are now assessed as highly improbable without major rationing or external resupply. This operational constraint further increases the urgency and risk tolerance of the RF command to achieve breakthrough speed.

2.3. Command and Control Effectiveness (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)

RF C2 successfully initiated synchronized KAB strikes across multiple regions (Zaporizhzhia, Sumy), demonstrating coordination across operational zones despite deep strike disruptions. However, the failure to protect two key logistics nodes (Temryuk and Syzran) within a 6-hour window suggests a critical vulnerability in RF strategic security or AD coverage of non-frontline critical infrastructure.

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3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking)

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

UAF readiness remains high. Forces at Phase Line BRAVO are on Code Red alert, preparing for the UGV-led breach.

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

SUCCESSES (NEW):

1. Strategic Disruption: Confirmed successful deep strike on the Syzran Oil Refinery. This maximizes pressure on the enemy just prior to the MLD launch.
2. Information Exploitation: UAF officially confirmed the successful attack on Temryuk Port, leveraging kinetic success for information superiority.

SETBACKS:

1. The expansion of KAB activity to Sumy Oblast creates new demands on C2 and AD assets actively repositioning, potentially slowing the redeployment critical to the Stepnohorsk defense.

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

The primary tactical constraint remains the availability of Counter-UGV resources (HMG/AGL ammunition). The strategic constraint is the successful and timely relocation of AD/EW assets to the Stepnohorsk theater while simultaneously managing the new air threat in the North-East.

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4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain)

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5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future Operations)

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA) (Confidence: HIGH)

RF will execute the MLD at Stepnohorsk NLT 050030Z. The assault will be led by "Kuryer" UGVs. Due to the catastrophic fuel losses (Temryuk/Syzran), the RF 37th GMRB will maximize tactical speed and risk-taking during the breach. They will attempt to achieve a breakout immediately to secure key terrain that can be held with minimal sustainment. KAB strikes in the Sumy region will continue for the next 03 hours (NLT 050345Z) to fix UAF AD resources.

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA) (Confidence: MEDIUM)

The RF 37th GMRB MLD achieves a rapid, shallow penetration at Stepnohorsk. Simultaneously, the 38th GMRB (Huliaipole flank) bypasses the fixed UAF defenders (P1 Intelligence Gap remains unresolved) and launches a mechanized exploitation move. This dual-axis pressure coincides with a precision strike against a UAF forward C2 node in the Dnipropetrovsk region, causing C2 paralysis just as the BRAVO-BLOCK reserve is required for commitment.

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points

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6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS AND COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS

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7. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS

7.1. Operational Maneuver and Force Protection (J3 / J7)

ACTION: MAXIMIZE COUNTER-UGV EFFORT; PREPARE FOR LOGISTICS-DRIVEN CULMINATION.

1. Stepnohorsk Tactical Doctrine (IMMEDIATE): Issue command to all units at Phase Line BRAVO: Execute counter-UGV doctrine now. Priority engagement for all HMGs (12.7mm and above) and AGLs is the low-profile "Kuryer" UGV assets. Units are to assume that the RF MLD will attempt to bypass fixed defenses rapidly (due to fuel constraints), and therefore, the prevention of mine-breaching is the key to defense.
2. AD/EW Task Re-prioritization: Despite Sumy KAB activity, maintain the primary mission of eastward redeployment of AD/EW assets to the Stepnohorsk OZ. Utilize reserve/local SHORAD to manage the Sumy threat. Do not allow the secondary KAB axis to paralyze the defense of the main effort.
3. Reserve Holding: Hold the BRAVO-BLOCK reserve until 050130Z. J3 must be prepared to commit the reserve immediately at that time, irrespective of P1 resolution, if the 37th GMRB achieves any penetration depth greater than 1,000 meters.

7.2. Fires and Targeting (J2 / J3)

ACTION: CAPITALIZE ON LOGISTICS DEGRADATION.

1. Interdiction Fires (Immediate): Commence deep artillery and mortar fires across RF concentration areas at Stepnohorsk immediately upon confirmed MLD launch (NLT 050030Z) to disrupt the coordination of follow-on mechanized forces with the UGV breach team.
2. Strategic Targeting (Urgent): Re-task remaining long-range strike assets to identify and hit the most likely rail/road transfer points supplying fuel to the Zaporizhzhia axis. Maximize the effect of the Syzran and Temryuk strikes by creating localized operational fuel shortages within the next 12 hours.

7.3. Strategic Communications (STRATCOM / J7)

ACTION: COUNTER RF NARRATIVES WITH KINETIC SUCCESS.

1. Immediate Information Release: Coincide the release of the $10.6 Billion UK asset transfer and the $500M Patriot deal announcements simultaneously with the MLD launch time (050030Z). Frame the assault as the RF military attempting to move before their logistics fail entirely.
2. Highlight Logistics Failure: Publicly confirm the Syzran and Temryuk attacks (without claiming responsibility) through carefully managed media leaks, emphasizing the vulnerability of Russian infrastructure and contrasting it with RF propaganda about economic stability and military strength (pensions/Rubicon).