Sitrep 2025-12-05 00:04:31

MILITARY INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (MISREP) 25-12-05/023

TIME: 050015Z DEC 2025 SUBJECT: STEPNOHORSK MLD IMMINENT. KOZYATYN AXIS DEGRADED BUT NOT NEUTRALIZED. FOCUS SHIFTS TO COUNTER-UGV DOCTRINE AND 38TH GMRB FLANKING THREAT. PRIORITY: URGENCY: SHIFT AD/EW ASSETS EASTWARD. PREPARE FOR GROUND MANEUVER LAUNCH NLT 050030Z.

1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (Current Operational Picture)

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

The immediate kinetic preparation phase targeting UAF operational depth has culminated. Initial UAF Mobile Air Defense (AD) response in the Vinnytsia corridor has successfully degraded the primary deep threat axis.

Western Logistics Corridor (THREAT MITIGATED, NOT ELIMINATED): Local reports confirm successful engagement and neutralization ("minus") of UAV elements in Vinnytsia Oblast (042349Z). This temporarily reduces the high probability of a kinetic strike on the Kozyatyn rail nexus between 042330Z and 050000Z, validating the immediate AD re-tasking command from MISREP 022.
Kyiv/Central Axis: Air raid alerts lifted in Kyiv (042347Z), confirming the immediate threat to the capital/Northern C2 nodes has passed. This frees up limited AD assets for repositioning east or south.
Stepnohorsk Axis: Operational lull persists, indicating the preceding KAB barrage has concluded and the RF 37th GMRB is currently in the final stages of movement initiation. The Main Land Drive (MLD) remains imminent.

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

No change. Weather remains suitable for low-altitude UAV/Shahed operations and ground maneuver.

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

UAF mobile AD/EW assets must immediately begin redeploying from the Vinnytsia/Kyiv corridor toward the Dnipropetrovsk/Zaporizhzhia axis. The successful defense of Kozyatyn provides a limited window (approx. 60 minutes) to conduct this critical shift before the RF MLD dictates asset usage. The BRAVO-BLOCK operational reserve remains dispersed, reducing its vulnerability to residual deep strikes.

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

Intention: RF goal remains the kinetic penetration of Phase Line BRAVO at Stepnohorsk NLT 050030Z. The failure to fully paralyze UAF logistics deep strike (Kozyatyn) necessitates immediate ground action to exploit the existing heavy KAB preparation effects. Adaptation: Expect RF to maintain high EW and electronic reconnaissance efforts over the Kozyatyn corridor for the next 06 hours, attempting to confirm the reserve status and identifying the effectiveness of UAF AD counter-measures.

2.2. Logistics and Sustainment Status (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

CONFIRMED DETERIORATION: Official RF operational confirmation of the Temryuk Port attack (042348Z) solidifies the assessment of long-term fuel resupply degradation. JUDGEMENT: This confirmed logistics constraint forces the RF 37th GMRB to adhere strictly to the NLT 050030Z launch window. RF commanders cannot afford a delayed start to the MLD, as sustained operations (beyond 48-72 hours) will rapidly encounter friction due to fuel rationing. This operational urgency may increase tactical risk-taking during the breach phase.

2.3. Command and Control Effectiveness (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)

RF C2 executed a complex, synchronized multi-axis deep strike. The neutralization of initial UAV waves in Vinnytsia suggests UAF AD C2 reacted faster than RF could execute terminal guidance. We assess that RF deep fire elements may be decoupled from the MLD due to the failure of the final targeting phase.

3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking)

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

UAF readiness is high, and the rapid, successful response to the Kozyatyn threat vector has maintained the integrity of the strategic reserve. Operational focus must now fully pivot to the ground threat at Stepnohorsk.

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

SUCCESSES (NEW):

Kinetic Mitigation: Confirmed "minus" of UAV elements in the critical Vinnytsia/Kozyatyn corridor (042349Z). This buys critical time for the BRAVO-BLOCK reserve.
Strategic Confirmation: Official RF confirmation of the Temryuk port strike validates UAF deep strike capabilities.

SETBACKS:

The immediate AD pressure forced a critical resource constraint and high risk tolerance in secondary AD sectors (Cherkasy/Pavlohrad), which may face residual UAV/precision strike risks as assets shift.

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

The core constraint shifts from deep AD/EW coverage to Counter-UGV resources (HMG ammunition, AGL/20-30mm HE rounds) at Stepnohorsk. There is an immediate requirement to replenish SHORAD/EW platforms that expended resources during the Vinnytsia defense phase.

4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain)

Domain	Finding (FACT/Observation/Judgment)	Confidence	Impact on Operations
RF Internal Control (New)	Mizulina/LSI initiating action to restrict Roblox access (042339Z).	HIGH (Observation)	Indicates a high internal focus on social control and censorship. Functions as a domestic distraction from the impending military operation and confirmed logistics setbacks (Temryuk).
RF International IO	TASS leveraging Indian media to praise Putin (042348Z).	HIGH (Observation)	Standard effort to project diplomatic stability and global influence, timed to mask the urgency and risk associated with the MLD launch.
RF PsyOps (New)	Sensationalized reports of UAF citizens attacking an alleged "Putin daughter" in Paris (042339Z).	MEDIUM (Judgment)	Low-level, localized disinformation effort designed to frame Ukrainians as disorderly and obsessive, supporting the overall RF narrative of military necessity.
UAF Counter-Narrative	(Previous MISREP) Immediate priority remains broadcasting the UK $10.6B asset transfer and the $500M Patriot deal to neutralize RF IO efforts during the MLD.	HIGH (Judgment)	Critical for maintaining internal and external resolve as the ground assault begins.

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future Operations)

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA) (Confidence: HIGH)

RF will execute the MLD at Stepnohorsk NLT 050030Z. The lead elements will utilize "Kuryer" UGVs to breach forward mine belts under heavy mortar and artillery fire. Due to the degraded deep strike effectiveness, RF will rely more heavily on tactical surprise and speed to penetrate Phase Line BRAVO before UAF fire support can be fully brought to bear. The 38th GMRB will maintain high fixation pressure on Dobropillya.

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA) (Confidence: MEDIUM)

The 37th GMRB MLD achieves initial success at Stepnohorsk due to effective UGV mine-clearing. Simultaneously, the 38th GMRB (Huliaipole flank) bypasses the fixed UAF defenders at Dobropillya, confirmed by the unresolved P1 intelligence gap, and initiates rapid mechanized movement northwest toward the tactical rear of the Zaporizhzhia axis. This coordinated ground action forces the premature commitment of the BRAVO-BLOCK reserve into a two-front battle.

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points

Event	Estimated Time Frame	Decision Point	Status Change
MLD Breakthrough Initiation	050030Z - 050130Z	IMMEDIATE: Full implementation of counter-UGV doctrine at Stepnohorsk. Commit dedicated AD/EW assets now.	CRITICAL (IMMINENT)
AD Asset Redeployment Window	050015Z - 050100Z	IMMEDIATE: Redirect mobile AD/EW assets eastward toward Dnipropetrovsk/Stepnohorsk sector.	NEW WINDOW (Open)
38th GMRB Flanking Confirmation	NLT 050200Z DEC	J3 Decision: Final commit/route of BRAVO-BLOCK reserve. Resolution of P1 Gap is paramount.	UNCHANGED (CRITICAL)

6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS AND COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS

Priority	Gap Description	Required Action	Confidence Impact
P1 (CRITICAL - MANEUVER/FLANK)	Vector and immediate intention of the 38th GMRB (Huliaipole/Varvarivka sector). Confirm if flanking maneuver is initiating NOW to synchronize with the MLD.	ISR Tasking (IMINT/HUMINT): Immediate, continuous observation of the 38th GMRB staging areas, focusing on road junctions NW of Dobropillya.	HIGH, dictates final commitment of operational reserves.
P2 (CRITICAL - TECH/EW)	"Kuryer" UGV C2 Frequencies/Protocol. Requirement to enable effective electronic countermeasures/jamming.	ELINT Tasking (Stepnohorsk Sector): Continuous frequency sweep in 800 MHz – 5.8 GHz range to identify potential RF control links upon MLD initiation.	CRITICAL for tactical defense success against mine-clearing elements.
P3 (FIRES)	Confirmation of residual deep strike capability targeting Kozyatyn. (Are additional deep strike assets (e.g., Iskander-K) en route despite UAV loss?)	SIGINT/SATCOM Tasking: Focus intercept on RF long-range fire control nets for indication of non-UAV guided strikes targeting Vinnytsia Oblast.	MEDIUM, confirms if reserve dispersion must be maintained.

7. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS

7.1. Operational Maneuver and Force Protection (J3 / J7)

ACTION: IMMEDIATE PIVOT TO STEPNOHORSK COUNTER-UGV DEFENSE.

AD/EW Reassignment (Time Sensitive): Immediately shift all mobile AD/EW assets that successfully defended the Vinnytsia corridor (Kozyatyn/Turbiv) eastward to the Dnipropetrovsk Operational Zone (OZ) to prepare for defense against follow-on tactical aviation or reconnaissance over the MLD axis. Utilize the current kinetic lull for rapid movement.
Stepnohorsk Tactical Doctrine: Issue a Code Red alert to all units in the 37th GMRB sector: Maximize AGL and HMG saturation fire on identified "Kuryer" UGV penetration axes. Conserve ATGM assets for follow-on mechanized infantry fighting vehicles (IFVs). UGV destruction must be the highest priority to prevent effective mine-breaching.
Reserve Status: Maintain the BRAVO-BLOCK reserve in its current dispersed, masked configuration. Commanders must be prepared for immediate commitment (within 90 minutes) based on P1 gap resolution (38th GMRB flanking move) or confirmation of 37th GMRB penetration.

7.2. Fires and Targeting (J2 / J3)

ACTION: SUPPORT COUNTER-MLD AND EXPLOIT LOGISTICS FAILURE.

Interdiction Fires: Prioritize immediate and continuous artillery fires (including cluster munitions if authorized) across suspected RF concentration and staging areas immediately behind the Stepnohorsk forward line (NLT 050030Z) to disrupt troop-to-task synchronization after the UGV breach.
Logistics Exploitation: Re-task all available deep strike assets to target confirmed RF rail nodes likely stocking fuel tank cars, maximizing the tactical effect of the confirmed Temryuk port damage.

7.3. Strategic Communications (STRATCOM / J7)

ACTION: NEUTRALIZE RF IO DURING MLD LAUNCH.

Decisive Counter-Strike: Coordinate the dissemination of the $10.6 Billion UK asset transfer and the $500M Patriot deal NLT 050030Z, exactly coinciding with the expected MLD launch. Use these announcements to rhetorically frame the RF ground assault as a desperate, poorly supplied effort against a newly fortified Ukraine.
Internal Resilience: Publicly confirm the successful Air Defense operation in Vinnytsia (Kozyatyn), contrasting UAF efficiency and defense effectiveness against the massive, costly, and now-degraded RF kinetic preparation.

Situation Report