Sitrep 2025-12-04 23:34:29

MILITARY INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (MISREP) 25-12-04/022

TIME: 042335Z DEC 2025 SUBJECT: ESCALATION CONFIRMED: RF UAV AXES PENETRATING DEEPER. CRITICAL THREAT TO BRAVO-BLOCK AXIS SHIFTING TO KOZYATYN/TURBIV CORRIDOR. STEPNOHORSK MLD IMMINENT. PRIORITY: EXTREME URGENCY: IMMEDIATE INTERDICTION AND DISPERSION REQUIRED TO PROTECT OPERATIONAL RESERVE.

1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (Current Operational Picture)

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

RF deep kinetic preparation continues across three distinct, synchronized UAV axes, designed to fix and neutralize UAF mobile Air Defense (AD) assets ahead of the Stepnohorsk Main Land Drive (MLD) NLT 050000Z.

Western Logistics Corridor (CRITICAL VULNERABILITY CONFIRMED): The UAV threat vector against the BRAVO-BLOCK operational reserve has deepened and shifted focus.
- Kozyatyn Axis: UAV group confirmed moving past Lypovets towards Kozyatyn (042308Z). Kozyatyn is a critical rail junction and potential staging area for the reserve, increasing the probability of a high-value kinetic strike target NLT 050000Z.
- Turbiv Axis: A secondary element is confirmed moving past Haysin toward Turbiv (042319Z), maintaining pressure on the primary road network linking Vinnytsia and the center.
Central AD Axis (EXPANDING THREAT): The secondary threat axis is now confirmed across two oblasts.
- Cherkasy Vector: UAVs are confirmed inbound to Cherkasy from Kirovohrad (042321Z, 042332Z). This forces the dispersal of AD resources further north and east.
- Pavlohrad Vector: UAV activity confirmed near Pavlohrad (042310Z), securing the threat to Dnipropetrovsk logistics and C2.
Zaporizhzhia Axis: Operational lull persists (042257Z), confirming the preceding KAB barrage has concluded. This suggests the RF 37th GMRB is now transitioning from kinetic preparation to movement initiation.

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

Conditions remain suitable for high-volume drone and long-range precision missile operations. Low visibility supports low-altitude RF asset penetration.

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

UAF Mobile AD assets are currently tasked across four oblasts (Vinnytsia, Cherkasy, Dnipropetrovsk, Kyiv). The immediate prioritization of the Kozyatyn/Turbiv corridor is mandatory, requiring the immediate reassignment of AD assets, accepting elevated risk in the secondary axes (Cherkasy/Pavlohrad).

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

Intention: RF goal is to kinetically paralyze UAF strategic depth (logistics/reserves) before the 37th GMRB launches its main assault at Stepnohorsk. The deep penetration toward the Kozyatyn rail hub confirms RF intelligence is prioritizing the interdiction of mechanized reinforcement or key rail movement. Synchronization: The timing of the maximal UAV penetration (peaking 042330Z - 050000Z) is perfectly synchronized with the expected launch window of the MLD, indicating a high level of inter-service coordination (Deep Fire/Ground Maneuver).

2.2. Logistics and Sustainment Status (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

CRITICAL DETERIORATION CONFIRMED: RF internal sources (TASS, ASTRA) confirm infrastructural damage at Temryuk Port (042327Z, 042332Z). This confirms significant long-term degradation of RF fuel resupply via the Sea of Azov/Black Sea littoral. JUDGEMENT: The confirmed logistics setback forces RF to accelerate the MLD initiation. RF commanders must achieve maximum tactical gain rapidly to capitalize on pre-positioned ammunition stocks before fuel constraints impose operational friction (NLT 48 hours).

2.3. Command and Control Effectiveness (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

RF C2 over UAV assets is demonstrably robust. The immediate and effective shift from the initial Hayvoron vector to the deeper Kozyatyn/Cherkasy vectors confirms rapid targeting adjustments in response to UAF AD movement.

3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking)

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

UAF posture is defensive and remains highly alert. The critical vulnerability is the exposed nature of the logistics and staging nodes in the Vinnytsia corridor (Kozyatyn). Strategic readiness depends entirely on neutralizing the current deep kinetic threat wave without revealing the location of the BRAVO-BLOCK reserve.

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

SUCCESSES:

Confirmed Logistics Interdiction: Official confirmation of infrastructure damage and fire at Temryuk Port.
Successful AD engagement is ongoing, though confirmation rates are suppressed by the scale of the current multi-axis attack.

CRITICAL OPERATIONAL SETBACK:

RF persistent intelligence has successfully driven deep reconnaissance into the core UAF logistics corridor (Kozyatyn/Turbiv), placing the BRAVO-BLOCK reserve in immediate, high-probability danger of targeted interdiction.

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

The core constraint remains the allocation and rapid deployment of mobile Air Defense and Electronic Warfare (EW) assets. The shift to the Kozyatyn rail corridor demands assets capable of rapidly covering extended rail lines and static infrastructure targets.

4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain)

Domain	Finding (FACT/Observation/Judgment)	Confidence	Impact on Operations
RF Strategic IO	TASS reports US Senator Vance hoping for "good news" on a peace settlement (042306Z).	HIGH (Observation)	Directly supports the RF campaign timing—simultaneously launching the MLD while projecting internal Western pressure for negotiations and cessation. Aims to induce UAF military hesitancy.
UAF Strategic IO Support	UK prepared to transfer $10.6B of frozen RF assets (The Times, 042319Z).	HIGH (Observation/Judgment)	CRITICAL COUNTER-NARRATIVE. High-value, concrete financial aid announcement that directly counters the RF narrative of "Western abandonment" and internal fracture (Vance commentary).
RF Internal Focus	TASS reports on civilian air travel normalization (042325Z).	HIGH (Observation)	Standardized effort to normalize internal life in Russia, masking the operational urgency and logistics losses (e.g., Temryuk).

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future Operations)

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA) (Confidence: HIGH)

The confirmed UAV penetration of the Kozyatyn axis will culminate in a synchronized precision strike targeting UAF rail logistics, equipment staging, or C2 nodes in the Kozyatyn-Turbiv area NLT 050000Z. Immediately following the strike, the RF 37th GMRB will commence the MLD at Stepnohorsk, utilizing the "Kuryer" UGV breach systems to exploit the shock and operational paralysis caused by the deep strike.

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA) (Confidence: HIGH)

The UAV group successfully guides a deep strike (e.g., Iskander-K/Kalibr) that strikes the Kozyatyn rail hub (042330Z - 050000Z), interdicting the flow of the BRAVO-BLOCK reserve and isolating the Zaporizhzhia axis entirely. Simultaneously, the 38th GMRB (Flank) is confirmed initiating movement from the Huliaipole area, turning the Stepnohorsk breach into a coordinated operational encirclement NLT 050400Z.

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points

Event	Estimated Time Frame	Decision Point	Status Change (Since 2305Z)
Reserve Interdiction Window (PEAK DANGER)	042330Z - 050000Z	IMMEDIATE Tactical Halt/Dispersion and AD Shielding of Kozyatyn Rail Hub.	CRITICAL SHIFT. Threat focus is now the Kozyatyn rail/road nexus.
MLD Breakthrough Initiation	NLT 050000Z DEC	E-WAR/COUNTER-UGV. Full implementation of counter-UGV doctrine at Stepnohorsk.	UNCHANGED (IMMINENT)
Central UAV Group Targeting	042345Z - 050100Z	AD Asset Allocation. Commit minimal assets to defend Cherkasy/Pavlohrad; prioritize Kozyatyn.	NEW THREAT AXIS (Cherkasy) CONFIRMED

6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS AND COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS

Priority	Gap Description	Required Action	Confidence Impact
P0 (CRITICAL - MANEUVER)	Current location, status, and route of the BRAVO-BLOCK reserve, specifically near Kozyatyn. (Critical given the confirmed UAV targeting shift.)	C2/J3 REPORTING: High Command confirmation of reserve status and implementation of immediate dispersion/halt NLT 042345Z.	CRITICAL for MDCOA mitigation.
P1 (CRITICAL - MANEUVER/FLANK)	Vector and immediate intention of the 38th GMRB (Huliaipole/Varvarivka sector). Confirm if they are initiating the flanking maneuver NOW to synchronize with the deep strike.	ISR Tasking (IMINT/HUMINT): Immediate, continuous observation of the 38th GMRB staging areas.	High, dictates commitment timing of Stepnohorsk local reserves.
P2 (CRITICAL - FIRES)	Specific target profile of the Kozyatyn UAV vector. (Are they targeting rail lines, fuel storage, or C2 nodes?)	SIGINT/ELINT Tasking: Focus intercept assets on the Kozyatyn corridor to identify C2 links and confirm specific payload/mission profile (targeting coordinates).	CRITICAL for efficient SHORAD placement.

7. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS

7.1. Operational Maneuver and Force Protection (J3 / J7)

ACTION: IMMEDIATE DEFENSE OF KOZYATYN CORRIDOR AND PREPARATION FOR MLD INITIATION.

Reserve Protection (BRAVO-BLOCK): ABSOLUTE PRIORITY: IMMEDIATE HALT AND MAXIMUM MASKING/DISPERSION. The reserve must not utilize the Kozyatyn rail or immediate road network until the current kinetic wave has been neutralized. If movement is essential, utilize terrain masking and EW cover, routing around the Kozyatyn axis.
Air Defense Re-tasking (DECISIVE POINT): IMMEDIATE RE-TASKING OF ALL MOBILE AD ASSETS (SHORAD/V-SHORAD) TO THE KOZYATYN RAIL HUB AND TURBIV ROAD NETWORK. Accept increased kinetic risk in Cherkasy and Pavlohrad for the next 60 minutes to neutralize the direct, imminent threat to the strategic reserve.
EW Deployment: Prioritize continuous, maximum power Electronic Warfare jamming across the Kozyatyn-Turbiv corridor (Vinnytsia Oblast) to deny terminal guidance capability to UAVs and follow-on precision strikes.

7.2. Fires and Targeting (J2 / J3)

ACTION: INTERDICT REPLACEMENT LOGISTICS AND PREPARE COUNTER-UGV FIRES.

Logistics Exploitation (Temryuk): Immediately task deep strike assets to target confirmed RF rail nodes that are likely to stage replacement fuel tank cars for the Southern Group of Forces (based on P3 intelligence gap from previous reports). Exploit the confirmed Temryuk damage.
Stepnohorsk Counter-UGV: Pre-position immediate and continuous suppressive fires targeting suspected UGV staging and breach points at Stepnohorsk NLT 042345Z, ahead of the confirmed MLD initiation window.

7.3. Strategic Communications (STRATCOM / J7)

ACTION: COUNTER RF IO TIMING.

Strategic Counter-Strike: Immediately coordinate with diplomatic partners to maximize the public dissemination of the confirmed $10.6 Billion UK asset transfer (042319Z). This must be used to neutralize the RF IO pressure generated by the Vance remarks (042306Z) and solidify internal morale during the MLD launch sequence.
Public Resilience: Reiterate UAF C2 stability and confirmed battlefield success (Temryuk), framing the current UAV barrage as a desperate, final kinetic effort before the failure of the main RF assault.

Situation Report