Sitrep 2025-12-04 23:04:32

MILITARY INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (MISREP) 25-12-04/021

TIME: 042305Z DEC 2025 SUBJECT: CRITICAL WINDOW ALERT: RF UAV GROUPS CONFIRMED PENETRATING BRAVO-BLOCK CORRIDOR (HAYVORON/HAYSIN AXIS). CONFIRMED KINETIC IMPACT ON TEMRYUK FUEL LOGISTICS. PRIORITY: EXTREME URGENCY: INTERDICT ALL UAV GROUPS OPERATING IN THE KIROVOHRAD/VINNYTSIA TRANSIT CORRIDOR.

1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (Current Operational Picture)

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

RF kinetic shaping operations are now active across two primary deep penetration axes, confirming a multi-echelon effort to maximize strain on UAF mobile Air Defense (AD) assets ahead of the Stepnohorsk Main Land Drive (MLD) NLT 050000Z.

Western Logistics Corridor (CRITICAL VULNERABILITY CONFIRMED): New UAV groups from Kirovohrad Oblast are confirmed penetrating deep into Vinnytsia Oblast, tracked specifically near Hayvoron and Haysin (042255Z, 042253Z). This vector directly traces the high-risk transit path for the BRAVO-BLOCK operational reserve, creating an immediate, high-confidence targeting opportunity for RF precision strikes (MDCOA).
Central AD Axis (NEW THREAT): A secondary group of UAVs is tracked moving from Donetsk Oblast into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (042239Z) on a Northwest bearing. This vector creates a new threat to central UAF command and logistics nodes (e.g., Dnipro area) and maximizes AD asset dispersal requirements.
Kyiv AD Drain: UAV activity persists near Vyshneve and over the capital (042237Z, 042244Z), continuing the intended mission of fixing static, high-value Surface-to-Air Missile (SAM) systems.
Zaporizhzhia Axis: Air alarms have been cancelled (042257Z), suggesting the initial phase of KAB strikes in preparation for the MLD may be concluding. Activity reported in the Huliaipole-Varvarivka sector (042236Z) reinforces the P1 intelligence gap regarding the 38th GMRB flanking vector.

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

No change. Conditions remain suitable for high-volume, low-level drone reconnaissance and kinetic missions, supporting RF kinetic overmatch efforts.

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

UAF Mobile AD resources are critically stressed. The concurrent requirement to address the immediate threat to BRAVO-BLOCK (Hayvoron corridor), manage the new Dnipropetrovsk threat, and maintain minimal coverage over Kyiv severely restricts responsiveness and asset concentration. The time to intercept the Hayvoron/Haysin group is the most critical constraint.

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

Intention: RF goal remains the kinetic isolation of the Stepnohorsk battlefield NLT 050000Z by interdicting the BRAVO-BLOCK reserve. The establishment of two distinct deep UAV axes (Western and Central) demonstrates a high capacity for multi-echelon targeting designed to overwhelm UAF AD coordination. Adaptation: The confirmed penetration into the Vinnytsia corridor via Hayvoron confirms RF intelligence has accurate or near-real-time knowledge of UAF reserve movement or projected routes.

2.2. Logistics and Sustainment Status (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

CRITICAL DETERIORATION: The UAF deep strike on Temryuk Commercial Seaport is confirmed to have caused major fires in fuel storage tanks (042255Z). This represents a significant, confirmed degradation of RF fuel resupply capacity for the Southern Group of Forces, compounding previous fuel depot losses (Voronezh/Tambov). JUDGEMENT: This confirmed logistics constraint increases the operational urgency for RF High Command to launch the 37th GMRB MLD immediately (NLT 050000Z), capitalizing on current ammunition stockpiles before fuel scarcity impacts mechanized operations.

2.3. Command and Control Effectiveness (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

RF C2 over its UAV assets remains highly effective and rapidly adaptive, as evidenced by the immediate shift and confirmed deep penetration of the Kirovohrad-Vinnytsia corridor following initial UAF AD successes in Vinnytsia proper.

3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking)

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

UAF remains in a high-alert defensive posture. Readiness is excellent, but mobile AD assets are being dynamically pulled in three directions (Kyiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Vinnytsia). The decision regarding the timing and route of the BRAVO-BLOCK reserve movement is now critical, as the risk of interdiction is imminent.

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

SUCCESSES:

CONFIRMED LOGISTICS INTERDICTION: Successful kinetic strike and confirmation of damage to fuel storage at the Temryuk Seaport.
UAF AD active and successful in engaging targets across multiple regions.

CRITICAL OPERATIONAL SETBACK:

RF persistent reconnaissance has successfully tracked or preempted the vulnerability of the BRAVO-BLOCK corridor, placing kinetic RF assets directly on the reserve's projected route (Hayvoron).

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

The single overriding constraint is the allocation of Mobile AD and Electronic Warfare (EW) assets. The threat is kinetic and requires immediate interception; EW must be utilized to deny terminal guidance capability in the Hayvoron/Haysin area.

4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain)

Domain	Finding (FACT/Observation/Judgment)	Confidence	Impact on Operations
RF International IO	TASS reports EU Commissioner proposes independent EU plan for conflict settlement (042250Z).	HIGH (Observation/Judgment)	RF exploits perceived divergence between EU and US strategic objectives. Aims to undermine UAF confidence in a unified international stance.
RF Morale/Internal IO	RF military channels disseminate report on potential deportation of Ukrainian refugees from Israel (042252Z).	HIGH (Observation)	A highly inflammatory narrative designed to trigger domestic panic and delegitimize international refugee support structures.
UAF Counter-Narrative	Presidential office addresses reports of Presidential aircraft "harassment" by drones (042254Z).	HIGH (Observation)	Attempts to manage the narrative surrounding RF efforts to create high-value psychological targeting attempts.

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future Operations)

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA) (Confidence: HIGH)

RF forces will synchronize the culmination of the deep strike kinetic preparation (targeting the BRAVO-BLOCK corridor) with the launch of the 37th GMRB MLD at Stepnohorsk. The UAV group penetrating the Hayvoron/Haysin area will guide a final high-precision strike (likely Iskander/Kalibr) targeting the main reserve body NLT 050000Z. The MLD initiates immediately after this strike.

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA) (Confidence: HIGH)

A precision missile strike, guided by the UAV groups confirmed in the Vinnytsia/Kirovohrad border, successfully interdicts the BRAVO-BLOCK reserve near Hayvoron (042300Z - 050000Z), causing catastrophic personnel and equipment losses. The paralysis of the strategic reserve facilitates a rapid, successful breach by the "Kuryer" UGV-led 37th GMRB at Stepnohorsk NLT 050400Z, forcing UAF to commit local reserves piecemeal.

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points

Event	Estimated Time Frame	Decision Point	Status Change (Since 2235Z)
Reserve Interdiction Window (PEAK DANGER)	042300Z - 050000Z	Immediate Tactical Halt or Route Change. Confirm physical AD/EW coverage of Hayvoron corridor.	IMMINENT THREAT. UAVs are on target axis.
MLD Breakthrough Initiation	NLT 050000Z DEC	E-WAR/COUNTER-UGV. Full implementation of counter-UGV doctrine at Stepnohorsk.	UNCHANGED (IMMINENT)
Dnipropetrovsk UAV Group Targeting	042330Z - 050100Z	AD Asset Deployment. Decide optimal allocation to intercept the Central Axis threat.	NEW THREAT AXIS CONFIRMED

6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS AND COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS

Priority	Gap Description	Required Action	Confidence Impact
P0 (CRITICAL - MANEUVER)	Current location, status, and route of the BRAVO-BLOCK reserve. (Crucial given the immediate, confirmed UAV threat axis.)	C2/J3 REPORTING: High Command confirmation of reserve status and implementation of immediate dispersion/halt NLT 042315Z.	CRITICAL for MDCOA mitigation.
P1 (CRITICAL - MANEUVER/FLANK)	Vector and immediate intention of the 38th GMRB (Huliaipole/Varvarivka sector). Confirm if they are fixed at Dobropillya or initiating a flanking maneuver.	ISR Tasking (IMINT/HUMINT): Prioritize immediate observation of the Huliaipole-Varvarivka area (042236Z sighting).	High, dictates commitment of Stepnohorsk local reserves.
P2 (CRITICAL - FIRES)	Target profile and trajectory of the new Central UAV Group (Donetsk/Dnipropetrovsk). (Is this a deep strike targeting C2 or a secondary AD drain?)	SIGINT/ELINT Tasking: Focus intercept assets on the Dnipropetrovsk corridor to identify specific drone C2 links and confirm payload/mission profile.	CRITICAL for efficient AD asset allocation.

7. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS

7.1. Operational Maneuver and Force Protection (J3 / J7)

ACTION: IMMEDIATE AD INTERDICTION AND RESERVE FORCE DISPERSION.

Reserve Protection (BRAVO-BLOCK): IMMEDIATE TACTICAL HALT OR MAX DISPERSION/TERRAIN MASKING. C2 must immediately order the BRAVO-BLOCK reserve to halt movement and maximize dispersion and camouflage, or execute an immediate, highly masked route change, until the current threat wave (Hayvoron/Haysin) is neutralized.
Air Defense Re-tasking (IMMEDIATE PRIORITY): SHIFT ALL AVAILABLE MOBILE AD/SHORAD TO THE HAYVORON-HAYSIN CORRIDOR. Accept temporary kinetic risk in Kyiv and Dnipropetrovsk to neutralize the direct, imminent threat to the strategic reserve. This is the decisive point of the deep battle preparation.
EW Deployment: Prioritize continuous, maximum power Electronic Warfare jamming across the Hayvoron/Haysin transit corridor (Vinnytsia/Kirovohrad border) to deny UAV guidance and targeting fidelity.

7.2. Fires and Targeting (J2 / J3)

ACTION: EXPLOIT TEMRYUK VULNERABILITY.

Logistics Exploitation: Reconfirm status of Temryuk fuel assets (P1 Gap resolved, impact confirmed). Based on confirmed fuel loss, increase targeting priority on RF rail nodes that would transport replacement fuel into Southern Russia/Crimea over the next 24-48 hours.
Stepnohorsk Counter-UGV Fires: Pre-position artillery and mortar assets to engage expected UGV breach lanes. Do not wait for visual confirmation; begin suppression fires on likely UGV staging areas NLT 042330Z.

7.3. Strategic Communications (STRATCOM / J7)

ACTION: COUNTER DIVISION AND REINFORCE RESILIENCE.

Counter-Narrative: Immediately publicize the confirmed success of the Temryuk strike. Frame it as a necessary kinetic response to RF escalation, neutralizing the morale impact of RF IO attempts (Israel refugee narrative, EU division).
Internal Resilience: Communicate UAF success in holding the line (Dobropillya/Zaporizhzhia AD lull) and emphasize the government's stability, directly countering the RF information efforts timed to coincide with the MLD.

Situation Report