Sitrep 2025-12-04 22:34:30

MILITARY INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (MISREP) 25-12-04/020

TIME: 042235Z DEC 2025 SUBJECT: CONTINUED KINETIC OVERMATCH EFFORT: RF UAV THREAT PERSISTS IN VINNYTSIA CORRIDOR DESPITE INITIAL UAF INTERCEPTIONS. UAF DEEP STRIKE ON TEMRYUK. PRIORITY: URGENT AD TRACKING AND INTERDICTION OF NEW UAV GROUPS ALONG MYKOLAIV/KIROVOHRAD AXIS.

1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (Current Operational Picture)

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

The RF kinetic shaping operation continues at maximum intensity across strategic depth, designed to precede the Stepnohorsk Main Effort Land Drive (MLD) NLT 050000Z.

Western Logistics Corridor (CRITICAL THREAT REMAINS): Despite confirmed successful UAF Air Defense (AD) engagements in Vinnytsia Oblast (042213Z), multiple fresh UAV groups are tracked moving along the Mykolaiv/Kirovohrad border, maintaining the Northwest trajectory toward the Vinnytsia logistics nodes and the BRAVO-BLOCK reserve transit corridor (042232Z).
Capital AD Drain Confirmed: Air alarms are active in Kyiv, with confirmed explosions and AD activity near the capital (042208Z, 042227Z). UAF Air Force confirms UAV vector approaching Kyiv from the Northeast (Brovary area) (042212Z). This confirms RF intent to drain high-value AD assets away from the Southern Axis.
UAF Deep Strike Success (PROBABLE): Initial reports indicate an attack on the Temryuk Commercial Seaport in Krasnodar Krai (042229Z). This critical infrastructure attack suggests successful exploitation of the previously identified air defense gap over Crimea/Southern RF logistics hubs.

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

Conditions remain conducive for persistent, high-volume, low-level drone reconnaissance and attack missions, allowing RF forces to maintain kinetic pressure across multiple domains.

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)

Mobile AD resources are successfully tracking and engaging targets, particularly in the priority Vinnytsia sector. However, the requirement to defend Kyiv simultaneously is stressing coverage capacity. The BRAVO-BLOCK reserve transit is highly vulnerable and under constant surveillance, requiring immediate re-tasking of the mobile AD screen to address the persistent, shifting Northwest-bound UAV groups.

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

Intention: RF goal remains the paralysis of UAF depth assets (Logistics and Reserves) concurrent with the final stages of kinetic preparation for the MLD at Stepnohorsk NLT 050000Z. The persistent, layered UAV attacks confirm the high priority of interdicting the BRAVO-BLOCK reserve.

Capabilities: RF demonstrates high capacity for multi-echelon UAV strikes, absorbing initial losses while immediately deploying follow-on waves along adjusted vectors (Mykolaiv/Kirovohrad border) to stress UAF mobile AD response times.

2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

RF has rapidly adjusted UAV ingress vectors, shifting the main focus of the Western attack from the center of Vinnytsia Oblast to the eastern border areas (Mykolaiv/Kirovohrad boundary) while maintaining the Northwestern bearing. This adaptation forces UAF mobile AD systems to reposition quickly under duress.

2.3. Logistics and Sustainment Status (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)

The reported UAF deep strike on the Temryuk Commercial Seaport (042229Z) targets RF maritime and potentially rail logistics, which support the Southern Group of Forces. If confirmed kinetic success, this will exacerbate the logistics constraints already imposed by the Voronezh/Tambov fuel depot losses, although ammunition sustainment remains sufficient for the immediate MLD.

2.4. Command and Control Effectiveness (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

RF C2 remains highly adaptive and effective, demonstrating the ability to rapidly shift UAV group control and targeting based on real-time UAF AD engagement data (e.g., immediate re-vectoring following the Vinnytsia intercept at 042213Z).

3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking)

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

UAF mobile AD units demonstrated successful localized kinetic engagement against the priority threat in Vinnytsia (042213Z). However, force posture remains defensively reactive, stretched between the critical need to protect the reserve transit and the requirement to defend the capital against the AD drain operation.

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

SUCCESSES:

Confirmed successful interception/downing of UAVs in the Vinnytsia corridor (042213Z).
Confirmed active and effective AD response in Kyiv (042227Z).
Probable kinetic success against the Temryuk Seaport, disrupting RF maritime logistics capacity.

CRITICAL OPERATIONAL SETBACK:

The persistent, layered UAV threat confirms the RF ability to maintain continuous reconnaissance and targeting data on the BRAVO-BLOCK operational area, significantly elevating the risk of a successful kinetic interdiction (MDCOA).

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

The primary constraint remains the allocation and responsiveness of Mobile AD Assets. Priority must shift from defending fixed points to dynamically tracking and engaging the new Northwest-bound UAV groups (Mykolaiv/Kirovohrad border) that are actively tracing the reserve's projected path.

4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain)

Domain	Finding (FACT/Observation/Judgment)	Confidence	Impact on Operations
RF Internal IO	RF military blogger channels broadcast morale-boosting videos of artillery operations (042215Z).	HIGH (Observation)	Standard IO effort to stabilize internal morale and project kinetic dominance just before the MLD launch.
Diplomatic Deflection	TASS reports Belgian Parliament applauded rejection of RF asset transfer (042232Z).	HIGH (Fact/Judgment)	RF utilizes minor EU internal disputes to project division and minimize the strategic impact of international sanctions and frozen assets. Low tactical relevance.
UAF Internal Support	Ukrainian media publishes schedules for state financial aid payments (042222Z).	HIGH (Observation)	Standard counter-narrative promoting stability and government functionality against RF 'collapse' narratives.

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future Operations)

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA) (Confidence: HIGH)

RF will maintain maximum kinetic pressure on the logistics corridors and C2 nodes (Vinnytsia/Synelnykove) until 050000Z. The MLD at Stepnohorsk will initiate NLT 050000Z, utilizing UGV breaching elements, simultaneous with a final concentrated deep strike (likely Kinzhal/Iskander/Kalibr) guided by the persistent UAV waves, targeting a logistics hub in the Vinnytsia corridor designed to isolate the battlefield from the BRAVO-BLOCK reserve.

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA) (Confidence: HIGH)

The continuously tracking, re-vectorized UAV groups successfully guide a high-precision strike (Iskander or similar) against the main body of the BRAVO-BLOCK reserve while it is transiting the Kirovohrad/Vinnytsia border area (042300Z - 050000Z). The subsequent loss of the strategic reserve facilitates the 37th GMRB achieving a strategic penetration at Stepnohorsk NLT 051200Z, creating a major crisis for the Southern Defense Force.

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points

Event	Estimated Time Frame	Decision Point	Status Change (Since 2200Z)
Reserve Commitment (BRAVO-BLOCK)	IMMEDIATE. Must be moving with max EMCON.	EXECUTE MOVEMENT PLAN IMMEDIATELY.	CRITICAL VULNERABILITY. Constant tactical threat.
Western AD Protection Deployment	NOW (042235Z).	AD RE-TASKING & INTERDICTION. Dedicated mobile AD must shift assets to intercept the new UAV groups tracked along the Mykolaiv/Kirovohrad border.	URGENT NEED FOR SHIFTING FOCUS
MLD Breakthrough Initiation	NLT 050000Z DEC	E-WAR/COUNTER-UGV. Full implementation of counter-UGV doctrine at Stepnohorsk.	IMMINENT

6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS AND COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS

Priority	Gap Description	Required Action	Confidence Impact
P0 (CRITICAL - MANEUVER)	Current location and status of the BRAVO-BLOCK reserve (Confirmation of route, speed, and EMCON implementation).	C2/J3 REPORTING: High Command confirmation required NLT 042245Z.	CRITICAL for assessing MDCOA vulnerability.
P1 (CRITICAL - FIRES)	Confirmation of kinetic damage and attribution of the Temryuk Seaport strike. Assess operational impact on RF logistics supporting the MLD.	IMINT/HUMINT/OSINT Tasking: Prioritize collection over Krasnodar Krai to confirm strike method and material damage.	HIGH, informs future deep strike prioritization.
P2 (TECH/EW)	Precise target set for new Western UAV Vector (Mykolaiv/Kirovohrad/Vinnytsia). Confirm if new groups are solely reconnaissance or equipped with kinetic payload.	SIGINT/ELINT Tasking: Focus intercept assets on the Mykolaiv/Kirovohrad border corridor to identify specific drone C2 links and mission profiles.	CRITICAL for efficient AD asset engagement doctrine.

7. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS

7.1. Operational Maneuver and Force Protection (J3 / J7)

ACTION: DYNAMIC AD RE-TASKING AND MAXIMIZED FORCE PROTECTION.

Reserve Protection (BRAVO-BLOCK): REITERATE ORDER FOR IMMEDIATE MOVEMENT AND CONFIRM EMCON PROTOCOL 1-A. The most dangerous period is the next 60 minutes. Commanders must utilize all available terrain masking and prioritize off-road transit where feasible to avoid predictable routes confirmed by RF surveillance.
Air Defense Re-tasking (Immediate): PRIORITY SHIFT. Re-task mobile AD assets (e.g., Gepard, Avenger, SHORAD) currently deployed to Vinnytsia to intercept the new Northwest-bound UAV groups tracked along the Mykolaiv/Kirovohrad border (042232Z). The threat is moving; the defense must move faster.
Kyiv AD: Maintain only essential AD coverage over Kyiv/Brovary (static SAMs). Accept higher risk in the capital region if necessary to protect the primary operational objective: the survivability of the BRAVO-BLOCK reserve.

7.2. Fires and Targeting (J2 / J3)

ACTION: CONFIRM AND EXPLOIT TEMRYUK LOGISTICS DISRUPTION.

Temryuk Strike Follow-up: Assign urgent ISR assets to confirm the impact of the Temryuk port attack (P1 Gap). If maritime logistics are damaged, immediately shift targeting priority to RF replacement naval/rail assets.
E-WAR Priority: Maintain continuous deep Electronic Warfare (EW) jamming against all UAV C2/GPS links in the Mykolaiv/Kirovohrad/Vinnytsia corridor to deny terminal guidance capability for any potential kinetic follow-on strike (MDCOA mitigation).

7.3. Strategic Communications (STRATCOM / J7)

ACTION: NEUTRALIZE RF MORALE OPERATIONS.

Internal Narrative: Focus messaging on UAF kinetic successes (AD intercepts in Vinnytsia, the Temryuk strike, and the holding of Dobropillya). Counter the RF projected "collapse" narrative by emphasizing proactive defense and the successful denial of operational objectives in the deep rear.

Situation Report