Situation Report

MILITARY INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (MISREP) 25-12-04/019

TIME: 042200Z DEC 2025 SUBJECT: CONFIRMED KINETIC THREAT EXPANSION: RF UAVS SATURATE DEEP WESTERN AND CENTRAL AXES. DOBROPILLYIA HOLDS. PRIORITY: IMMEDIATE AD RELOCATION AND ACCELERATED DEPLOYMENT OF BRAVO-BLOCK RESERVE.

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1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (Current Operational Picture)

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

The enemy's kinetic preparation phase is achieving high geographical saturation, focusing on interdicting strategic depth assets concurrent with the imminent Main Effort Land Drive (MLD) at Stepnohorsk.

• Western Logistics Corridor (CRITICAL THREAT CONFIRMED): Multiple confirmed UAV groups are tracking southwest through Vinnytsia Oblast (042119Z, 042142Z) towards key logistics nodes near Turbov and Vinnytsia City. This validates the RF operational intent to paralyze NATO supply arteries and UAF strategic reserve transit.
• Central AD/C2 Vulnerability: New UAV ingress vectors confirmed targeting Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Synelnykove, 042145Z) and Kirovohrad Oblast (042147Z), suggesting RF intent to fix C2 nodes and draw AD away from the Western corridor.
• Tactical Defensive Success: Confirmed visual evidence (042123Z) verifies the presence of Ukrainian flags in Dobropillya, indicating UAF forces have successfully contained the 38th GMRB flanking effort, at least temporarily.
• Deep North-East Threat: UAV activity confirmed in the Kyiv region (Brovary district, 042155Z). This expands the deep threat to include the capital's eastern approaches, maximizing strain on AD resources.

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

Conditions remain suitable for continued RF offensive synchronization, particularly high-volume, low-level drone reconnaissance and attack missions.

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

The BRAVO-BLOCK reserve remains critically exposed. The necessity of its immediate movement is amplified by the persistent, verified UAV reconnaissance along its presumed transit route (Vinnytsia). The holding of Dobropillya provides a slight, exploitable relief of fixation pressure on the eastern flank, allowing UAF commanders higher confidence in committing the reserve directly toward the Stepnohorsk axis, provided transit survivability is ensured.

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2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

Intention: RF goal is kinetic overmatch and paralysis.

1. Paralysis of Depth: Leverage simultaneous, multi-directional UAV ingress across five major oblasts (Vinnytsia, Dnipropetrovsk, Kirovohrad, Mykolaiv, Kyiv) to confuse and saturate UAF mobile AD systems. The primary targeting goal remains the Vinnytsia logistics hubs and the BRAVO-BLOCK reserve.
2. Fixation: Maintain kinetic preparation (KAB strikes, UGV staging) until NLT 050000Z for the MLD initiation at Stepnohorsk.

Capabilities: RF demonstrates high capacity for multi-domain synchronization and persistent, geographically diverse deep reconnaissance necessary to guide follow-on precision strikes (e.g., Kalibr/Iskander).

2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)

The RF has confirmed the expanded target geography to include the Kyiv oblast/Brovary region. This is likely an intentional AD drain operation, forcing the commitment of valuable AD assets (e.g., NASAMS, Patriot) far from the critical Stepnohorsk axis or the Western LOCs.

2.3. Logistics and Sustainment Status (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)

RF continues to rely heavily on loitering munitions and reconnaissance UAVs for deep strikes, confirming sustainment capacity for this specific type of high-volume kinetic operation.

2.4. Command and Control Effectiveness (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

RF C2 remains highly effective, coordinating simultaneous kinetic attacks with immediate Information Operations (IO) designed to maximize psychological impact (e.g., demographic collapse narratives).

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3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking)

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)

UAF posture is defensively challenged by the requirement to defend against simultaneous deep threats across the country while managing the Stepnohorsk MLD preparation. The confirmation that Dobropillya holds is a critical tactical success, validating UAF defensive cohesion on the flank and freeing up operational planning focus.

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

TACTICAL SUCCESSES:

1. Confirmed holding of Dobropillya against 38th GMRB flanking efforts.
2. Continued successful tactical use of FPV/optical drones by forward units (36th Marines, SBS) demonstrated in combat footage (042147Z).

CRITICAL OPERATIONAL SETBACK:

1. RF reconnaissance (UAVs) successfully achieving saturation over all strategic depth corridors, particularly Vinnytsia and now extending to Kyiv/Brovary.

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

1. Mobile AD Assets: Requirement remains extreme. Re-tasking must now prioritize protection of Vinnytsia LOCs and the immediate C2/Logistics area of Dnipropetrovsk (Synelnykove), potentially accepting higher risk in the Kyiv/Brovary corridor for tactical gain elsewhere.
2. C3/EMCON: Absolute enforcement of maximum EMCON protocol for the BRAVO-BLOCK reserve during transit.

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4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain)

RF IO is reinforcing the 'despair' and 'collapse' narratives, attempting to undermine faith in Western aid and internal cohesion right before the MLD launch.

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5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future Operations)

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA) (Confidence: HIGH)

RF initiates the MLD at Stepnohorsk NLT 050000Z, led by UGV breaching elements. Concurrent UAV saturation will peak at NLT 050100Z, with the primary kinetic strike targeting a logistics node in the Vinnytsia corridor to interdict the BRAVO-BLOCK reserve's final approach. Secondary deep strikes will target C2/AD sites near Synelnykove (Dnipropetrovsk) and Chuhuiv (Kharkiv).

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA) (Confidence: HIGH)

RF utilizes the confirmed, persistent UAV reconnaissance over the Vinnytsia corridor to successfully guide a tactical strike (Iskander or similar) against the main body of the BRAVO-BLOCK reserve before it reaches the operational area. The mission kill of the reserve allows the 37th GMRB to achieve a strategic penetration at Stepnohorsk NLT 051200Z, threatening the integrity of the Zaporizhzhia defense line.

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points

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6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS AND COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS

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7. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS

7.1. Operational Maneuver and Force Protection (J3 / J7)

ACTION: MAXIMIZE SURVIVABILITY OF STRATEGIC RESERVE AND PROTECT C2 NODES.

1. Reserve Commitment (BRAVO-BLOCK): ORDER IMMEDIATE MOVEMENT AND CONFIRM EMCON PROTOCOL 1-A. The movement is now highly kinetic and susceptible to detection. Priority must be survivability; movement speed must be balanced against EMCON discipline.
2. Air Defense Re-tasking (Multi-Corridor): IMMEDIATE DEPLOYMENT.
   • PRIMARY: Reinforce mobile AD coverage for the Vinnytsia logistics corridor.
   • SECONDARY: Immediately deploy SHORAD/Mobile SAM assets to cover the Synelnykove/Dnipropetrovsk C2 cluster against the newly confirmed drone vector. Accept higher risk on peripheral deep threats (Kyiv/Brovary) if resources are insufficient to cover the primary and secondary priority areas.
3. Maneuver Flexibility: Leverage the successful holding of Dobropillya. UAF command should solidify the defensive line there and focus all uncommitted assets on the Stepnohorsk axis reinforcement, using the holding action as operational momentum.

7.2. Fires and Targeting (J2 / J3)

ACTION: MAINTAIN PRESSURE ON RF LOGISTICS AND EXPLOIT CRIMEAN AIR DEFENSE GAP.

1. Exploitation of Kacha/Sevastopol Gap: Maintain aggressive deep strike tempo against RF targets in Crimea until the air defense gap is closed. Prioritize targets that support the MLD (fuel dumps, supply ships/dockyards).
2. E-WAR Priority: Shift priority of deep Electronic Warfare (EW) assets to jam UAV C2 links in the Vinnytsia corridor (P1 Gap) to disrupt terminal guidance of potential kinetic strikes on the BRAVO-BLOCK reserve.

7.3. Strategic Communications (STRATCOM / J7)

ACTION: COUNTER DEMOGRAPHIC COLLAPSE NARRATIVE.

1. Internal Narrative: Counter the RF demographic collapse/despair narrative (042136Z) by emphasizing the successful containment of the 38th GMRB at Dobropillya and the continued securing of critical international aid ($500M Patriot). Frame the RF narratives as desperate attempts to demoralize defenders moments before their major offensive push.