Situation Report

MILITARY INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (MISREP) 25-12-04/016

TIME: 042045Z DEC 2025

SUBJECT: OPERATIONAL SYNCHRONIZATION ACHIEVED. DEEP UAV CAMPAIGN EXPANDS. MYRNOHRAD FLANK CRITICAL.

PRIORITY: IMMEDIATE EXECUTION OF RESERVE PROTOCOL AND CENTRAL AD RE-TASKING.

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1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (Current Operational Picture)

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

RF forces have achieved tactical synchronization across three major axes: the Main Effort Land Drive (MLD) at Stepnohorsk (Zaporizhzhia), the flanking fixation at Myrnohrad/Pokrovsk (Donetsk), and the deep UAV penetration targeting Central/Northern logistics.

• Zaporizhzhia (MLD): Pre-assault kinetic preparation is complete (KAB barrages). The 37th GMRB is postured for breach. The operational success hinges on the timing and placement of the UAF reserve.
• Donetsk Axis (Myrnohrad/Pokrovsk): Remains the primary vulnerability. Heavy KAB strikes are now confirmed on Sloviansk and Kramatorsk (042016Z, 042032Z). This fire support is assessed as a fixing maneuver to prevent UAF reserves from moving south to support the Myrnohrad defenders, facilitating an anticipated 38th GMRB breakout.
• Deep Air Domain: The UAV threat has expanded beyond Poltava/Cherkasy and is now actively reported across three distinct vectors:
  1. Kyiv Axis: Moving towards Rzhyshchiv/Kaharlyk (042011Z), targeting Dnipro River crossings and key infrastructure South of Kyiv.
  2. Chernihiv Axis: UAV activity confirmed over the city (042027Z).
  3. Kharkiv Axis: UAVs moving towards Chuhuiv (042004Z), sustaining pressure on logistics feeding the Eastern front.

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

No change. Weather conditions continue to favor low-level UAV flights and sustained mechanized movement. The geomagnetic storm window appears to have passed without major impact, but the enemy still attempted decapitation strikes (MDCOA in previous reports).

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)

UAF Air Defense is critically saturated, forced to choose between defending high-value strategic C2 nodes (Kyiv area), logistics centers (Cherkasy/Poltava), and forward deployed forces (MLD rear support). The BRAVO-BLOCK reserve commitment remains the single most critical decision point.

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2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

Intention: RF intends to use highly synchronized, multi-domain pressure to force UAF operational commanders into suboptimal defensive prioritization decisions. The goal is to collapse a flanking position (Myrnohrad) while breaching the main line (Stepnohorsk) and simultaneously paralyzing UAF ability to maneuver reserves via deep strikes.

Capabilities:

• Wider UGV Application: Confirmed Russian media promotion and deployment reports (Colonelcassad, 042031Z) of NRTC/Kuryer Unmanned Ground Vehicles (UGVs) by the 7th Regiment of Unmanned Systems in the Donetsk region.
  • Analytical Judgment: This indicates the UGV breaching capability is not limited to the 37th GMRB at Stepnohorsk but is being generalized across the front, increasing the offensive lethality of the 38th GMRB toward Pokrovsk/Myrnohrad.
• Sustained Deep Strike (UAV/Missile): Demonstrated capability to simultaneously launch high-volume UAV attacks across four deep sectors (Kyiv, Chernihiv, Kharkiv, Cherkasy) while maintaining KAB saturation on Eastern front cities (Sloviansk/Kramatorsk).

2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

The most significant adaptation is the spatial and temporal synchronization of the KAB fixing fires (Sloviansk/Kramatorsk) with the imminent MLD launch and the widespread deep UAV campaign. This suggests effective coordination at the RF Operational Command level (OG South/OG East).

2.3. Logistics and Sustainment Status (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)

UAF forces confirmed successful kinetic strikes on the RF rear:

1. Strike on a Chemical Plant in Stavropol Krai (ASTRA, 042011Z), confirmed by UAF General Staff. (Targeting Judgment: Likely industrial base or logistical node feeding the Southern Military District.)
2. Strike on Millerovo Airfield during UAV launches (Tsaplienko, 042012Z). (Targeting Judgment: Direct degradation of deep-strike launch platforms.) Despite these UAF successes, the massive KAB usage indicates sufficient immediate ammunition sustainment for the initial 24-48 hours of the MLD.

2.4. Command and Control Effectiveness (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

RF C2 remains highly effective in achieving operational synchronization across kinetic and informational domains (Putin's Telegram directive, synchronized military operations, immediate counter-IO regarding UAF deep strikes). Russian military bloggers are promoting the new UGV technology, indicating C2 is integrating technical innovation with immediate propaganda efforts.

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3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking)

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)

UAF forces are successfully executing deep interdiction strikes, demonstrating initiative and reach (Stavropol, Millerovo). However, the delay in deploying the BRAVO-BLOCK reserve coupled with the escalating complexity of the deep UAV threat forces severe operational risk prioritization. The Myrnohrad defenders remain functionally isolated and critically low on medical/logistics.

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

TACTICAL/STRATEGIC SUCCESSES: Confirmed deep strikes on Stavropol Chemical Plant and Millerovo Airfield. Ongoing development of a radar-integrated net-gun C-UAS system (042026Z), demonstrating technical adaptation to the drone environment. CRITICAL OPERATIONAL SETBACK: The defense of the Pokrovsk line is threatened by the prolonged Myrnohrad crisis and the now confirmed use of robotic breaching systems (UGVs) on the Eastern flank.

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

The priority resource constraint has shifted slightly:

1. AD Assets: The immediate requirement is to cover the Kyiv/Dnieper River crossings and the high-value logistics nodes in Cherkasy, as these deep strikes are now confirmed to be active and multi-directional.
2. Logistics/Medical: Immediate resources to open a medical/supply corridor for Myrnohrad are paramount to preventing the collapse of the defense there due to non-combat factors (casualties, morale).

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4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain)

The RF IO campaign is focused on generating panic and confirming narratives of UAF operational failure, while simultaneously promoting RF technological superiority.

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5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future Operations)

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA) (Confidence: HIGH)

RF will execute its fully synchronized plan:

1. MLD Breach (Stepnohorsk): RF initiates the primary ground assault NLT 050000Z, utilizing UGVs to breach minefields rapidly.
2. Flank Collapse (Myrnohrad): RF increases kinetic pressure using motorized rifle elements and potentially the new UGV tech to force the collapse of the semi-encircled forces NLT 050600Z, aiming to open the route to Pokrovsk.
3. C2 Paralysis (Deep Strikes): UAV activity will focus on rail/logistics nodes near the Kaniv Reservoir/Rzhyshchiv area NLT 050300Z, attempting to disrupt the movement of the overdue BRAVO-BLOCK reserve or paralyze central C2 infrastructure.

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA) (Confidence: MEDIUM)

RF achieves a simultaneous operational breakthrough at Stepnohorsk and a kinetic collapse at Myrnohrad. The UAF reserve (BRAVO-BLOCK), delayed and exposed, is effectively targeted by pre-positioned RF reconnaissance/artillery assets during its final movement toward Dobropillya. This creates an immediate and irreversible gap, allowing RF forces to exploit toward Dnipro city from the south and northeast, severing the Eastern Group of Forces.

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points

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6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS AND COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS

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7. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS

7.1. Operational Maneuver and Force Protection (J3 / J7)

ACTION: IMMEDIATE RESERVE DEPLOYMENT AND DEEP AD DEFENSE SHIFT.

1. Reserve Commitment: EXECUTE PROTOCOL "BRAVO-BLOCK" NLT 042100Z. The risk of RF breakthrough on either main axis (Stepnohorsk or Myrnohrad flank) now justifies accepting the risk of detection during movement.
2. Air Defense Re-tasking: Immediately move high-mobility AD assets to defend identified high-risk logistics targets and river crossings in the Kyiv/Cherkasy corridor (e.g., Rzhyshchiv, Kaharlyk). Use the new reports (042011Z, 042016Z) to adjust trajectory predictions.
3. Myrnohrad Emergency Corridor: Authorize high-risk, low-altitude, night-flying logistics missions (UAV/Helicopter) to deliver critical medical supplies and evacuate priority casualties from Myrnohrad NLT 042200Z. Failure to do so will lead to localized collapse due to morale and non-combat losses.

7.2. Fires and Targeting (J2 / J3)

ACTION: MAXIMIZE DEEP INTERDICTION AND COUNTER-UGV DOCTRINE.

1. Deep Strike Follow-Up: Utilize the temporary Kacha AD gap to launch follow-on precision strikes against newly identified RF logistics nodes feeding the Southern operational area, leveraging the degradation achieved at Millerovo Airfield.
2. Counter-UGV Fires: Reissue the directive (J7 dissemination priority: CRITICAL) to all forces in contact (Stepnohorsk and Myrnohrad sectors): Prioritize high-volume suppressive fire (HMG, AGL) against UGVs. Confirm that commanders understand the deployment of UGVs is now a generalized threat across the Eastern front.

7.3. Strategic Communications (STRATCOM / J7)

ACTION: COUNTER-NARRATIVE OF WEAKNESS.

1. Pessimism Denial: Immediately launch a public/military communications campaign focused on quantifiable successes (Patriot deal, Stavropol BDA, Millerovo strike, new C-UAS tech) to counter the RF narrative derived from the RADA quote and the overall high-pressure environment. Frame the current operational tempo as a desperate, final RF attempt.
2. Digital Adaptation: Utilize Telegram/Social Media channels aggressively, following the RF C2 paradigm shift, to ensure high-speed, accurate tactical warnings (UAV trajectory updates) and high-morale messaging reaches forward deployed units and the critical civilian populace near target zones.