Situation Report

MILITARY INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (MISREP) 25-12-04/015

TIME: 042030Z DEC 2025 SUBJECT: OPERATIONAL WINDOW CLOSING: BRAVO-BLOCK CRITICALLY OVERDUE. UAV THREAT EXTENDS TO CHERKASY. MYRNOHRAD FLANK DETERIORATES. PRIORITY: IMMEDIATE EXECUTION OF RESERVE PROTOCOL AND IMMEDIATE OPERATIONAL RECONNAISSANCE OF MYRNOHRAD AXIS.

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1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (Current Operational Picture)

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain

The operational tempo is increasing in depth and across multiple domains. RF maintains the Main Effort Land Drive (MLD) at Stepnohorsk (Zaporizhzhia) while expanding its Northern fixation strategy deep into Central Ukraine.

• Zaporizhzhia (Stepnohorsk MLD): No major confirmed changes since 041940Z. The 37th GMRB is poised for breakthrough, leveraging "Kuryer" UGVs. The UAF reserve commitment remains the primary operational variable.
• Donetsk Axis (Myrnohrad/Pokrovsk): CRITICAL DETERIORATION. Reports indicate Myrnohrad is facing "semi-encirclement," and prolonged casualties (100+ days without evacuation) are straining defenses. This area (previously the 38th GMRB fixation flank) is now a high-risk sector threatening the stability of the entire Pokrovsk defensive line.
• Northern/Central Ukraine (UAV Domain): CRITICAL FACT: UAV deep penetration has expanded significantly. UAF Air Force confirms UAVs moving SW from Pyriatyn/Hrebinka (Poltava Oblast) toward Cherkasy Oblast (041953Z). This represents the deepest confirmed RF penetration on this vector, aiming to bypass primary AD defenses closer to Kyiv/Dnipro and target high-value logistics/C2 nodes along the Dnieper River axis.

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations

The previously reported conditions favoring UAV/mechanized operations persist. The confirmed RF strike on the Kherson medical facility (Perinatal Center, 041933Z) elevates the humanitarian crisis and requires immediate coordination with J7 for IO exploitation.

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

The UAF reserve commitment (BRAVO-BLOCK) is at maximum risk due to the overdue deployment status. AD resources are now critically stretched across three major axes (MLD support, Kharkiv/Sumy, and the new Poltava/Cherkasy deep strike vector). UAF forces in Myrnohrad require immediate medical logistics support and enhanced ISR/SOF support to clarify the encirclement status.

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2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action

Intention: RF intends to use the Stepnohorsk MLD as the primary kinetic axis while exploiting the Myrnohrad flank and paralyzing UAF deep logistics via the Cherkasy UAV penetration. Capabilities:

• Deep Kinetic Reach: Confirmed capability to sustain UAV operations across 300+ km behind the front line (Poltava/Cherkasy vector). CONFIDENCE: HIGH
• IO Adaptability: RF authorities, following Putin's directive, are integrating platforms like Telegram into state operations (041936Z), signaling a deliberate effort to manage influence, messaging, and hybrid warfare tactics through decentralized social media platforms.
• Sustained Pressure: RF continues to employ synchronized informational, kinetic (MLD, UAVs), and positional (Myrnohrad) pressure points simultaneously.

2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations

The extension of the UAV vector into Cherkasy Oblast is a significant adaptation. RF is testing UAF contingency planning for the Central Military District and appears to be aiming for targets that, if hit, would disrupt troop movement and logistics for both the MLD reserve commitment and the Donetsk axis.

2.3. Logistics and Sustainment Status

The strategic impact of the Nevinnomyssk Azot strike remains significant. However, the report of the US suspending some sanctions on Lukoil (041944Z) provides an immediate information opportunity for RF to counter the narrative of strategic economic isolation, even if the practical operational impact is long-term. RF forces continue to fundraise for tactical needs (Dva Mayora, Kherson direction, 041949Z), indicating a reliance on decentralized supply chains.

2.4. Command and Control Effectiveness

RF C2 is demonstrating high synchronization across all kinetic fronts and is now demonstrating high-level strategic alignment on C2 and IO domain management (Putin's Telegram directive, synchronized diplomatic messaging).

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3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking)

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness

UAF forces are under maximum strain but are exhibiting tactical resilience (SSO success in Yarova, 042000Z). The Myrnohrad/Pokrovsk defenses are critically stressed, potentially creating a secondary breakthrough vulnerability that rivals Stepnohorsk.

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks

TACTICAL SUCCESS: SSO 8th Regiment successfully cleared an enemy group in Yarova, Donetsk region, demonstrating localized superiority (042000Z). LOGISTICAL SUCCESS (Civilian Domain): Continued, highly active, and effective civilian fundraising for specialized drone units (DeepState, Sternenko) demonstrates high domestic morale and immediate resource allocation capability, partially offsetting government procurement delays. CRITICAL SETBACK: Severe operational and humanitarian conditions at Myrnohrad (semi-encirclement, prolonged casualty evacuation issues) require immediate operational attention to prevent localized collapse and subsequent RF exploitation toward Pokrovsk.

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints

AD ASSETS: Urgent need for AD assets (Shikla, Gepard, MANPADS) specifically tasked to cover high-value rail/logistics nodes in Poltava and Cherkasy Oblasts to mitigate the new deep strike vector. MEDICAL/LOGISTICS: Immediate air/ground evacuation resources and medical resupply for Myrnohrad defenders are critical to maintaining combat effectiveness and morale.

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4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain)

The Information Environment is shifting focus from RF tactical claims to institutional governance and undermining Western solidarity.

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5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future Operations)

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA)

COA: Deep Strike and Flanking Collapse Acceleration. (Confidence: HIGH) The RF will initiate the full MLD at Stepnohorsk NLT 050300Z, led by "Kuryer" UGVs. Concurrently, the UAV saturation will target a high-value logistics or C2 hub in Cherkasy Oblast NLT 050600Z, forcing UAF attention away from the MLD reserve deployment. RF forces will exploit the strained UAF position at Myrnohrad, increasing kinetic pressure to force a localized collapse and achieve a breakout toward Pokrovsk NLT 051200Z.

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA)

COA: Dual Operational Breakthrough. (Confidence: MEDIUM) The delayed UAF reserve (BRAVO-BLOCK) is detected and effectively targeted during movement (P1 Gap). This targeting coincides with the RF achieving a full operational breakthrough at Stepnohorsk and the successful kinetic collapse of the Myrnohrad flank. The convergence of these two events achieves the strategic objective of isolating the OG Dnipro/OG East forces, opening the door for a rapid RF exploitation toward Dnipro city from both the South and the Northeast, paralyzing UAF ability to reconstitute a contiguous front.

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points

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6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS AND COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS

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7. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS

7.1. Operational Maneuver (J3)

ACTION: DEPLOY RESERVES AND STABILIZE EASTERN FLANK.

1. Reserve Commitment: EXECUTE PROTOCOL "BRAVO-BLOCK" NLT 042200Z. The risk of delay now far outweighs the risk of detection. Command must accept calculated losses during movement to prevent operational defeat.
2. Myrnohrad Stabilization: Deploy SOF (e.g., 8th Regiment assets) and dedicated long-range reconnaissance to Myrnohrad to gain immediate clarity on the encirclement status (P1). Simultaneously, organize an immediate logistical corridor attempt for medical evacuation and resupply (priority: 100+ day casualties).
3. AD Deployment (Central): Re-task 10% of high-mobility AD assets from lower-threat static positions (e.g., secondary bridges) to high-value rail marshaling yards and critical energy infrastructure in Cherkasy Oblast NLT 042330Z.

7.2. Fires and Targeting (J2/J3)

ACTION: MAXIMIZE STRATEGIC INTERDICTION.

1. P0 Targeting Focus: Elevate confirmed Rail-Tanker Staging (P0) to the absolute highest priority. Utilize the Kacha AD gap to launch follow-on strikes focused on interdicting the flow of fuel and materiel required for the MLD and Eastern fixation.

2. C-UGV Fires Doctrine: Reiterate the tactical guidance: Do not use expensive ATGM assets on "Kuryer" UGVs. Prioritize high-volume, suppressive fires from HMGs and 40mm AGLs against these robotic breaching platforms.

7.3. Strategic Communications (STRATCOM / J7)

ACTION: COUNTER RF IO AND LEVERAGE ATROCITIES.

1. LUKOIL Counter-Narrative: Immediately frame the US sanctions suspension (LUKOIL) as an administrative necessity for global stability, not a reversal of policy. Counter preemptively by highlighting the confirmed, sustained commitment of the $500M Patriot package and the success of the Nevinnomyssk strike.
2. Humanitarian Crisis Campaign: Launch an international media campaign leveraging the Kherson Perinatal Center strike and the Myrnohrad prolonged casualty crisis. Frame RF targeting of vulnerable infrastructure/personnel as proof of tactical desperation preceding a major military push.
3. Digital C2 Adaptation: UAF STRATCOM must immediately adapt messaging to the Telegram/social media dominance noted in the RF analysis, ensuring key operational warnings and morale messaging reach Ukrainian forces and civilian populace effectively via these channels.