Sitrep 2025-12-04 17:34:33

MILITARY INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (MISREP) 25-12-04/010

TIME: 041745Z DEC 2025 SUBJECT: CONFIRMED STEPNOHORSK MLD INITIATION. RF CLAIMS OF PARTIAL OCCUPATION. RESERVE DEPLOYMENT CRITICAL. PRIORITY: CRITICAL - IMMEDIATE ACTION REQUIRED

1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (Current Operational Picture)

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain

The operational situation has transitioned from Active Kinetic Preparation to Active Penetration Attempt in the Zaporizhzhia axis.

Stepnohorsk Sector (Zaporizhzhia Axis): RF sources (17:25Z) claim VDV elements have occupied the "greater part of Stepnohorsk" and are engaging UAF forces in Prymorske. This claim, though likely exaggerated (FACT: Propaganda Synchronization), indicates that the Stepnohorsk Main Land Drive (MLD) H-Hour has commenced and kinetic fighting for the settlement is now underway.
Northern Shaping Operations: Confirmed UAF Air Force reports indicate persistent enemy UAV (BPLA) activity targeting Chernihiv (17:28Z) and the Kharkiv/Stary Saltiv axis (17:31Z). This suggests persistent long-range reconnaissance and deep strike targeting outside the main axis, likely designed to fix UAF air defense assets.

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations

Current operations are occurring during twilight and transition into night (Post-17:00Z), providing optimal cover for low-signature, mechanized assault elements (UGVs) and infantry infiltration. The geomagnetic storm is ongoing, potentially degrading GPS accuracy and certain SATCOM links.

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

UAF forces are confirmed engaged in heavy combat at Stepnohorsk. The previous critical decision window for the "BRAVO-BLOCK" operational reserve deployment (NLT 041800Z) is now closing rapidly due to confirmed enemy contact. The nature of the reserve commitment must shift from preemptive blocking to immediate counter-penetration if RF claims of partial occupation are verified.

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action

Intention: RF Intention remains operational penetration and exploitation toward the Huliaipole salient. The immediate synchronization of kinetic action with aggressive propaganda confirms a high-tempo, multi-domain attack profile. Confirmed Kinetic Action: The 37th GMRB/VDV MLD is now executing Phase 1 (Penetration). The reported heavy use of UGVs (Kuryer) is anticipated to rapidly clear minefields, facilitating the VDV spearhead's advance into the settlement (Judgment: HIGH CONFIDENCE). Logistics Adaptation Counter-Effort: OSINT imagery confirms significant damage at the Afipsky Oil Refinery (Krasnodar Krai) resulting from a prior UAF deep strike (17:05Z). This confirms sustained UAF pressure on RF petroleum, oil, and lubricants (POL) supply lines, placing increased pressure on P3 rail-logistics.

2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations

RF Counter-UAS Capability: The Vostok Grouping (near Kupyansk) claimed successful interception and destruction of a "Baba Yaga" heavy UAF bomber drone (17:22Z). This confirms RF continues to develop sophisticated counter-UAS measures, particularly against high-value night-attack platforms.
Mercenary Deployment: UAF SSO report (17:33Z) confirms the presence and destruction of foreign fighters (African national) near Yarova, suggesting the continued utilization of irregular or contracted personnel to reinforce conventional units on secondary axes.

2.3. Command and Control Effectiveness

RF C2 is demonstrating exceptional responsiveness, launching aggressive IO narratives (Stepnohorsk occupation claims) within minutes of the likely kinetic launch (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Putin’s concurrent media appearances (India, 17:31Z) sustain the strategic distraction element of the campaign, mitigating potential international diplomatic pressure during the operational escalation.

3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking)

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness

Forces in the Stepnohorsk sector are actively engaged in close combat. Readiness levels must be maintained despite cognitive stress resulting from synchronized kinetic and IO campaigns (Kherson TPP, Dublin incident).

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks

Tactical Successes:
- Effective SSO operation near Yarova (17:33Z).
- Successful follow-up confirmation of deep strike damage (Afipsky Refinery).
- Capture of RF prisoners near Kupyansk (17:17Z), providing potential immediate tactical intelligence.
Strategic Successes: UK imposition of sanctions on 11 GRU officers (17:19Z) and German deployment of Eurofighter jets to Poland (17:14Z) reinforces NATO's commitment, providing strong diplomatic cover during the MLD.

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints

The most critical constraint remains the persistent P1 Intelligence Gap regarding the 38th GMRB vector. This gap, combined with the Stepnohorsk penetration attempt, necessitates an immediate, high-risk decision on the reserve.

4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain)

The IE is focused on immediate kinetic claims and reinforcing strategic stability narratives.

Domain	Finding (FACT/Observation/Judgment)	Confidence	Impact on Operations
KINETIC IO/Stepnohorsk	RF military correspondents claim occupation of "greater part of Stepnohorsk" (17:25Z). (OBSERVATION/PROPAGANDA)	HIGH	Attempts to panic UAF frontline defenders, inflate VDV morale, and preemptively claim victory before UAF counter-penetration is executed. Requires immediate UAF verification/counter-narrative.
Strategic Normalization	Putin conducting high-profile, live interviews with Indian media (17:31Z) and Russia promoting a monument to DPRK/RF military brotherhood (17:10Z). (OBSERVATION)	HIGH	Normalizes the conflict and projects an image of stable, globally engaged leadership, minimizing the perception of operational desperation at Stepnohorsk.
Morale/Prisoner Exchange	UAF videos confirm captured RF personnel near Kupyansk (17:17Z). (FACT)	HIGH	Provides crucial domestic and frontline morale lift by demonstrating successful capture/interdiction during heavy fighting.
Historical Justification	RF channels promote the 1864 Battle of Ikan (17:31Z), a historical example of a small Russian force fighting a larger enemy in colonial expansion. (OBSERVATION)	HIGH	Frames the current MLD as a heroic, historically inevitable struggle for territorial control.

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future Operations)

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA)

COA: MLD Penetration and Fixation. (Confidence: HIGH) The MLD is confirmed underway. VDV forces will leverage UGV-cleared routes and the cover of night to maximize penetration depth at Stepnohorsk. The 38th GMRB will maintain high-intensity fixation operations near Dobropillya, preventing UAF forces from rapidly disengaging or diverting the uncommitted reserve. RF will transition from KAB preparation to heavy artillery and thermobaric use to consolidate gains within the settlement.

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA)

COA: Operational Gap Exploitation and Encirclement. (Confidence: HIGH) RF leverages the potential for C2 friction caused by the Stepnohorsk engagement and the prior strategic intimidation (Dublin/Kherson TPP). The 38th GMRB, exploiting the unaddressed P1 Intelligence Gap, executes a rapid NW bypass of Dobropillya, aiming for the rear of the committed "BRAVO-BLOCK" reserve forces as they engage the VDV penetration in the Huliaipole area. This link-up results in the operational encirclement of the Zaporizhzhia OG before 050600Z.

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points

Event	Estimated Time Frame	Decision Point	Status Change (Since 1700Z)
Stepnohorsk MLD Status Confirmation	NLT 041815Z DEC	IMMEDIATE ISR TASKING. Confirm depth of penetration and RF force disposition within the settlement.	CRITICAL PRIORITY
Reserve Commitment (BRAVO-BLOCK)	EXECUTE NLT 041830Z DEC (Based on 1815Z ISR)	COMMIT. Decision shifts from 'if' to 'where' (Counter-penetration vs. Blocking).	URGENCY MAXIMIZED
Deep Strike Targeting Cycle	Next 6 hours (041800Z-05000Z)	Exploit Kacha AD gap to target logistics necessary for MLD sustainment.	MAINTAIN PRIORITY

6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS AND COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS

Priority	Gap Description	Required Action	Confidence Impact
P0 (NEW CRITICAL)	CONFIRMATION OF STEPNOHORSK PENETRATION DEPTH. Specific assessment of VDV presence in the settlement and identification of the most viable RF exploitation route.	IMMEDIATE BPLA/ISR Tasking (IR/EO/SAR) focused on Stepnohorsk/Prymorske and Phase Line BRAVO intersection points.	CRITICAL for accurate reserve deployment vector.
P1 (CRITICAL)	Current tactical vector of the 38th GMRB. (Consolidation or NW Bypass attempt).	Tasking HUMINT and dedicated counter-reconnaissance patrols NW of Dobropillya.	HIGH on mitigating MDCOA.
P2 (TECH/EW)	"Kuryer" UGV/ "Mangas" Hexacopter C2 Frequencies.	Maximize SIGINT/ELINT focus on 11th VDV/37th GMRB C2 nets to identify command protocols for robotic systems.	HIGH on UGV countermeasure effectiveness.

7. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS

7.1. Operational Maneuver (J3)

ACTION: IMMEDIATE RESERVE DEPLOYMENT AND COUNTER-PENETRATION PLANNING.

Reserve Commitment: EXECUTE PROTOCOL "BRAVO-BLOCK" NLT 041830Z DEC. The reserve must be deployed. The precise vector (A. Counter-attack/Cushioning Stepnohorsk, OR B. Blocking 38th GMRB bypass) must be confirmed by the P0 ISR results (NLT 1815Z). Prepare both contingency plans immediately.
C2 Hardening: Mandate immediate activation of secure contingency C2 nodes for all Operational Groups (OGs), particularly OG Dnipro, recognizing the MDCOA threat of strategic paralysis remains highly relevant.
Frontline Doctrine: Re-broadcast UGV counter-doctrine: prioritize HMG/AGL suppression fire on any low-profile movement. Preserve ATGM for heavy armor (T-90M/BMP-3) following the initial breach.

7.2. Fires and Targeting (J3/J2)

ACTION: INTERDICT MLD SUSTAINMENT.

Immediate Fire Missions: Utilize available long-range fire assets (HIMARS/Artillery) against confirmed/suspected RF staging areas immediately behind the Stepnohorsk line of departure (LOD) to disrupt follow-on forces and exploitation elements.
Deep Strike Re-prioritization: Utilize the Kacha AD gap window to prioritize strikes on RF rail-logistics choke points identified in the P3 Gap to capitalize on the confirmed POL fragility (Afipsky damage).

7.3. Information Operations and Strategic Communications (STRATCOM)

ACTION: COUNTER-NARRATIVE ON STEPNOHORSK.

Denial/Confirmation: Pending P0 ISR confirmation, STRATCOM must prepare two simultaneous messages: A) If claims are false: Immediately deny the occupation claim as desperate IO, emphasizing UAF resistance. B) If claims are verified (Partial): Acknowledge heavy fighting, emphasize UAF counter-attack efforts, and highlight the confirmed destruction of RF specialized assets (UGVs, foreign fighters). Do not allow RF propaganda to set the operational pace.
Alliance Strength: Immediately amplify the UK sanctions against GRU officers and the German/NATO reinforcement to counter the RF narrative of global normalization and project Western solidarity.

Situation Report