Sitrep 2025-12-04 17:04:32

MILITARY INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (MISREP) 25-12-04/009

TIME: 041715Z DEC 2025 SUBJECT: FINAL WARNING. STEPNOHORSK MLD H-HOUR IMMINENT. RESERVE DEPLOYMENT WINDOW CRITICAL. STRATEGIC INTIMIDATION CONFIRMED. PRIORITY: CRITICAL - IMMEDIATE ACTION REQUIRED

1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (Current Operational Picture)

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain

The operational picture confirms maximum RF escalation leading into the Stepnohorsk Main Land Drive (MLD).

Stepnohorsk Sector (Zaporizhzhia Axis): Preparation fires (KAB and Artillery) continue at maximum sustained rate, utilizing the cover of the ongoing geomagnetic storm. Confirmed reporting from VDV-affiliated channels (17:03Z) indicates readiness and presence in the broader Zaporizhzhia direction (vicinity of Prymorskoe), reinforcing the MLD focus.
Southern Shaping Operation: Confirmed successful RF deep strike on the Kherson Thermal Power Plant (TPP) (16:33Z), resulting in severe damage. This kinetic action directly reinforces the strategic shaping efforts designed to degrade Ukrainian morale and logistics resilience concurrent with the MLD launch.
Air Activity: Confirmed presence of UAF air assets (BPLA) moving South over Sumy/Poltava (16:49Z). This may be a response to deep strike threats or preparatory targeting for the Kacha AD gap exploitation.

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations

Geomagnetic activity remains HIGH. The time is now approaching twilight ("смеркалось," 16:58Z), providing optimal conditions for low-profile UGV infiltration and initial mechanized movement.

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

UAF forces remain postured for defense. The operational reserve ("BRAVO-BLOCK") remains uncommitted. The time window for optimal deployment is now critically condensed. Failure to commit the reserve NLT 041800Z DEC will grant RF the necessary freedom of maneuver to exploit any initial breach. (Confidence: HIGH)

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action

Intention: RF intends to achieve operational penetration at Stepnohorsk (Zaporizhzhia) through synchronized mechanized/UGV assault NLT 042000Z. New Tactical Adaptation (Technology): RF forces, specifically GrV "Vostok" (active on the adjacent Eastern Front), are deploying the "Mangas" heavy hexacopter drone (17:02Z).

Assessment: The Mangas platform suggests an increased emphasis on heavy payload drone delivery (resupply, heavy munitions drop) specifically for use by assault detachments (reported destined for shturmovyye podrazdeleniya), supplementing the breaching capabilities of the "Kuryer" UGV. This indicates RF expects heavy close-quarters combat during the breakthrough. (Confidence: MEDIUM) Strategic Alignment: Putin's interview statements (16:42Z, 16:47Z) are strategically timed to coincide with the MLD launch: boasting intelligence effectiveness while denying "USSR restoration" goals. This dual messaging attempts to project strength internally and mitigate international political backlash. (Confidence: HIGH)

2.2. Logistics and Sustainment Status

RF logistics remain capable of sustaining the MLD's initial push. The confirmed strike on Kherson TPP confirms that RF deep strike planning is currently focused on high-value civilian/infrastructure targets rather than purely military logistics, possibly assuming Ukraine cannot rapidly target the newly organized rail logistics (P3 Gap).

2.3. Command and Control Effectiveness

RF Command and Control (C2) demonstrates exceptional synchronization between kinetic operations (Stepnohorsk prep fires, Kherson TPP strike) and strategic influence operations (IW/Diplomatic messaging/Decapitation threat).

3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking)

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness

Readiness remains high, but forces are suffering cumulative cognitive stress due to deep strikes (Kherson TPP), fixation efforts (Donetsk), and the immediate kinetic threat at Stepnohorsk.

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks

Setback (Deep Strike): Destruction of Kherson TPP (16:33Z) is a significant local infrastructure loss, adding to the systemic energy constraints announced by Ukrenergo. (Confidence: HIGH)
Political/Economic Stability: UAF channels are reporting lowered national currency rates (16:41Z) and progress on critical IMF aid programs (16:50Z). This indicates institutional resilience despite the concurrent kinetic assault, providing a strong counter-narrative to RF psychological operations regarding Ukrainian collapse. (Confidence: HIGH)

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints

The P1 Intelligence Gap regarding the 38th GMRB vector remains unresolved and is now the most dangerous constraint, given the rapidly diminishing time before the MLD H-Hour. The commitment decision must be made regardless of the gap.

4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain)

The Information Environment (IE) is saturated with high-intensity, synchronized messaging designed to fracture UAF political and military resolve.

Domain	Finding (FACT/Observation/Judgment)	Confidence	Impact on Operations
Strategic Intimidation/Decapitation	Multiple sources confirm four military-type drones approached the landing zone of President Zelenskyy’s aircraft in Dublin (16:35Z, 16:48Z, 17:03Z). (FACT/DS Belief: 0.078328)	HIGH	CRITICAL: This confirms the strategic MDCOA is currently being executed via an intelligence/intimidation operation, aiming to stress the highest levels of Ukrainian C2 and international security confidence during the MLD launch window.
RF Internal Narrative	RF milbloggers (Vostok, Colonelcassad) are promoting the deployment of the "Mangas" heavy drone (17:02Z) and the appointment of SVO veterans to civil posts (16:42Z). (OBSERVATION)	HIGH	Reinforces the domestic narrative of technological superiority and internal political normalization/support for the conflict.
UAF Counter-Narrative	UAF channels immediately label Putin's denial of USSR restoration as baseless propaganda (17:01Z), indicating rapid, effective response to strategic messaging. (OBSERVATION)	HIGH	Mitigates the foreign policy effects of Putin's statement.

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future Operations)

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA)

COA: VDV Mechanized Breakthrough at Stepnohorsk Followed by Rapid Exploitation. (Confidence: HIGH) RF executes the MLD NLT 042000Z. The MLD will be preceded by the transition from KAB strikes to final, intensive preparation fires (1700Z-1945Z). The use of «Курьер» UGVs for breaching, potentially supported by "Mangas" heavy delivery drones, will enable the 11th VDV spearhead to penetrate Phase Line BRAVO. Exploitation will aim for the Huliaipole salient, relying on the 38th GMRB fixation near Dobropillya to prevent UAF reserve commitment.

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA)

COA: Strategic C2 Paralysis Coincident with Stepnohorsk/38th GMRB Link-up. (Confidence: HIGH) RF leverages the ongoing high-tempo strategic intimidation campaign (Dublin incident) and the sustained operational stress (Kherson TPP destruction) to achieve C2 paralysis across UAF operational leadership. This paralysis prevents the timely deployment of the "BRAVO-BLOCK" reserve. The 38th GMRB, utilizing the uncertainty generated by the P1 Intelligence Gap, executes a rapid bypass NW of Dobropillya, linking up with the VDV exploitation force and achieving the operational encirclement of UAF forces in the Zaporizhzhia sector before 050600Z.

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points

Event	Estimated Time Frame	Decision Point	Status Change (Since 1700Z)
Stepnohorsk MLD H-Hour	NLT 042000Z DEC	Final alert status for all units.	UNCHANGED (CONFIRMED)
Reserve Commitment (BRAVO-BLOCK)	IMMEDIATE CRITICAL ACTION (NLT 041800Z DEC)	EXECUTE Protocol "BRAVO-BLOCK." The political/IO environment confirms the MDCOA threat level warrants immediate action.	URGENCY MAXIMIZED
Kherson TPP Degradation	Immediate (Next 12 hours)	Activate priority backup power generation and C2 redundancy for Southern OGs.	NEW CONSTRAINT

6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS AND COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS

Priority	Gap Description	Required Action	Confidence Impact
P1 (CRITICAL)	Current tactical status and exploitation vector of the 38th GMRB near Chervone (Bypass or Consolidation?).	ACCEPT RISK, MOVE RESERVE. This gap cannot be resolved in time to inform the NLT 1800Z decision. Collection focus shifts to post-deployment confirmation of enemy vector.	HIGH on mitigating MDCOA.
P2 (TECH/EW)	Specific C2 frequency resilience and command structure of the VDV-operated UGV «Курьер» and "Mangas" hexacopter.	IMMEDIATE SIGINT/ELINT targeting of 11th VDV and Vostok C2 links. Focus on identifying new drone command structures.	HIGH on UGV countermeasure effectiveness.
P4 (TECH/IO)	Identification of Adversary state/actor responsible for the Dublin drone incident.	INTER-AGENCY COORDINATION (SBU/GUR/Foreign Partners) to confirm origin/control method of the drones.	HIGH on mitigating future strategic intimidation attempts.

7. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS

7.1. Operational Maneuver (J3)

ACTION: IMMEDIATE EXECUTION OF PROTOCOL "BRAVO-BLOCK" NLT 041800Z DEC.

Reserve Commitment: Deploy the operational reserve immediately to pre-designated blocking positions NW of Huliaipole. Base deployment on the MDCOA vector (preempting the 38th GMRB bypass) as the risk of inaction is now validated by synchronized strategic threats.
C2 Dispersal: Accelerate dispersion of all major Operational Group (OG) HQ elements, particularly Dnipro. Activate secure, hardened contingency C2 nodes immediately to mitigate the validated MDCOA threat of strategic paralysis.
UGV Counter-Defense: Reinforce the tactical doctrine for frontline Stepnohorsk units: Prioritize engagement of low-profile robotic systems («Курьер» and potentially «Mangas» landing/delivery zones) using HMG and AGL systems.

7.2. Fires and Targeting (J3/J2)

ACTION: MAXIMIZE INTERDICTION OPPORTUNITY (KACHA AD GAP).

Focus Shift: Shift immediate deep strike priority to P3 rail-logistics choke points to deny sustainment to the Stepnohorsk exploitation forces. Target rolling stock staging areas identified via IMINT.
Kherson TPP Response: Task J7/Engineer units to assess damage and establish emergency power generation for critical C2 and civic infrastructure in the Kherson Operational Zone (OZN).

7.3. Information Operations and Strategic Communications (STRATCOM)

ACTION: COUNTER-INTIMIDATION AND MORALE BOOST.

Decapitation Narrative Counter: Utilize international media partners to immediately condemn the drone approach on President Zelenskyy's aircraft as a blatant, reckless act of state intimidation. Frame this as proof of the Kremlin’s desperation coincident with the major escalation at Stepnohorsk.
Economic Resilience: Amplify the successful IMF talks and the currency stability reporting to demonstrate long-term viability and internal institutional strength, directly counteracting the morale impact of the Kherson TPP strike and scheduled energy cuts.

Situation Report