Situation Report

MILITARY INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (MISREP) 25-12-04/008

TIME: 041700Z DEC 2025 SUBJECT: FINAL WARNING. STEPNOHORSK MLD H-HOUR IMMINENT. RESERVE DEPLOYMENT WINDOW CLOSING. IMMEDIATE COUNTER-FIXATION REQUIRED. PRIORITY: CRITICAL - IMMEDIATE ACTION REQUIRED

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1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (Current Operational Picture)

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain

The operational tempo is reaching climax ahead of the anticipated RF Main Land Drive (MLD).

• Stepnohorsk Sector (Zaporizhzhia Axis): Preparation fires (KAB and Artillery) continue at maximum sustained rate. H-Hour remains fixed for NLT 042000Z DEC. UAF Phase Line BRAVO is currently under heavy suppressive fire, confirming the sector as the RF Main Effort (ME).
• Donetsk/Krasnyi Lyman Axis (Fixation Effort): Confirmed active kinetic engagements by RF units (GrV "West" MLRS near Kupyansk, 144th MSD drones near Krasnyi Lyman, 36th Army FPV strikes). This activity directly supports the informational fixation efforts targeting Pokrovsk/Mirnohrad by forcing UAF units to commit resources to holding actions and validating RF claims of widespread advances.
• Deep Rear: Confirmed successful RF targeting of Ukrainian energy infrastructure. Scheduled energy consumption restrictions (Ukrenergo, 05 DEC) confirm the effectiveness of the RF shaping operation designed to degrade morale and logistics resilience concurrent with the MLD launch.

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations

Geomagnetic activity remains HIGH, complicating high-frequency tactical C2 and non-hardened ISR assets, potentially favoring RF kinetic operations that rely on volume fires and fixed command structures. (Confidence: MEDIUM)

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

UAF forces are postured for defensive operations along Phase Line BRAVO. The crucial operational reserve ("BRAVO-BLOCK") remains uncommitted. The time window for optimal deployment is closing rapidly.

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2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action

Intention: RF intends to achieve immediate operational penetration at Stepnohorsk (Zaporizhzhia) through combined robotics/mechanized assault (VDV/«Курьер» UGV), while achieving strategic C2 paralysis in Ukraine via sustained fixation (Donetsk) and strategic IO (geopolitical signaling/decapitation threat).

Observed Tactical Adaptations (Since 1630Z):

1. Synchronization of Fixation: Multiple RF front-line units (GrV West, 144th MSD, 36th Army) are actively reporting small-scale tactical successes (drones, MLRS) via centralized military blogs (Kotsnews, Poddubny), confirming the high degree of synchronization between kinetic fixation and IO amplification.
2. Strategic Narrative Consolidation: Vladimir Putin’s interview (India Today) is being used globally to establish the false pre-text for the MLD: RF is "ending the war the West started." This is a classic narrative justification designed to dampen immediate international condemnation of a major escalation. (Confidence: HIGH)

2.2. Logistics and Sustainment Status

RF ammunition throughput (Score 26.12) is confirmed Critical and capable of sustaining the MLD's initial 48-hour push. The primary vulnerability remains deep rail logistics, now targeted following the degradation of the Kacha AD system. (Confidence: HIGH)

2.3. Command and Control Effectiveness

RF C2 remains effective, demonstrated by the precise timing of the diplomatic messaging (Putin interview) coinciding with the escalation to the MLD launch sequence. The concurrent use of high-tempo KAB strikes and localized drone/artillery engagements confirms synchronized multi-domain control. (Confidence: HIGH)

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3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking)

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness

Readiness remains HIGH, but forces are increasingly stressed by the synchronized multi-axis threats: deep air alerts, fixation efforts in Donetsk, and the high concentration of fire at Stepnohorsk.

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks

• Setback (Energy Resilience): Ukrenergo’s confirmation of scheduled power cutbacks (05 DEC) indicates RF deep strike targeting has severely degraded grid resilience. This will place immediate constraints on civilian morale and military C2 redundancy. (Confidence: HIGH)
• Success (IO Resilience): UAF STRATCOM and affiliated channels are successfully framing Putin’s negotiation and war origin claims as cynical and absurd propaganda (RBC-Ukraine, Tsaplienko), mitigating immediate negative cognitive impact.

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints

The P1 Intelligence Gap (38th GMRB vector) is now the most critical constraint. Delaying the reserve commitment past 041800Z to resolve this gap increases the risk that RF achieves tactical surprise and operational depth.

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4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain)

The Information Warfare (IW) campaign is designed to peak during the Stepnohorsk MLD execution window (041800Z-050000Z).

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5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future Operations)

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA)

COA: VDV Mechanized Breakthrough at Stepnohorsk Followed by Rapid Exploitation. (Confidence: HIGH) RF executes the MLD NLT 042000Z.

• 041700Z - 041900Z: Intense KAB barrage transitions to final preparation fires (artillery, thermobaric). IO tempo maximized.
• 042000Z: 11th VDV spearhead utilizes «Курьер» UGVs to breach Phase Line BRAVO mine belts.
• Post-Breach: Mechanized columns push for operational depth, aiming to disrupt UAF logistics and C2 in the Huliaipole salient. The 38th GMRB maintains fixation/holding action near Dobropillya.

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA)

COA: Dnipro HQ Decapitation Strike Coincident with Stepnohorsk/38th GMRB Link-up. (Confidence: MEDIUM) RF simultaneously executes the MLD and a precision strike (Kinzhal/Iskander) on the Dnipro Operational HQ, capitalizing on the persistent UAV surveillance and geomagnetic interference. The paralyzed UAF C2 allows the 38th GMRB to execute a pre-planned rapid bypass of Dobropillya, linking up with the VDV exploitation force, leading to the rapid isolation and encirclement of UAF forces in the Zaporizhzhia sector.

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points

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6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS AND COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS

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7. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS

7.1. Operational Maneuver (J3)

ACTION: MANDATORY EXECUTION OF PROTOCOL "BRAVO-BLOCK" NLT 041800Z DEC.

1. Immediate Deployment: Accept the risk of the P1 Intelligence Gap. Commit the operational reserve to pre-designated blocking positions NW of Huliaipole, prioritizing the counter-MDCOA vector (38th GMRB bypass). Failure to act now compromises operational depth.
2. C2 Redundancy: Immediately disperse key C2 elements from the Dnipro Operational HQ and activate contingency command nodes. Increase EW protection layers against precision targeting (MDCOA).
3. Local Denial: Stepnohorsk frontline units must prioritize HMG/AGL suppression fire on the low-profile «Курьер» UGV platforms upon detection, regardless of accompanying infantry presence.

7.2. Fires and Targeting (J3/J2)

ACTION: MAXIMIZE INTERDICTION OPPORTUNITY (KACHA AD GAP).

1. Deep Interdiction: Launch prioritized deep strikes (missile/UAS) against P3 rail-logistics choke points immediately. The window afforded by the Kacha Airfield strike is fleeting and must be exploited to interdict fuel supply for the MLD exploitation forces.
2. Counter-Battery: Focus all available heavy artillery and MLRS systems on RF preparation fire positions currently hitting Phase Line BRAVO, aiming to reduce the effectiveness of the final 60 minutes of preparatory fires before H-Hour.

7.3. Information Operations and Strategic Communications (STRATCOM)

ACTION: COUNTER-NARRATIVE DISSEMINATION.

1. Energy Resilience Message: Issue coordinated statements acknowledging the energy constraints (Ukrenergo 05 DEC) but frame the hardship as proof of Kremlin’s desperation and the necessity of continued resistance. Highlight the concurrent €100M German aid to repair systems.
2. Refute Justification: Maintain high-tempo denial of Putin’s war-origin and negotiation claims, framing them as transparent attempts to mask the impending escalation at Stepnohorsk. Utilize international media partners to amplify this denial.