Sitrep 2025-12-04 16:04:32

MILITARY INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (MISREP) 25-12-04/007

TIME: 041630Z DEC 2025 SUBJECT: HIGH-ALERT STATUS. STEPNOHORSK MLD IMMINENT (NLT 042000Z). CRITICAL REQUIREMENT FOR RESERVE COMMITMENT AND COUNTER-FIXATION IN DONETSK. PRIORITY: CRITICAL - IMMEDIATE ACTION REQUIRED

1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (Current Operational Picture)

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain

The operational center of gravity remains the Stepnohorsk sector (Zaporizhzhia Axis), where RF preparatory fires (KAB and artillery) have sustained a high tempo since 041600Z.

Stepnohorsk Sector (CRITICAL): UAF forces are maintaining active defense along Phase Line BRAVO. The expected VDV-led Main Land Drive (MLD) remains fixed for NLT 042000Z.
Donetsk Axis (Shaping Effort): RF information and kinetic fixation efforts are spiking in the Krasnoarmiisk/Mirnohrad sector (near Pokrovsk). Russian sources are actively claiming assaults on Mirnohrad and advances into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. While kinetic verification of these advances is pending, the sustained Information Warfare (IW) focus on these areas (DS Score 0.220602 for Krasnoarmiisk assault) confirms their strategic role in diverting UAF attention and reserves.
Northern Axis: UAV activity confirmed by UAF Air Force near Balakliya (Kharkiv), moving westward. Assessed as persistent deep reconnaissance supporting the Northern fixation/deception effort.

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations

No significant changes. Preparatory fires are unaffected. Geomagnetic storm impacts on unshielded C2/ISR assets are ongoing, favoring RF use of traditional high-volume fires.

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

UAF forces are at full readiness posture. The status of the operational reserve (Protocol "BRAVO-BLOCK") remains pending decision, critically constrained by the persistent P1 Intelligence Gap regarding the 38th GMRB vector.

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action

Intention: RF intends to achieve a rapid, synchronized mechanized penetration at Stepnohorsk (Zaporizhzhia) while paralyzing UAF decision-making via synchronized IO and kinetic fixation in Donetsk (Krasnoarmiisk/Mirnohrad).

Capabilities:

Spearhead Force Multiplier: The 11th VDV combined with the «Курьер» UGV breaching system provides a high-speed, low-casualty method for penetrating UAF minefields. (Confidence: HIGH)
C2 Degradation: RF has demonstrated the capacity to synchronize deep KAB/missile strikes (animated strike map confirmed) with localized infantry operations (Krasnyi Lyman/Yarova fighting) and targeted IW campaigns to degrade UAF Command Cohesion (targeting Syrsky/Pokrovsk narrative). (Confidence: HIGH)

2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations

The main tactical shift (VDV/UGV integration) was confirmed in the previous report. New information confirms the Center Group of Forces ("Otvazhnye") is emphasizing claims on the Pokrovsk-Mirnohrad axis, suggesting the fixation effort is now kinetic as well as informational.

2.3. Logistics and Sustainment Status

RF ammunition throughput (Score 26.12) remains Critical, sustaining the current KAB barrage. The reliance on volunteer groups for specific frontline supplies (confirmed by "Два майора" message) indicates persistent, but managed, logistical friction below the strategic level.

2.4. Command and Control Effectiveness

RF C2 remains effective in synchronization. Putin’s simultaneous interviews and diplomatic maneuvers (India Today) project high-level strategic confidence, reinforcing the overall C2 narrative stability despite minor internal pressures (Rostov judicial corruption, Saratov casualty data).

3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking)

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness

UAF forces maintain a high readiness level along Phase Line BRAVO. Units in Donetsk (Krasnyi Lyman, Dobropillya) are engaged in holding actions against fixing attacks. The prioritization of Counter-UGV tactical dissemination is ongoing.

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks

Success (Sustainment): Germany has announced the emergency provision of €100 million for the immediate restoration of the Ukrainian energy system. This directly mitigates the impact of previous RF deep energy strikes. (Confidence: HIGH)
Success (Strategic): The previously reported $500M Patriot package, combined with the new German aid, strongly counters the primary RF IO narrative of Western abandonment.
Setbacks (Morale/Fixation): The necessity of managing high-tempo combat operations along the Krasnyi Lyman front (Yarova fighting) and simultaneous deep air alerts (Ivano-Frankivsk warning) taxes both forward-deployed and deep air defense assets during the critical build-up to the Stepnohorsk MLD.

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints

P1 Intelligence Gap (38th GMRB vector): This remains the primary constraint on the reserve commitment timeline. Commanders must balance the critical need for immediate reserve deployment against the risk of misplacement due to the P1 gap.

4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain)

The RF strategy utilizes synchronized IO to amplify kinetic successes, project geopolitical strength, and degrade UAF cohesion immediately prior to H-Hour.

Domain	Finding (FACT/Observation/Judgment)	Confidence	Impact on Operations
RF Fixation Effort	DS score confirms Krasnoarmiisk/Mirnohrad assault is the highest-scoring kinetic narrative focus (0.22).	HIGH (JUDGMENT/DS)	Successfully distracts operational attention and forces UAF to weigh reserve commitment across multiple axes.
RF Geopolitical Projection	Putin/TASS stress US reliance on RF nuclear fuel, claims Trump wants quick end, and promotes RT expansion in India.	HIGH (FACT)	Aims to sow discord among Western partners and project global economic and political resilience despite sanctions.
RF Internal Pressure	Publication of high casualty numbers from Saratov (32k) and report of Rostov judicial corruption.	MEDIUM (FACT/IO)	Provides material for UAF IO to undermine RF internal mobilization efforts, although RKN maintains high information control.
UAF Strategic Support	Confirmed €100M German emergency energy aid.	HIGH (FACT)	Critical counter-narrative against energy warfare and Western fatigue claims.
UAF Domestic Morale	Public dissemination of fallen soldier stories (STERNENKO).	HIGH (OBSERVATION)	Reinforces high domestic cost of war, but serves as effective patriotic mobilization content.

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future Operations)

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA)

COA: VDV Mechanized Breakthrough at Stepnohorsk Supported by Deep Fixation. (Confidence: HIGH) RF will launch the MLD NLT 042000Z DEC. The assault will be led by the 11th VDV utilizing «Курьер» UGVs.

Stepnohorsk: Focus on speed and breaching Phase Line BRAVO, supported by intense KAB strikes.
Donetsk: The 38th GMRB and "Otvazhnye" Group will intensify both kinetic attacks (Krasnyi Lyman/Yarova) and IO claims (Mirnohrad) to force UAF command to divert resources away from the primary Stepnohorsk breach area.

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA)

COA: Synchronized C2 Decapitation and Rapid Operational Encirclement. (Confidence: MEDIUM) RF uses the Stepnohorsk MLD as a distraction while the persistent UAV activity (Kharkiv/Dnipropetrovsk) provides targeting for a high-supersonic precision strike (Kinzhal/Iskander) on the Dnipro Operational HQ, paralyzing C2. Simultaneously, the 38th GMRB, utilizing the P1 gap, bypasses Dobropillya entirely, exploiting the absence of committed UAF reserves to achieve a rapid operational depth penetration, setting conditions for the isolation of UAF forces in the Huliaipole Salient.

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points

Event	Estimated Time Frame	Decision Point
Stepnohorsk MLD H-Hour	NLT 042000Z DEC	Initiate final alert and full manning of all forward anti-armor and counter-UAS positions.
Reserve Commitment (BRAVO-BLOCK)	CRITICAL WINDOW (041630Z – 041800Z DEC)	Execute Protocol "BRAVO-BLOCK." The cost of waiting for P1 resolution is now higher than the risk of misplacement.
Kacha AD Exploitation	IMMEDIATE (Next 6 hours)	Prioritize deep strike targeting against rail logistics before RF re-establishes adequate air defense coverage.

6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS AND COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS

Priority	Gap Description	Required Action	Confidence Impact
P1 (CRITICAL)	Current tactical status and exploitation vector of the 38th GMRB near Chervone (Are they bypassing or consolidating?).	IMMEDIATE ISR TASKING (High-resolution EO/IR/SAR) focused exclusively on bypass routes NW of Dobropillya (10km radius).	HIGH on mitigating MDCOA and ensuring optimal reserve deployment.
P2 (TECH/EW)	Specific C2 structure and frequency resilience of the VDV-operated UGV «Курьер».	SIGINT/ELINT focused on 11th VDV assault routes/staging areas. Attempt passive/active jamming techniques during preparatory fire phase.	HIGH on UGV countermeasure effectiveness and mitigating breaching success.
P3 (TARGETING)	Identification of critical RF rail-tanker staging yards replacing destroyed stationary fuel depots.	IMINT/HUMINT tracking of rolling stock movement via Rostov/Crimea/Melitopol routes, utilizing the Kacha AD degradation window.	MEDIUM on ability to disrupt MLD sustainment beyond 48 hours.

7. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS

7.1. Operational Maneuver (J3)

ACTION: IMMEDIATE EXECUTION OF PROTOCOL "BRAVO-BLOCK" (NLT 041800Z DEC).

Risk-Accepting Deployment: Commit the designated operational reserve now, prioritizing blocking positions NW of Huliaipole to counter the MDCOA (38th GMRB bypass). The high confidence in the Stepnohorsk MLD necessitates full defensive integration immediately.
Counter-Fixation Response: UAF STRATCOM must immediately issue statements denying major RF advances in the Pokrovsk/Mirnohrad axis, ensuring operational commanders are not pressured into diverting Stepnohorsk reinforcements based on highly amplified RF IO claims.
Counter-UGV Force Protection: Stepnohorsk defenders must strictly implement the revised Counter-UGV doctrine: dedicate HMG/AGL assets to the neutralization of «Курьер» platforms before they breach the main mine belt.

7.2. Fires and Targeting (J3/J2)

ACTION: CAPITALIZE ON KACHA AD GAP AND DEEP STRIKE TARGETING.

Logistics Interdiction: Prioritize deep strike launches (missile/UAS) against P3 rail-logistics choke points in Northern Crimea/Southern Zaporizhzhia within the next six hours, maximizing the Kacha AD vulnerability window.
C2 Node Defense: Increase physical and technical security measures (EW/SIGINT countermeasures) around the Dnipro Operational HQ, given the persistent high threat of an MDCOA decapitation strike.

7.3. Information Operations and Strategic Communications (STRATCOM)

ACTION: AMPLIFY SUPPORT, EXPLOIT ENEMY FRICTION.

Amplify International Support: Issue immediate, coordinated high-level releases detailing the new €100M German energy aid and the $500M Patriot package. Frame this as a decisive rebuttal to the Kremlin’s narrative of Western collapse/abandonment.
Exploit Internal RF Discord: Leverage the confirmed Saratov casualty numbers (32,000) and Rostov corruption reports in targeting RF internal audiences to undermine domestic mobilization and public trust just as the MLD casualty count begins to climb.
Refute Geopolitical Signaling: Use third-party commentary to counter Putin's statements regarding Trump and US trade, framing them as desperate attempts to influence upcoming Western policy decisions.

Situation Report