Sitrep 2025-12-04 14:04:30

MILITARY INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (MISREP) 25-12-04/002

TIME: 041407Z DEC 2025 SUBJECT: Escalation of Multi-Domain Threats: Sustained RF Information Attack, Critical Kinetic Flank Threat, and Significant UAF Counter-Air Success. PRIORITY: CRITICAL

1. SITUATION OVERVIEW

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain

The operational gravity remains fixed on the Zaporizhzhia Axis, specifically the Huliaipole salient, following the confirmed RF breakthrough at Chervone.

Zaporizhzhia Axis (Contested): UAF General Staff explicitly denies RF claims of seizing Dobropillya (041401Z DEC). This confirms high-intensity contact or extreme forward reconnaissance activity near the Chervone breach, validating the area as a critical forward contact point.
Air Activity (Eastern Direction): UAF Air Force reports continued activity by RF tactical aviation on the Eastern direction (041350Z DEC). This correlates with the previous confirmed KAB strikes, indicating the air preparation cycle is continuous, despite the recent all-clear in Zaporizhzhia (041352Z DEC).
Northern Counter-Fixation: Confirmed UAF fires targeting Russian occupants and logistics nodes in Kursk Oblast from Northern Sumy (041354Z DEC). UAF is actively challenging RF fixation efforts in the North.

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors

No change. The previously identified geomagnetic storm window remains relevant, potentially affecting RF precision guidance (KAB/UAV C2) and UAF electronic defense/offense.

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control

UAF remains defensively postured, reacting to the dual pressure points (Chervone breach and Stepnohorsk staging). The lack of P1 intelligence on the 38th GMRB's exploitation vector remains the key operational friction point.

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action

Intentions (Cognitive Priority): RF has escalated the Information Warfare component, prioritizing the fracturing of transatlantic cohesion via the amplified "US Betrayal" narrative, which is now being sustained globally (041400Z DEC). This campaign is designed to maximize friction during the UAF delegation visit to the US. Capabilities: Confirmed capability to sustain deep-strike logistics challenges via persistent rail interdiction requirements (fundraising appeal for South-Dnieper/Zaporizhzhia units, 041401Z DEC) suggests RF forces are feeling logistical pressure despite high GRAU score.

2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations

The denial of Dobropillya capture by UAF GenStaff suggests the 38th GMRB has not achieved a rapid, decisive exploitation and is meeting stiff resistance or is currently consolidating/rearming in or near Chervone.

2.3. Logistics and Sustainment Status

UAF Deep Strike Confirmed BDA (Fact): ASTRA sources and RF aligned reports confirm successful UAF drone strikes damaged at least two Lukoil fuel reservoirs at Khrenovoe, Voronezh Oblast (041345Z DEC).

Assessment (Judgment): This kinetic success validates the strategic deep strike campaign, further pressuring RF fuel distribution alongside the Tambov strikes, and amplifying the necessity for rail-based transport, which is vulnerable to UAF long-range fires. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

2.4. Command and Control Effectiveness

RF C2 remains effective in synchronizing air assets and ground maneuver (KAB cycle sustained) and in rapidly launching high-impact PSYOPs.

3. FRIENDLY FORCES

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness

Readiness is challenged by the need to maintain strong anti-armor defense on Phase Line BRAVO while simultaneously executing effective deep strike and counter-air operations.

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks

Significant Success (Counter-Air): GUR unit "PRYMARY" reports successful kinetic strike on a RF MiG-29 fighter and damage to the "Irtysh" radar complex in occupied Crimea (041400Z DEC). This success directly degrades RF Air Defense and tactical air superiority capabilities in the South. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Strategic Success (Diplomatic): High-level bilateral meetings with Cypriot President confirmed (041347Z DEC), providing a strong diplomatic counter-point to the RF narrative of dissolving international support. Institutional Success: Prosecutor General's Office reports a major anti-corruption case (forest lands fraud) sent to court (041400Z DEC), reinforcing the narrative of institutional resilience and countering internal RF PSYOPs.

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints

The most critical constraint remains the lack of immediate tactical visibility (P1 Gap) on the 38th GMRB to inform decisive reserve placement against the Huliaipole flank.

4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (CRITICAL THREAT)

The Information Environment remains dominated by the RF influence campaign, which has two main vectors: undermining US/NATO support, and attacking UAF leadership credibility.

Domain	Finding	Confidence	Assessment
IO Threat 1 (Transatlantic Cohesion)	Sustained, high-volume dissemination of the alleged Der Spiegel "US betrayal" transcript by RF proxies (041355Z DEC, 041400Z DEC).	HIGH	CRITICAL THREAT REMAINS ACTIVE. RF intent is to sabotage the Washington delegation. The narrative requires immediate, high-level neutralization.
IO Threat 2 (Leadership Credibility)	New RF PSYOP campaign accusing projects led by First Lady Olena Zelenska of psychological/sexual abuse of children (041334Z DEC).	HIGH	ESCALATION. This shift targets Ukrainian soft power and humanitarian appeal. Designed to degrade domestic morale and international humanitarian support. Requires coordinated humanitarian/STRATCOM defense.
RF Strategic Focus	Putin's highly publicized state visit to India (041352Z DEC).	HIGH	RF is leveraging this visit to demonstrate global geopolitical relevance outside the Western sphere, offsetting the diplomatic pressure stemming from the war.

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA)

RF will attempt to capitalize on the cognitive distraction caused by the IO offensive to execute the kinetic breakthrough.

COA: KAB Re-Cycle and Stepnohorsk MLD Synchronization.

Preparation (Immediate): Following the brief air raid all-clear, RF tactical aviation will initiate a new cycle of KAB strikes in the Zaporizhzhia/Donetsk sectors NLT 041700Z DEC to re-soften defenses.
Exploitation/Penetration: Since the 38th GMRB exploitation is currently contained (Dobropillya denial), the focus shifts back to the main mechanized push. The 37th GMRB MLD at Stepnohorsk will launch NLT 042100Z DEC, relying on the Chervone breach to fix UAF anti-armor resources.

Confidence: HIGH

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA)

COA: Flanking Encirclement via Unacknowledged 38th GMRB Advance. The P1 Gap disguises a successful, rapid, dismounted (possibly utilizing "Muravey" exoskeletons identified previously) flanking maneuver by the 38th GMRB, bypassing Dobropillya and securing key high ground or a bridge NW of Huliaipole NLT 042000Z DEC. This forces UAF to abandon optimized anti-armor positions and fight an unplanned, uncoordinated defense against an immediate rear threat, allowing the 37th GMRB to penetrate Stepnohorsk unopposed.

Confidence: MEDIUM (Due to lack of P1 intelligence)

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points

Event	Estimated Time Frame	Decision Point
KAB Re-Initiation	NLT 041700Z DEC	Initiate protective dispersal of high-value assets (e.g., HIMARS launchers, long-range AD systems).
Stepnohorsk MLD	NLT 042100Z DEC	Commitment of deep reserves (pre-positioned on Phase Line BRAVO) to prevent main line breach.
STRATCOM Counter-IO	IMMEDIATE (NLT 041600Z DEC)	Public release countering both the "US Betrayal" and the "First Lady Abuse" PSYOPs.

6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS AND COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS

Priority	Gap Description	Required Action
P1 (CRITICAL)	Current tactical status and disposition of the 38th GMRB near Chervone. (Are they advancing along an unexpected axis, consolidating, or highly degraded?)	IMMEDIATE ISR TASKING (High-resolution EO/IR/SAR) covering Phase Line BRAVO and potential bypass routes NW of Dobropillya and Chervone. (UNCHANGED)
P2 (KINETIC)	BDA assessment of the Irtysh Radar Complex strike in Crimea. Severity of damage, and estimated time to operational recovery.	SIGINT/IMINT focused on Crimea air defense networks and maintenance activity.
P3 (C2/IO)	Attribution and dissemination metrics for the new "First Lady Abuse" PSYOP (Primary originator, scale of amplification, linkage to previous high-impact IO cells).	OSINT/HUMINT monitoring (S2/S7) focused on key RF Telegram channels (e.g., Voenkor Russkaya Vesna) and associated proxies.

7. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS

7.1. Operational Maneuver (J3)

ACTION: CONFIRM AND REINFORCE PHASE LINE BRAVO.

Reserve Commitment (Risk Acceptance): The lack of P1 intelligence on the 38th GMRB cannot justify further delay. Execute Protocol "BRAVO-BLOCK" now by committing the designated reserve to anti-armor positions on Phase Line BRAVO to counter the MDCOA (flank encirclement).
Air Defense Focus: Given the confirmed successful counter-air strike in Crimea, exploit this temporary degradation of RF radar coverage. Increase aggressive use of UAF tactical aviation in the Zaporizhzhia AO for close air support (CAS) missions during the likely MLD NLT 042100Z DEC.

7.2. Fires and Targeting (J3/J2)

ACTION: INTERDICT FUEL LOGISTICS AND RAIL NETWORK.

Increase the priority of deep strikes against rail interdiction targets connecting Rostov/Crimea to the Zaporizhzhia front, capitalizing on the Voronezh/Tambov fuel depot destruction. Focus on choke points and rolling stock staging areas.
Maintain surveillance and target acquisition for renewed KAB launching platforms.

7.3. Information Operations and Strategic Communications (STRATCOM/NCA)

ACTION: IMMEDIATE, HIGH-LEVEL DUAL COUNTER-IO STRIKE (NLT 041600Z DEC).

Strategic Deflection: A high-level Ukrainian spokesperson (NCA) must immediately issue a statement that aggressively links the successful diplomacy with Cyprus (confirming EU path and sovereignty) to the critical US delegation meetings. The message must frame the Der Spiegel narrative as a desperate, fabricated RF PSYOP intended to distract from UAF diplomatic and kinetic successes (Crimea, Voronezh BDA).
Humanitarian Defense: The Ministry of Health or a designated humanitarian coordinator must immediately issue a strong, evidence-based denial and condemnation of the "First Lady Abuse" claims. Frame the RF PSYOP as an attack on Ukraine's children and most vulnerable populations.

Situation Report