Situation Report

INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (SITREP) UPDATE

FOCUS: ZAPORIZHZHIA AXIS – CHERVONE EXPLOITATION & COGNITIVE PRE-POSITIONING

DTG: 041215Z DEC 25 OPERATIONAL PRIORITY: Contain the 38th GMRB exploitation from Chervone and counter immediate, targeted RF disinformation regarding territorial control (Dobropillya) intended to force premature UAF reserve commitment.

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1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (IPB Step 1)

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain

JUDGMENT: The kinetic main effort is confirmed to be the Zaporizhzhia Axis (Huliaipole), focused on the immediate operational area northwest of Chervone, specifically the approaches to Dobropillya. RF forces are attempting to establish control of Dobropillya in the information domain ahead of kinetic maneuver.

FACT: UAF General Staff and operational sources confirmed defensive control of Dobropillya (near Huliaipole, Zaporizhzhia Oblast), directly refuting high-volume Russian disinformation claims of occupation (041158Z, 041201Z). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

FACT: RF milbloggers claim successful clearing operations in Rodinskoye (Krasnoarmiysk/Donetsk Axis). This suggests continued localized pressure and attempts to secure marginal gains on secondary axes. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM - Based on RF claim only)

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations

FACT: The Zaporizhzhia Regional Military Administration (RMA) officially reported rolling power blackouts due to energy system overload/damage (041202Z). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

JUDGMENT: The confirmed energy disruption in Zaporizhzhia Oblast significantly increases operational risk to rear-area C2 and logistical hubs, validating the existing Dempster-Shafer belief regarding energy disruption (0.244376). The continued Geomagnetic Storm effect on C2 and precision targeting remains relevant.

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

UAF forces successfully countered the immediate wave of RF disinformation regarding Dobropillya. Reserve commitment to Phase Line BRAVO remains the critical control measure required to defend the Huliaipole flank. Reconnaissance confirms an RF UAV is moving toward Sumy from the north (041146Z), indicating continued deep reconnaissance/strike targeting preparation in the North.

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2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (IPB Step 2)

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action

INTENTION (Kinetic): RF kinetic intent is to leverage the 38th GMRB breach at Chervone to penetrate the Huliaipole operational area.

INTENTION (Cognitive): RF intent is to pre-position the information space by falsely claiming Dobropillya. This is a classic hybrid warfare tactic designed to:

1. Force the UAF to expend C2 resources refuting the claim.
2. Induce panic and potentially premature abandonment of local tactical positions.
3. Justify an imminent mechanized assault on Dobropillya. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

CAPABILITIES: RF is actively recruiting external assets via a newly revealed GRU channel (041159Z), indicating sustained efforts to enhance intelligence collection and influence operations abroad. RF continues to field tactical units (Unit "Rubicon" in Donbas, 041141Z) and utilize state/volunteer organizations for logistical sustainment (armor component acquisition, 041155Z).

2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations

CRITICAL ADAPTATION: The immediate, high-volume disinformation campaign surrounding Dobropillya (a critical staging area northwest of the Chervone breach) before kinetic success, strongly indicates that RF command views information pre-emption as integral to the operational maneuver.

2.3. Logistics and Sustainment Status

The logistics environment for RF is characterized by heavy reliance on volunteer organizations ("Dva Mayora" coordinating "Frontline Armor") to supplement state supply lines, particularly for specialized combat components. This suggests localized tactical shortages or bureaucratic delays in providing non-standard gear.

2.4. Command and Control Effectiveness

RF C2 demonstrated synchronized coordination between military elements (Donbas operations) and the IO apparatus (TASS announcements, Dobropillya claim). Domestically, RF C2 is focused on projecting political legitimacy through announcements like the upcoming Putin "Year in Review 2025" event (041201Z). (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)

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3. FRIENDLY FORCES (IPB Step 3)

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness

UAF readiness remains high. The General Staff’s rapid, coordinated counter-IO response to the Dobropillya claim (within 3 minutes) demonstrates effective C2 and strong defensive discipline in the information domain.

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks

Successes:

1. Successful refutation and immediate public neutralization of RF Dobropillya occupation disinformation.
2. Confirmed success of a precision strike against RF personnel (041137Z).
3. Confirmation of record operational successes in November for the "Army of Drones" initiative.

Setbacks:

1. Confirmed rolling power blackouts in Zaporizhzhia Oblast due to infrastructure damage, increasing strain on the civilian population and rear-area military support systems.

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints

The primary constraint remains the timely deployment of the operational reserve to Phase Line BRAVO (NW Huliaipole). Secondary constraints involve minimizing the kinetic impact of rolling blackouts on essential rear-area logistics and medical facilities in Zaporizhzhia City.

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4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (IPB Step 4)

4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns

RF Disinformation (CRITICAL): The specific, high-priority denial regarding Dobropillya (041158Z, 041201Z) confirms that RF IO is now directly interfacing with imminent kinetic operations on the main axis. RF Propaganda (Domestic): Normalization narratives persist (TASS iceberg, Putin press conference), aiming to decouple the home front from the tactical failures and strategic costs of the war.

UAF Propaganda: Focus is on Resilience and Future Normalization. The announcements regarding the potential resumption of European low-cost flights (041144Z, 041148Z) and the memorialization of heroes (Kyiv street naming, 041141Z) are used to project inevitable victory and national continuity.

4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors

Ukrainian morale is bolstered by external diplomatic activity (President Zelenskiy meeting Cyprus President, 041156Z) and confirmed operational victories (drone records). However, the confirmed energy disruption in Zaporizhzhia requires immediate transparency and clear communication from the RMA to mitigate public distress.

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5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (IPB Step 5)

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA)

MLCOA: Synchronized Kinetic Push into Dobropillya (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

1. RF will leverage the previously disseminated disinformation (Dobropillya claimed captured) to launch the 38th GMRB mechanized assault from Chervone within the next three hours.
2. The goal of this assault is to seize Dobropillya and force the UAF to commit the operational reserve to that immediate area, creating an opening for the anticipated 37th GMRB MLD at Stepnohorsk.
3. Fixation attacks (like the confirmed UAV towards Sumy and the claimed clearing near Rodinskoye) will continue to suppress UAF lateral movement.

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA)

MDCOA: C2 Degradation and Operational Penetration (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE)

RF exploits the confirmed energy infrastructure failure in Zaporizhzhia Oblast by launching precision strikes against known backup power sources for UAF regional command hubs (e.g., generators, substations supporting C2 nodes). This engineered C2 failure, combined with the 38th GMRB assault, prevents effective coordination of the reserve commitment, leading to flank exposure and operational penetration toward Huliaipole.

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points (CRITICAL UPDATE)

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6. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS

6.1. Operational Maneuver and Fire Support (J3/J4)

1. EXECUTE PHASE LINE BRAVO COMMITMENT: Reaffirm the decision to commit the operational reserve NLT 041300Z. The disinformation campaign suggests the 38th GMRB attack is imminent. The reserve must be in place before contact.
2. IMMEDIATE FIRE SUPPORT (Dobropillya): Pre-position counter-fire assets (Artillery/MLRS) to saturate known approach vectors into Dobropillya, targeting the anticipated 38th GMRB MLD immediately upon detection.
3. ENERGY VULNERABILITY MITIGATION (J4): Increase physical security around key mobile and static power generation assets supplying UAF C2 nodes in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, anticipating RF attempts to exploit the confirmed power blackouts.

6.2. Intelligence Collection and Reconnaissance (J2)

1. P-1A CHERVONE/DOBROPILLYА (Priority 1 - KINETIC): Sustain maximum ISR focus on the area between Chervone and Dobropillya (Phase Line BRAVO approaches). Requirement: Real-time tracking of any RF armor movement NLT 041400Z.
2. P-23 RODINSKOYE CLAIM VERIFICATION (Priority 3 - KINETIC/IO): Task IMINT/OSINT to verify the RF claim of control over Rodinskoye (Donetsk Axis). If verified, this represents a new localized tactical salient requiring reserve reassessment.
3. P-24 RF GRU Recruitment Channel (Priority 3 - HYBRID/HUMINT): Initiate collection efforts to profile the new GRU recruitment channel (Kotsnews, 041159Z), attempting to identify communication methods and intended target audience abroad.

6.3. Information Operations (J7/STRATCOM)

1. COUNTER-DISINFORMATION (Dobropillya): Maintain proactive messaging confirming UAF control over Dobropillya using geotagged video evidence (as deployed at 041201Z). Prepare a pre-approved message template for rapid dissemination if the village comes under heavy assault or temporary occupation.
2. ENERGY RESILIENCE NARRATIVE: Instruct the ZOA (Zaporizhzhia RMA) to pair blackout announcements with messages emphasizing resilience, rapid repair efforts, and minimizing disruption to essential military logistics. Counter anticipated RF narratives of systemic collapse.

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7. INTELLIGENCE GAPS AND COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS (CCIR)