Situation Report

INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (SITREP) - IMMEDIATE UPDATE ON MLD COMMENCEMENT

DTG: 040030Z DEC 25 OPERATIONAL FOCUS: Assessment of initial RF MLD launch profile and critical intelligence collection in the Zaporizhzhia Axis, concurrently tracking UAF deep strike reaction and cognitive domain developments. REFERENCE: SITREP 040007Z DEC 25; DAILY INTEL SUM 031500Z DEC 25

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1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (IPB Step 1)

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain

The RF Dual-Axis Offensive is in the Initial Maneuver Phase (T+30 minutes).

• Main Effort: 37th GMRB advancing toward Stepnohorsk from Zelyony Gai.
• Exploitation Effort: 38th GMRB advancing northwest toward Phase Line BRAVO (Huliaipole flank) from Chervone.
• Current Status (Judgment): Ground contact is assessed to be imminent, potentially sooner than the 040040Z estimate based on RF IO indicators (Colonelcassad). Forces are now operating at high tactical speed under low light conditions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations

The Geomagnetic Storm continues to induce high levels of electromagnetic interference, primarily affecting high-precision targeting and C2 redundancy. This factor compounds the difficulty in obtaining timely BDA (Battle Damage Assessment) of pre-launch fires and real-time UAS coverage.

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

RF Disposition (Fact): Confirmation of RF forces closing with UAF forward positions. The specific composition of lead elements (e.g., presence of "Kuryer" UGVs) remains an intelligence gap (P-3). UAF Control (Fact): UAF Air Force confirms tracking a one-way attack/reconnaissance Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) in Synelnykivskyi district, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, moving West. This indicates RF tactical reconnaissance or diversionary strikes are being executed against UAF operational depth, potentially targeting GLOC integrity (Pavlohrad supply routes).

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2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (IPB Step 2)

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action

RF Intent is confirmed to be kinetic synchronization: using the psychological pressure of the MLD launch to draw UAF attention while simultaneously executing tactical IO (Colonelcassad post) and reconnaissance deep strikes (Dnipropetrovsk UAV).

2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations

The use of deep fires (or alleged use, as reported by Russian media) targeting Russian deep rear areas (Oryol, Stavropol) simultaneous with the MLD launch has drawn RF IO response, but has not altered the ground maneuver. Judgment: RF ground forces continue to execute the planned Dual-Axis maneuver without tactical deviation, relying on speed to overcome initial UAF defensive fires.

2.3. Logistics and Sustainment Status

UAF deep strike activity against RF strategic targets is maintaining pressure.

• New Kinetic Fact: Reports confirm a successful drone strike against a chemical enterprise in Stavropol Krai (040021Z).
• Judgment: This strike, coupled with the previous fuel reservoir hits in Tambov/Voronezh, reinforces the degradation of RF industrial and logistical resilience, though the effect on immediate MLD sustainment remains minimal (less than 48 hours).

2.4. Command and Control Effectiveness

RF C2 remains effective in coordinating the complex, multi-domain launch, successfully synchronizing ground maneuver with high-intensity IO despite the geomagnetic interference.

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3. FRIENDLY FORCES (IPB Step 3)

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness

UAF forces are postured defensively on the Zaporizhzhia Axis, but are displaying active offensive initiative in the strategic deep domain (Oryol, Stavropol). This counter-offensive signaling is critical for managing the cognitive domain during the enemy's main effort launch.

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks

Tactical Success (Kinetic): Confirmed reports of drone strikes targeting Oryol, Russia (040010Z) and the Stavropol chemical plant. This confirms UAF’s strategic reach is maintained and leveraged at the critical moment of RF MLD commencement. Critical Setback/Gap: The status of the essential counter-preparation BDA (Zelyony Gai) and the commitment/position of the Phase Line BRAVO reserve remain unconfirmed and critical. The delay in confirmation introduces significant operational risk. (CONFIDENCE: LOW)

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints

Time/Visibility: The immediate requirement is to gain tactical visibility on the commitment of Protocol "BRAVO-BLOCK" reserves. If these forces are not in place, the operational consequences of the 38th GMRB exploitation will cascade rapidly.

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4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (IPB Step 4)

4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns

• RF Tactical IO (Fact): The Colonelcassad post ("A second before....") utilizes a highly charged tactical image and timing (040020Z) to confirm the offensive launch, signaling RF confidence and aiming to psychologically dominate the initial moments of contact.
• RF Diplomatic Messaging (Fact): TASS report (040009Z) concerning maintained NATO/RF communication channels aims to project stability and responsibility, contrasting RF’s self-portrayal with the UAF’s simultaneous deep strikes.

4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors

Domestic morale is under intense pressure due to the kinetic launch. The confirmed deep strikes on Oryol and Stavropol are critical counter-narratives that must be immediately amplified by the National Command Authority (NCA) to stabilize morale and demonstrate strategic initiative.

4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments

Fact: A meeting between Minister Umerov and US proxies Kushner/Witkoff in Miami is confirmed (040017Z). Judgment: This diplomatic activity, occurring precisely during the MLD launch, will be seized upon by RF IO to suggest external pressures or political distractions are weakening UAF defense coordination. The outcome of the meeting is a critical information gap (P-4). (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)

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5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (IPB Step 5)

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA)

MLCOA: Full Scale Coordinated Offensive Execution with Phase Line BRAVO Breach Attempt (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

The offensive is active. RF will prioritize exploiting the weakness opened by the 38th GMRB at Chervone.

• Focus: Force UAF to overcommit reserves to the Huliaipole flank, allowing the 37th GMRB (Main Effort) to achieve a decisive breakthrough toward Stepnohorsk against thinned defenses.
• Timeline: Confirmed tactical contact (38th GMRB and 37th GMRB) NLT 040040Z.

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA)

MDCOA: Phase Line BRAVO Collapse and Operational Depth Exploitation (MEDIUM Confidence)

If the reserve commitment (Protocol BRAVO-BLOCK) is delayed or disorganized, the 38th GMRB will achieve operational depth, striking the rear of UAF units defending Stepnohorsk. This necessitates an immediate, costly operational withdrawal across the entire axis.

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points

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6. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS

6.1. Operational Maneuver (J3)

1. EXECUTIVE PRIORITY: CONFIRM RESERVE MOVEMENT. J3 must immediately utilize all means (SATCOM, emergency radio, SAR) to obtain confirmation (GCR/position reports) that the Protocol "BRAVO-BLOCK" reserve is engaged or established at Phase Line BRAVO. A "Movement to Contact" report is insufficient; establishment must be confirmed NLT 040040Z.
2. Air Defense Redirection: Given the UAV detection in Dnipropetrovsk (040022Z), immediately reinforce Air Defense assets protecting the Pavlohrad GLOC. Assume the RF intent is to interdict the main resupply route to the Southern Front.

6.2. Intelligence Collection and Reconnaissance (J2)

1. CRITICAL REQUIREMENT (P-1): Battle Damage Assessment (BDA). J2 must prioritize IMINT/SAR analysis of Zelyony Gai. If tactical visibility is inhibited by the geomagnetic storm, prioritize long-range ELINT/SIGINT profiles of the 37th GMRB's C2 signatures to infer force composition and potential disorganization.
2. P-3 Deep Strike BDA: Initiate secondary collection efforts (OSINT/HUMINT via partners) to confirm the specific target and kinetic impact of the Oryol and Stavropol strikes.

6.3. Information Operations (J7/NCA)

1. Immediate Counter-Narrative: Release pre-prepared messaging that frames the confirmed deep strikes (Oryol/Stavropol) as Ukraine's immediate, strategic response to the MLD. Use the narrative: "While the enemy moves on our land, we strike their strategic depth." This counters the RF tactical IO (Colonelcassad).

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7. INTELLIGENCE GAPS AND COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS (CCIR)