Situation Report

INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (SITREP) - MLD COMMENCEMENT CONFIRMED

DTG: 040007Z DEC 25 OPERATIONAL FOCUS: Transition from Counter-Preparation to Immediate Defensive Containment and Battle Damage Assessment (BDA) on the Zaporizhzhia Dual-Axis Offensive. The RF Main Land Drive (MLD) is assessed to be in the execution phase (T=0). REFERENCE: SITREP 032345Z DEC 25; DAILY INTEL SUM 031500Z DEC 25

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1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (IPB Step 1)

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain

The operational picture remains focused on the Zaporizhzhia Axis.

• Main Effort Zone: Stepnohorsk (Targeted by 37th GMRB, staged at Zelyony Gai).
• Exploitation Zone: Phase Line BRAVO (NW of Chervone, targeted by 38th GMRB).
• Current Status: RF synchronization holds have concluded. Mechanized maneuver elements are assessed to have commenced forward movement from staging areas NLT 040000Z, exploiting maximal darkness.

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations

The Geomagnetic Storm continues to impact high-precision GPS reliance and Command and Control (C2) reliability across both domains. The weather favors mechanized movement under maximum darkness, masking initial launch activity.

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

RF Disposition (Judgment): MLD launch is confirmed by adherence to the highly synchronized timeline. Initial ground contact is expected within 30 minutes (NLT 040040Z). The primary indicator is the sustained, peak Information Operations (IO) intensity which was predicted to synchronize with T=0. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

UAF Control (Fact/Gap): UAF forces on the axis are at maximum alert. However, the execution status of the critical counter-preparation fire mission targeting Zelyony Gai (37th GMRB) is unknown/unconfirmed. This is the primary BDA requirement.

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2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (IPB Step 2)

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action

RF Intent is now Confirmed Execution of the Dual-Axis MLD.

• Tactical Synchronization (Fact): The seamless transition from the Odesa kinetic diversion, the continuation of maximum IO saturation (political/Trump narratives), and the expired launch window (040000Z) confirm highly effective RF multi-domain synchronization.
• RF IO Confirmation (Fact): Pro-Kremlin commentators continue to amplify political chaos narratives precisely at the kinetic launch time (e.g., Colonelcassad 040003Z, NгП раZVедка 032335Z).

2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations

No new enemy tactical adaptations confirmed in the last 20 minutes. The enemy is operating according to the MLCOA established in the previous SITREP.

2.3. Logistics and Sustainment Status

Unchanged. Forward logistical staging supports initial MLD depth. The strategic fuel depot strikes will not degrade operational momentum for at least 48 hours.

2.4. Command and Control Effectiveness

RF C2 remains effective, successfully coordinating the multi-domain launch under severe time constraints and environmental interference (Geomagnetic Storm).

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3. FRIENDLY FORCES (IPB Step 3)

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness

UAF forces are transitioning from planning mode to engagement mode. The operational priority for commanders on the ground (OAC South) is achieving immediate fire superiority against the 38th GMRB exploitation axis (Chervone) while awaiting the full force of the 37th GMRB main effort.

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks

Strategic deep strike success (Tambov/Voronezh) continues to hold, but the tactical challenge of stabilizing the Phase Line BRAVO breach remains paramount and unresolved.

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints

CRITICAL RESOURCE: Time. The tactical advantage of counter-preparation has likely been lost or degraded. Reserves designated for Protocol "BRAVO-BLOCK" must be committed immediately to prevent 38th GMRB from achieving operational depth.

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4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (IPB Step 4)

4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns

• RF Objective: Maintain internal political distraction in Ukraine and sow doubt among international partners regarding UAF leadership legitimacy, specifically during the MLD kinetic phase. This strategy is currently highly effective.
• Strategic Consolidation (Fact): New intelligence confirms Russia's long-term strategic objective of population integration and demographic restructuring, evidenced by a Presidential Decree aimed at attracting foreign talent (032342Z) and extensive media coverage of passportization in occupied territories (DNR, Kherson). This underscores RF commitment to permanent annexation.

4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors

Domestic morale is under extreme pressure due to the synchronized IO campaign and the anticipation of the MLD. The only recent positive counterbalance is the UNGA resolution regarding child deportation (032335Z), which offers minimal tactical relief.

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5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (IPB Step 5)

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA)

MLCOA: Full Scale Coordinated Offensive (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

The MLD launch is now active (T=0).

• Initial Maneuver: 37th GMRB will advance rapidly from Zelyony Gai toward Stepnohorsk.
• Exploitation: 38th GMRB will utilize the breach at Chervone to push NW toward Phase Line BRAVO/Huliaipole flank.
• Timeline: Confirmed mechanized contact (Main Effort) NLT 040040Z.

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA)

MDCOA: Phase Line BRAVO Collapse and Main Effort Exploitation (MEDIUM Confidence)

If UAF reserves designated for Phase Line BRAVO were delayed, or if the 38th GMRB moves faster than anticipated, a flank collapse will occur. This will expose the rear of the UAF defensive groups facing Stepnohorsk, forcing a catastrophic operational withdrawal.

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points

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6. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS

6.1. Operational Maneuver (J3)

1. PRIORITY 1: CONFIRM RESERVE MOVEMENT AND BLOCKING. J3 must immediately verify that the designated reserve (e.g., 82nd Air Assault elements) is committed and establishing anti-armor blocking positions at Phase Line BRAVO. Execution, not intent, must be confirmed.
2. PRIORITY 2: Fire Mission Transition. Immediately transition long-range artillery missions from pre-planned target boxes to high-readiness "Fire on Call" status against confirmed maneuver columns. Prioritize deep strike against RF mobile C2/EW assets accompanying the lead mechanized elements.

6.2. Intelligence Collection and Reconnaissance (J2)

1. CRITICAL REQUIREMENT (P-1): Battle Damage Assessment (BDA). J2 must immediately determine if and when the counter-preparation fire mission against Zelyony Gai was executed, and task all IMINT/SAR assets to assess the effectiveness of the strike (equipment losses, troop disorganization). This is the highest immediate intelligence priority.
2. P-2: First Contact Profile. Redirect all SR-UAS/MIM-140 coverage to the Stepnohorsk and Chervone sectors to provide real-time profiling of the lead elements (e.g., identify presence of "Kuryer" UGVs or "Muravey" exoskeleton teams).

6.3. Electronic Warfare (J6)

1. EW Posture: Given the geomagnetic interference, J6 must maximize active jamming of RF tactical radios (VHF/UHF) in the Stepnohorsk sector to further degrade RF tactical C2 reliability during the launch window.

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7. INTELLIGENCE GAPS AND COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS (CCIR)