Situation Report

INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (SITREP) - MLD LAUNCH IMMINENT: FINAL WINDOW

DTG: 032345Z DEC 25 OPERATIONAL FOCUS: EXECUTE Counter-Preparation Fire against the Russian Federation (RF) Main Land Drive (MLD) staging areas on the Zaporizhzhia Axis. The tactical window for pre-emptive action is closing, expiring NLT 040000Z. REFERENCE: SITREP 032330Z DEC 25; DAILY INTEL SUM 031500Z DEC 25

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1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (IPB Step 1)

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain

The focus remains the Zaporizhzhia Dual-Axis Offensive.

• Main Effort: 37th GMRB staged at Zelyony Gai, targeting Stepnohorsk.
• Exploitation Effort: 38th GMRB secured at Chervone, postured to advance NW toward Phase Line BRAVO (Huliaipole flank).

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations

Maximal darkness persists (optimal cover for mechanized assault). The Geomagnetic Storm continues to degrade high-precision GPS functionality and overall Command and Control (C2) reliability, affecting both friendly and enemy forces.

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

RF Disposition (Fact): The Odesa kinetic diversion is definitively concluded, confirmed by the withdrawal of air raid warnings (032304Z). RF forces in Zaporizhzhia are assessed to be in the final minutes of launch protocol countdown. No active ground movement detected in the last 15 minutes, indicating synchronization holds are in effect. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

UAF Control (Fact): Air Defense assets are now disengaged from Odesa, allowing full tactical focus back onto the Zaporizhzhia axis. The immediate priority is the authorization and execution of the pre-planned counter-preparation fire.

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2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (IPB Step 2)

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action

RF Intent remains centered on achieving rapid operational depth via dual-axis pressure.

• Intent (Judgment): Execute the MLD under cover of darkness and IO saturation, immediately exploiting the political distraction created by the concurrent IO campaign. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Tactical Synchronization (Fact): The cessation of the Odesa raid and the immediate continuation of maximum-intensity IO confirms the RF commitment to multi-domain synchronization preceding the ground offensive.

2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations

Cyber Domain Activity (Fact): A significant service outage affecting Russia's T-Bank has been confirmed (032304Z).

• Analysis: Dempster-Shafer analysis provides the highest belief (0.378) that this is the result of a coordinated Cyber Attack by an unknown actor. While this disruption does not affect RF tactical capability at the FLOT, it indicates successful pressure on RF strategic stability and may complicate immediate financial mobilization supporting the war economy.

2.3. Logistics and Sustainment Status

Unchanged. The immediate MLD is covered by forward-staged resources. Strategic pressure from UAF deep strikes on fuel reservoirs (Tambov/Voronezh) will only materialize after 48 hours of fighting.

2.4. Command and Control Effectiveness

RF C2 remains effective in coordinating the shift between kinetic domains (Air to Ground) and the Information Environment. The willingness to operate under the constraints of the Geomagnetic Storm suggests the operation is time-sensitive and benefits from the obscured environment.

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3. FRIENDLY FORCES (IPB Step 3)

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness

Immediate Readiness (Judgment): UAF forces on the Zaporizhzhia Axis are at maximum alert (Defcon 1). The critical measure of readiness is the "Ready to Fire" status of all long-range tube and rocket artillery assets tasked with the counter-preparation mission against Zelyony Gai.

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks

The successful execution of the deep strike campaign (Tambov/Voronezh) remains a strategic success, but the tactical window for its benefit has not yet arrived. The commitment of reserves to stabilize Phase Line BRAVO remains the critical tactical challenge.

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints

TIME CRITICAL CONSTRAINT: The window for effective counter-preparation fire will expire when RF mechanized units exit staging areas and scatter into maneuver formations. The current estimate places this expiration NLT 040000Z.

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4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (IPB Step 4)

4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns

The strategic IO maneuver is confirmed as highly effective and synchronized with the ground offensive launch.

• RF Narrative Confirmation (Fact): Pro-Kremlin military commentators (e.g., Colonelcassad at 032316Z) explicitly confirm the strategic utility of the political diversion ("Trump threw a fat one").
• Objective: To maintain confusion and demoralization within Ukraine's political and military command structure during the critical MLD launch phase.

4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors

The cessation of the Odesa air raid may offer temporary relief, but the immediate, amplified political defeatism narrative poses a severe threat to sustained domestic morale.

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5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (IPB Step 5)

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA)

MLCOA: Immediate MLD Launch Commences (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

The conclusion of the air raid diversion and the continuation of peak IO stress signal the RF adherence to the pre-planned MLD timeline.

• Timeline: MLD Commencement NLT 040000Z DEC 25.
• Initial Action: 37th GMRB will initiate movement from Zelyony Gai immediately, while the 38th GMRB provides heavy supporting fire and preparatory anti-armor probing attacks NW from Chervone.

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA)

MDCOA: Kinetic Decapitation/Exploitation Combo (MEDIUM Confidence)

RF utilizes the geomagnetic interference to mask the launch of precision, non-GPS guided munitions (likely Iskander/Kinzhal) aimed at UAF Operational C2 nodes (e.g., 5th Assault Brigade HQ). C2 paralysis is achieved precisely when the 38th GMRB executes a rapid breakthrough on the Huliaipole flank.

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points

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6. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS

6.1. Operational Maneuver (J3)

• PRIORITY 1: EXECUTE COUNTER-PREPARATION FIRE MISSION (IMMEDIATE). The order for the full pre-planned barrage targeting 37th GMRB concentrations at Zelyony Gai must be issued now (NLT 032345Z). This is the last opportunity for pre-emptive, non-contact attrition against the main effort.
• PRIORITY 2: ANTI-ARMOR POSTURE. Direct all available Javelin/Stugna/NLAW teams within range of Phase Line BRAVO to move to pre-assigned anti-armor ambush positions to engage 38th GMRB exploitation elements immediately upon first contact.

6.2. Intelligence Collection and Reconnaissance (J2)

• CRITICAL REQUIREMENT: Final Movement Confirmation. Redirect all Short-Range UAS (SR-UAS) coverage onto the departure routes NW of Chervone and the western perimeter of Zelyony Gai. Confirmation of movement is the last tactical warning before the MLD is fully launched.
• NEW REQUIREMENT: T-Bank Cyber BDA. Initiate passive monitoring (SIGINT/OSINT) to confirm the scope and perpetrator of the T-Bank disruption. Assess whether this activity has any correlation with RF military systems integrity.

6.3. Information Environment (G7/NCA)

• URGENT COUNTER-NARRATIVE: The NCA must be prepared to issue a formal, aggressive, and highly visible statement rejecting the diplomatic narrative and linking the anticipated RF ground offensive directly to the preceding political disinformation campaign. This statement must be released simultaneous to the MLD launch to stabilize domestic morale.

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7. INTELLIGENCE GAPS AND COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS (CCIR)