Situation Report

INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (SITREP) - MLD LAUNCH IMMINENT

DTG: 032330Z DEC 25 OPERATIONAL FOCUS: Transition from the RF kinetic diversion (Odesa) to the Main Land Drive (MLD) on the Zaporizhzhia Axis. The window for UAF counter-preparation fire is closing rapidly. REFERENCE: SITREP 032300Z DEC 25; DAILY INTEL SUM 031500Z DEC 25

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1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (IPB Step 1)

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain

The operational center of gravity remains the Zaporizhzhia Axis. RF forces are postured for a coordinated Dual-Axis Offensive:

1. Main Effort (37th GMRB): Staged at Zelyony Gai, targeting the primary UAF defense line at Stepnohorsk.
2. Exploitation Effort (38th GMRB): Breakthrough confirmed at Chervone, creating an acute flanking threat to Phase Line BRAVO (Huliaipole NW approach).

Current Kinetic Status (Fact): The major UAV diversion targeting Odesa appears to be concluded ("minus" confirmed by internal monitoring channels; 032242Z). This cessation signals the end of the RF fixation phase and the immediate precursor to the ground offensive launch.

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations

Maximal darkness is ongoing, providing optimal cover for mechanized assault initiation. The Geomagnetic Storm interference persists, increasing the risk of C2 degradation but also complicating RF use of GPS-guided munitions (e.g., KAB, Gerbera).

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

RF Disposition (Judgment): The cessation of deep kinetic activity in Odesa indicates RF ground forces (37th/38th GMRBs) are transitioning from final synchronization checks to launch protocols. The reported loss of power for 2,000 subscribers in occupied Zaporizhzhia (032243Z) may be preparatory damage or a UAF counter-battery success targeting local grid infrastructure proximal to RF staging areas. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

UAF Control (Fact): UAF Air Defense is disengaging from the Odesa event. The critical control measure remains the holding of designated ground reserves to counter the 38th GMRB breach at Phase Line BRAVO. A new UAV track detected moving South from Kharkiv (032303Z) must be monitored, but must not draw resources from the Zaporizhzhia theater.

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2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (IPB Step 2)

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action

RF Intent is achieving immediate operational depth before UAF reserves can stabilize the Huliaipole flank.

• Intention (Judgment): Execute the MLD immediately following the Odesa kinetic conclusion, capitalizing on the peak of the concurrent IO campaign (Trump/Umerov narrative). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Primary COA: 37th GMRB launches the main mechanized breach at Stepnohorsk, supported by UGVs ("Kuryer") for mine-clearing, while the 38th GMRB advances rapidly NW from Chervone to bypass fortified positions.

2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations

The duration and effectiveness of the Odesa UAV diversion confirm RF operational art focused on multi-domain synchronization. The rapid shift in RF propaganda focus (amplifying Trump/Umerov messages immediately upon Odesa conclusion) confirms the timeline prioritization. RF media report of "Отбой!" (Stand Down) (032242Z) suggests the local tactical goals for the diversion phase have been met.

2.3. Logistics and Sustainment Status

The 260th GRAU Arsenal sustained throughput remains CRITICAL (26.12). While the UAF deep strikes on fuel depots (Tambov/Voronezh) create a strategic vulnerability for future exploitation, they do not impede the immediate MLD launch and initial 48 hours of fighting.

2.4. Command and Control Effectiveness

RF C2 shows high effectiveness in coordinating the kinetic closure in Odesa with the simultaneous launch of the decisive IO maneuver. The threat posed by the Geomagnetic Storm suggests RF operational planners have judged the benefits of the darkness/storm window (cover for advance) outweigh the risks (C2/PGM degradation). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

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3. FRIENDLY FORCES (IPB Step 3)

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness

Phase Line BRAVO (Huliaipole): Readiness must be at Defcon 1 (Imminent Launch Posture). All designated counter-preparation fire missions must have the "Fire Mission Standby" status confirmed. Ground reconnaissance assets must confirm the initial movement of 38th GMRB elements NW from Chervone.

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks

Tactical Setback (Fact): The UAF was forced to commit AD resources to Odesa, momentarily reducing air cover over the main axis. Strategic Success (Fact): Confirmed kinetic destruction of three diesel fuel reservoirs in Tambov and damage in Voronezh will degrade RF operational mobility in the medium term (NLT 48 hours).

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints

CRITICAL Constraint: The authorized reserve forces must remain dedicated to blocking the 38th GMRB flanking exploitation. No resources are to be diverted toward the Kharkiv axis UAV track until its intent is definitively confirmed (currently assessed as deep reconnaissance or secondary diversion).

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4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (IPB Step 4)

4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns

The strategic IO campaign is now at maximum intensity, synchronized with the anticipated MLD launch.

• Key Narrative (Fact): RF channels are amplifying confirmation of the Umerov-Kushner/Whitkoff meeting in Miami (032247Z), immediately leveraging Trump's pre-recorded commentary on "pretty good meeting with Putin" (032249Z) to create a narrative of pre-negotiated Ukrainian defeat or territorial concessions.
• Objective: To psychologically paralyze the UAF National Command Authority (NCA) and erode domestic morale, making the news of a ground offensive breakthrough more demoralizing. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors

Domestic sentiment is highly vulnerable due to the stress of the Odesa air raid and the rapid, sustained amplification of the diplomatic defeatism narrative. This pressure is designed to force reactive political decision-making, complicating UAF military command stability.

4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments

The confirmed meeting gives RF IO a tangible, high-profile event to exploit, suggesting Western political forces are bypassing Kyiv's official channels. Immediate, firm counter-narrative from Kyiv is required to preserve diplomatic credibility during the fighting.

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5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (IPB Step 5)

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA)

MLCOA: Immediate MLD Launch and Dual-Axis Breach (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

The cessation of the Odesa diversion marks the final tactical trigger. RF forces are assessed to be initiating the assault maneuver now.

• Timeline: MLD Commencement NLT 040000Z DEC 25 (Within the next 90 minutes).
• Maneuver: 37th GMRB executes the main breach at Stepnohorsk. 38th GMRB utilizes Chervone as a base of fire and pushes anti-armor capable reconnaissance groups (possibly supported by "Muravey" exoskeletons for sustained dismounted ops) NW to scout and fix defenses along Phase Line BRAVO.

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA)

MDCOA: Kinetic Decapitation/Exploitation Combo (MEDIUM Confidence)

RF utilizes the geomagnetic storm to mask a high-precision strike on a UAF C2 node (e.g., 5th Assault Brigade HQ or Pavlohrad GLOC control point). The resultant C2 paralysis coincides with the 38th GMRB achieving a rapid, unopposed penetration of the Huliaipole flank, leading to a large-scale operational maneuver success.

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points

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6. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS

6.1. Operational Maneuver (J3)

• PRIORITY 1: EXECUTE COUNTER-PREPARATION FIRE NLT 032345Z. The tactical opportunity to degrade the 37th GMRB main effort is now. Failure to strike within this window will allow the RF assault to launch from covered and prepared positions.
• PRIORITY 2: ANTI-ARMOR AMBUSH POSTURE. Reinforce small-unit, integrated defense at Phase Line BRAVO (Huliaipole flank). Focus immediate targeting priority on the 38th GMRB’s supporting logistics and fire bases established in Chervone.

6.2. Intelligence Collection and Reconnaissance (J2)

• CRITICAL REQUIREMENT: 38th GMRB Movement Confirmation. Redirect all available short-range UAS (SR-UAS) and human observers to the immediate sector NW of Chervone. First confirmation of vehicles moving past the established forward line of troops (FLOT) is the tactical trigger for reserve commitment.
• NEW REQUIREMENT: Kharkiv UAV Track. Assign dedicated SIGINT/EW monitoring to the UAV reported moving south from Kharkiv. Determine if this is high-altitude strategic reconnaissance or a follow-on kinetic strike vector.

6.3. Electronic Warfare and C2 (J6)

• EW Activation: Initiate maximum EW jamming protocols (as previously recommended) focused on known RF UGV/drone C2 bands in the Zelyony Gai/Chervone sector, aiming to sever control links for "Kuryer" or reconnaissance UAVs ahead of the ground advance.

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7. INTELLIGENCE GAPS AND COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS (CCIR)