Situation Report

INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (SITREP) - POST-STRIKE KINETIC SHIFT

DTG: 032200Z DEC 25 OPERATIONAL FOCUS: Transition from Air/Cognitive Fixation to Ground Offensive (Zaporizhzhia Axis) REFERENCE: SITREP 032135Z DEC 25

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1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (SITREP)

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain

The operational center of gravity is shifting back to the Zaporizhzhia Axis following the conclusion of the major air threat over Kyiv. The dual-axis threat remains active: the 37th GMRB staged at Zelyony Gai (Stepnohorsk vector) and the 38th GMRB positioned NW of Chervone (Huliaipole flank vector). The tactical pause on the ground is maintained, indicating pre-attack synchronization is nearing completion.

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations

Darkness (maximal cover) persists. Residual effects of the Geomagnetic Storm continue to pose a risk to precision-guided munitions and satellite communications, potentially degrading the precision of both offensive (RF KAB) and defensive (UAF C2) systems.

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

RF Control (Fact): RF air assets and BpLA forces have ceased high-intensity strikes on Kyiv (Air Raid terminated 21:46Z). UAV activity is now reported in the Lipetsk region (21:48Z, RF source), suggesting UAF kinetic responses are drawing RF attention north. UAF Control (Fact): UAF Air Defense units are securing Kyiv and reverting to standby readiness. Critical focus must now revert to ground defense readiness in Zaporizhzhia.

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2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (THREAT ASSESSMENT)

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action

RF Intentions have completed the fixation phase (Air/IO) and are now focused on kinetic execution of the Main Land Drive (MLD).

• Intent (Judgment): To exploit the exhaustion of UAF AD interceptors and the psychological stress induced by the coordinated attack, launching the dual-axis ground assault before UAF C2 can fully re-center on the front lines.
• Capabilities (Fact): RF demonstrated highly effective synchronization between strategic messaging (TASS/Zakharova) and kinetic action (Kyiv strike). This synchronization capability remains the primary threat.

2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations

The shift of RF attention/resources to reporting UAF strikes on Zaporizhzhia energy infrastructure (Balitsky, 21:38Z) is a standard RF information operation designed to: 1) Justify their own recent strikes, and 2) Paint UAF as the aggressor in disputed territories. This IO effort is designed to run parallel to the MLD launch. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

2.3. Logistics and Sustainment Status

No immediate change to frontline logistics status, though the confirmed UAF deep strikes against Tambov and Voronezh fuel infrastructure will begin to impact rail transport logistics NLT 48 hours. The 260th GRAU Arsenal sustained throughput score remains CRITICAL (26.12).

2.4. Command and Control Effectiveness

RF C2 is demonstrating high effectiveness in multi-domain synchronization (Air/IO/Political messaging). However, the delay in the initial MLD (37th GMRB) suggests friction remains at the tactical execution level (Corps/Division).

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3. FRIENDLY FORCES (BLUE FORCE TRACKING)

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness

UAF AD readiness is confirmed high following successful engagement over Kyiv. The immediate tactical focus is the hardening of defensive positions along Phase Line BRAVO (Huliaipole NW approach) against the anticipated 38th GMRB exploitation.

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks

Success (Fact): Successful termination of the Kyiv air attack with minimal strategic impact achieved by the adversary. Success (Fact): New Zealand's commitment of $15 million for the PURL program (21:42Z) reinforces international support narratives. Success (Fact): UAF PSYOP is actively engaging RF servicemen morale via video outreach (21:50Z).

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints

The constraint remains the need to maintain reserve discipline. The successful AD operations must not lead to premature redeployment of mobile fire groups (MOGs) or strategic ground reserves away from the Zaporizhzhia axis.

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4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (COGNITIVE DOMAIN)

4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns

RF IO continues to focus heavily on undermining UAF strategic cohesion and morale:

1. Elite Division/Political Chaos (TASS, 21:56Z): Zakharova's commentary targeting Yermak/Zelensky’s wife attempts to reinforce the internal strife narrative identified in the previous SITREP (GUR/VSU clash).
2. Historical Narrative Manipulation (Colonelcassad, 21:35Z): RF sources are promoting a narrative of inevitable victory by contrasting perceived 2022 failure with projected 2025 success, boosting domestic strategic morale.
3. Domestic Morale Support (RF Center Grouping, 22:03Z): Videos promoting the bravery and dedication of combat medics are deployed to stabilize internal troop morale ahead of the MLD.

4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors

Public sentiment is volatile due to the concluded air attack, but the announcement of successful AD engagement and confirmed international aid (NZ) provides counter-leverage. The key risk remains the amplification of internal political strife narratives by RF IO.

4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments

The New Zealand aid is a positive indicator of sustained coalition commitment, directly countering the RF narrative that Western partners are negotiating peace over Ukraine’s head (per previous TASS/Trump IO).

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5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (FUTURE OPERATIONS)

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA)

MLCOA: MLD Execution Precursor to Sunrise (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

The conclusion of the Kyiv air campaign removes the final major variable needed for RF synchronization. The tactical pause will break immediately following the maximal period of darkness.

• Timeline: MLD NLT 040300Z DEC 25 (0100Z to 0300Z is the highest probability window).
• Maneuver: 38th GMRB executes flank pressure NW toward Huliaipole to fix reserves, allowing the 37th GMRB to commence the mechanized breach at Stepnohorsk/Zelyony Gai utilizing UGV breach technology ("Kuryer") against depleted forward defenses.

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA)

MDCOA: Precision Strike Decapitation (MEDIUM Confidence)

RF utilizes a highly precise, low-observable asset (e.g., Kinzhal) to target critical UAF C2 infrastructure near the frontline (e.g., 5th Assault Brigade HQs, Pavlohrad GLOC control nodes). This strike is coupled with an immediate, overwhelming MLD, attempting to achieve local operational paralysis. The residual geomagnetic interference could degrade UAF ability to detect/intercept the strike.

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points

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6. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS

6.1. Operational Maneuver (J3)

• PRIORITY 1: EXECUTE COUNTER-PREPARATION FIRES: Execute pre-authorized deep strikes against the 37th GMRB staging area at Zelyony Gai (NLT 040200Z DEC 25). Priority targets: Assembly Areas (AAs), C2 vehicles, and UGV staging points.
• PRIORITY 2: ANTI-ARMOR AMBUSH DEPLOYMENT: Task forward maneuver elements facing the 38th GMRB flank (Chervone) to establish concealed anti-armor ambush positions along suspected NW exploitation routes toward Huliaipole.

6.2. Intelligence Collection and Reconnaissance (J2)

• CRITICAL REQUIREMENT SHIFT: Immediately redirect all IMINT/SAR assets that were fixed on Kyiv back to the Zaporizhzhia axis. Primary collection goal: Detecting movement by the 38th GMRB on the Huliaipole NW vector. A confirmed movement start time is the final tactical trigger.
• EW SIGINT FOCUS: Prioritize SIGINT collection on RF EW emissions and jamming attempts in the Zaporizhzhia sector. A spike in RF EW activity will correlate strongly with the MLD commencement.

6.3. Strategic Communications (NCA / G7)

• COUNTER-NARRATIVE AMPLIFICATION (IMMEDIATE): Utilize the announcement of New Zealand aid to issue a statement contrasting confirmed Western support with the RF's use of mass-casualty UAV strikes immediately prior to seeking diplomatic negotiations. Frame the aid as a direct rebuttal to RF IO of Western fatigue.
• DOMESTIC COHESION MESSAGE: Issue authoritative statements immediately rebutting the political friction narratives (Zakharova/Yermak). Reaffirm NCA and military leadership unity ahead of the critical ground battle.

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7. INTELLIGENCE GAPS AND COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS (CCIR)