Situation Report

INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (SITREP) - CRITICAL KINETIC/COGNITIVE UPDATE

DTG: 032135Z DEC 25 OPERATIONAL FOCUS: Zaporizhzhia Axis (Huliaipole/Stepnohorsk) and Air Defense/Information Environment (Kyiv) REFERENCE: SITREP 032105Z DEC 25

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1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (SITREP)

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain

The ground situation in the Zaporizhzhia axis remains in a tactical pause, with the RF 37th GMRB (Zelyony Gai) delaying the Main Land Drive (MLD). The 38th GMRB continues to exploit the Chervone breakthrough, but no confirmed major NW maneuver toward Huliaipole has been detected since 21:05Z.

• Critical Development (Fact): The RF primary kinetic activity is currently focused on the Cognitive and Air Domains. A sustained, multi-directional Shahed/BpLA strike wave is hitting Kyiv and the adjacent regions (Ukrainka area), forcing UAF Air Defense (AD) commitment. A new UAV group is reported moving from Donetsk toward Dnipropetrovsk (21:21Z), indicating a dispersed, regional strike campaign.

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations

No change. The critical window for Geomagnetic Storm interference has passed (per 21:05Z SITREP). UAF systems are to be monitored for residual degradation.

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

UAF Control (Fact): UAF AD units are actively engaged in Kyiv (21:14Z). At least one intercept has been confirmed by local reporting (21:16Z). This action successfully draws UAF attention and interceptor expenditure away from potential targets closer to the frontline. RF Control (Judgment): RF has successfully synchronized the tactical pause on the ground with a high-intensity psychological and air-based operation.

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2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (THREAT ASSESSMENT)

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action

RF Intentions are confirmed to be centered on a synchronized, multi-domain attack:

1. Air Denial/Attrition: Continue kinetic UAV strikes to force UAF AD expenditure and maximize civilian morale damage.
2. Strategic Destabilization (CRITICAL): Simultaneously exploit the Kyiv strikes by releasing potent, high-level disinformation regarding US proxy diplomatic meetings, promoting the narrative that RF seeks peace while actively escalating conflict.

2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations

Air Operations Adaptation (Fact): RF appears to be using two distinct UAV corridors: one focused on the capital, and a second targeting regional centers (Dnipropetrovsk region), maximizing the geographic stretch of UAF AD resources. IO Adaptation (Fact): Immediate dissemination of the GUR/VSU alleged internal clash (21:07Z, RF source). This narrative is designed to reinforce internal friction narratives (e.g., Sternenko criticism, funding deficit) and distract the National Command Authority (NCA) during the air attack. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - Based on DS analysis of disinformation)

2.3. Command and Control Effectiveness

The continued synchronization failure (Delayed MLD) on the ground is offset by highly effective synchronization in the Information/Air domain. This suggests the RF C2 difficulty is localized to complex combined arms operations (37th GMRB maneuver) but not strategic messaging or simple kinetic strikes. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)

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3. FRIENDLY FORCES (BLUE FORCE TRACKING)

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness

AD Engagement (Fact): UAF 9th ZeBR "Sich" is successfully engaging Shaheds (21:13Z). This is a positive indicator of AD readiness, but the sustained volume requires critical monitoring of interceptor stocks. Morale Mitigation (Fact): UAF media personalities are immediately counter-leveraging the AD success to solicit donations, attempting to turn the kinetic event into a morale and resource opportunity.

3.2. Resource Requirements and Constraints

The immediate, overriding constraint remains the internal political friction and the $19 Billion UAF budget deficit. This vulnerability is currently being actively targeted and amplified by RF IO via multiple vectors (corruption, alleged internal strife).

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4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (CRITICAL DOMAIN SHIFT)

4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns

RF IO is executing a coordinated campaign to erode strategic resolve:

4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors

Public sentiment is strained by the immediate air threat, compounded by the escalating diplomatic pressure (Trump statements) and domestic political crises. The simultaneous attack across physical and cognitive domains is maximizing psychological stress. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

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5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (FUTURE OPERATIONS)

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA)

MLCOA: Full Synchronization and MLD NLT 040300Z DEC 25 (High Confidence)

RF will conclude the high-intensity UAV strike wave (likely NLT 23:00Z) after confirming the dispersion of UAF AD reserves. The tactical silence on the ground will continue until the cover of darkness is maximized. The MLD by the 37th GMRB at Stepnohorsk will re-commence in coordination with sustained pressure or an exploitation attempt by the 38th GMRB at Chervone.

• Decision Point Implication: The current operational lull (21:35Z to 00:00Z) is the final, narrow window for UAF to execute counter-preparation fires at Zelyony Gai without risk of fratricide during active maneuver.

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA)

MDCOA: Internal Destabilization Precursor to MLD (Medium Confidence)

RF IO attempts (e.g., GUR/VSU clash narrative) successfully trigger a diversion of military/security leadership (NCA/GUR/SBU) to manage the internal political crisis or investigate false security threats in Kyiv. This internal focus paralysis coincides precisely with the surprise, overwhelming launch of the MLD at Stepnohorsk, utilizing UGV breach technology ("Kuryer") against thinned Huliaipole defenses.

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points

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6. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS

6.1. Operational Maneuver (J3)

• PRIORITY 1: MAINTAIN GROUND RESERVE DISCIPLINE: The ongoing Kyiv UAV strike is a fixing operation. DO NOT redeploy strategic ground reserves from the Zaporizhzhia axis to central defense, regardless of IO or kinetic pressure.
• PRIORITY 2: ANTI-IO C2 HARDENING: All frontline C2 nodes must be on high alert for RF jamming coinciding with the new MLD window (00:00Z - 04:00Z). Utilize redundant communications systems (radio/wired) and enforce EW emission control (EMCON).

6.2. Intelligence Collection and Reconnaissance (J2)

• CRITICAL REQUIREMENT (IMINT/SIGINT): Focus all available ISR assets on verifying the status of the 38th GMRB at Chervone. Specifically confirm if they are consolidating (MLCOA) or preparing for an aggressive NW exploitation (MDCOA). Confirming vehicle disposition will dictate the required level of commitment to Phase Line BRAVO.
• IO COUNTER-MEASURE: Immediately task psychological operations (PSYOP) teams to monitor and develop counter-narratives for the alleged GUR/VSU clash report, emphasizing institutional unity during the attack.

6.3. Strategic Communications (NCA / G7)

• DIPLOMATIC NARRATIVE CONTROL (URGENT): The NCA must issue a rapid response to the Trump/TASS statements. The message must unequivocally reject the notion of RF seeking peace while simultaneously executing a mass-casualty UAV strike on the capital. Frame the strikes as a direct attempt to coerce diplomatic concessions.
• INTERNAL STABILITY: Command must issue a high-level, authoritative denial of the GUR/VSU clash rumors within one hour. Undermining this specific IO is critical to preventing immediate domestic security panic.

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7. INTELLIGENCE GAPS AND COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS (CCIR)