Situation Report

MILITARY INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (SITREP)

TIME: 031805Z DEC 25 SUBJECT: SOUTHERN AXIS: PAVLOGRAD GLOC TARGETING CONFIRMED. STEPNOHORSK MLD IMMINENCE MAINTAINED. NEW RF BOOBY-TRAP TACTIC IDENTIFIED.

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1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (SIT-SUM)

A. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain

The operational center of gravity remains the Zaporizhzhia axis, characterized by a synchronized RF dual-axis ground offensive coupled with focused deep kinetic strikes aimed at paralyzing UAF logistics and command structures.

1. Huliaipole/Stepnohorsk (CRITICAL): The dual-axis threat (38th GMRB exploiting Chervone; 37th GMRB staged for MLD at Zelyony Gai) remains the primary kinetic concern (Fact, HIGH Confidence).
2. Deep Strike Axis (Dnipro/Pavlohrad): The enemy is successfully executing the predicted deep strike softening phase. Air Force reporting (1753Z) confirms a UAV (Moped) tracking toward Pavlohrad from Poltava, validating the enemy's intent to strike this critical rail/road intersection and C2 hub. This UAV is estimated to reach the Pavlohrad area NLT 031845Z (Judgment, HIGH Confidence).
3. Kryvyi Rih/Sloviansk: Updated Battle Damage Assessments (BDA) confirm severe infrastructure damage in Kryvyi Rih (10+ high-rises, 20 private homes). RF air assets dropped multiple Guided Aerial Bombs (KAB/FAB) on Sloviansk, causing further civilian casualties (Fact, HIGH Confidence).

B. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations

The active Geomagnetic Storm continues to degrade precision guidance systems and communications, creating conditions conducive for masked RF MLD initiation. Adversary forces may seek to utilize this interference window to launch the Stepnohorsk breach. New weather warnings in Kharkiv suggest localized weather will hamper reconnaissance in the Eastern sector.

C. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

UAF forces are in a maximum state of readiness on the Southern Axis. Control measures are concentrated on preventing the 38th GMRB from exploiting Chervone toward Huliaipole (Protocol BRAVO-BLOCK) while preparing massed fires for the imminent Stepnohorsk MLD (37th GMRB).

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2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (THREAT-ASSESS)

A. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action

RF intention remains the execution of the Stepnohorsk MLD, synchronized with kinetic strikes designed to achieve C2/logistics paralysis in the UAF operational depth.

• Targeting Priority (Confirmed): The confirmed UAV vector toward Pavlohrad (1753Z) indicates the RF J3 prioritizes disrupting logistics and C2 in the Dnipro sector immediately preceding the anticipated ground assault (Judgment, HIGH Confidence).
• Tactical Adaptation (Booby Traps): SSO reporting from Donetsk confirms the enemy is employing a new, highly dangerous tactic of booby-trapping deceased personnel with grenades (Fact, HIGH Confidence). This is designed to inflict secondary casualties, degrade UAF casualty evacuation (CASEVAC) operations, and increase tactical risk for dismounted patrols.
• Escalation Intentions: RF IO sources (Kotsnews) are actively polling domestic appetite for significant naval escalation, including the "obliteration" of Ukrainian ports or advancing on Odesa. This signals high-level RF interest in strategic maritime expansion (Judgment, MEDIUM Confidence).

B. Logistics and Sustainment Status

The immediate GRAU Score remains 26.12 (CRITICAL). The successful UAF deep strikes on RF fuel depots (Tambov/Voronezh) will degrade RF sustainment over the mid-term (2-5 days), but the immediate 24-hour readiness of the 37th/38th GMRBs remains unaffected for the MLD.

C. Command and Control Effectiveness

RF C2 remains effective, demonstrated by the continuation and refinement of the deep strike kinetic synchronization (UAV targeting Pavlohrad) to directly support the impending ground offensive.

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3. FRIENDLY FORCES (BLUE-FORCE)

A. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness

UAF reserves remain committed to holding the dual-axis threat. Readiness levels are high, but the concentration of logistics and C2 nodes in the Pavlohrad area is critically vulnerable to the confirmed incoming UAV and subsequent ballistic threats. Dnipropetrovsk AD assets successfully neutralized 6 UAVs earlier in the day, indicating robust localized defense, but the current threat demands maximum AD allocation.

B. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks

• Success (Tactical): SSO confirmed tactical neutralization of enemy personnel in Donetsk, despite facing new booby-trap countermeasures (Fact, HIGH Confidence).
• Success (AD): Six RF UAVs neutralized in Dnipropetrovsk region (Fact, HIGH Confidence).
• Setback (Deep Strike Impact): Confirmed severe residential damage and civilian casualties (including children) in Kryvyi Rih, Sloviansk, and Kharkiv (Fact, HIGH Confidence).

C. Resource Requirements and Constraints

CRITICAL CONSTRAINT: Air Defense (AD) assets capable of intercepting high-speed UAVs and TBMs focused on the Pavlohrad GLOC (CR Priority 1). NEW CONSTRAINT: Updated SOPs and equipment (EOD, long-range grapple tools) for handling enemy deceased personnel, given the confirmed use of lethal booby traps (High priority for frontline units).

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4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain)

A. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns

RF IO is leveraging multiple simultaneous narratives:

1. Western Abandonment: Amplifying statements from NATO Secretary General Rutte regarding the lack of a "Plan B" if US aid ceases, aimed at shattering confidence in sustained Western support (Fact/IO, HIGH Confidence).
2. Internal Division: Intensified focus on Ukrainian political decisions (removal of Russian from special protection in Language Law), framed as persecution and an ideological justification for the conflict (Fact/IO, HIGH Confidence).

B. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors

Public sentiment is heavily strained by the updated casualty and damage reports from Kryvyi Rih, Sloviansk, and Kharkiv. The injury of a three-year-old child in Kryvyi Rih is a highly effective, albeit unintentional, RF psychological weapon.

C. International Support and Diplomatic Developments

• Positive Development: The EU proposal to utilize frozen Russian assets or borrow €90 billion for Ukraine over the next two years provides a strong financial counter-narrative to RF claims of collapsing Western support (Fact, HIGH Confidence).
• Strategic Hardening: The formal dissolution of the Russia-NATO Council hardens the geopolitical stance, reinforcing the high-stakes nature of the conflict.

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5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future Operations)

A. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA)

MLCOA: Full Execution of Synchronized Ground and Deep Strike Offensive. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

1. Logistics Softening (Immediate): RF continues to prosecute the confirmed UAV strike on the Pavlohrad GLOC intersection/C2 node (ETA NLT 031845Z).
2. Huliaipole Fixation (031830Z - 031930Z): RF 38th GMRB attempts to increase pressure or conduct probing attacks from Chervone to fix UAF reserves.
3. Stepnohorsk MLD Initiation (NLT 031930Z): RF 37th GMRB launches the main mechanized breach at Stepnohorsk, utilizing the window of maximal C2 disruption caused by the deep strikes and geomagnetic storm effects.

B. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA)

MDCOA: Ballistic Decapitation Strike and Flanking Breach. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

1. RF follows the initial UAV strike on Pavlohrad with a high-precision TBM (Iskander-M) aimed at disrupting a critical Corps-level C2 hub in the Dnipro/Pavlohrad operational rear (Failure of Protocol GHOST-SHIFT).
2. Simultaneously, the 38th GMRB launches a rapid, unexpected exploitation maneuver from Chervone, forcing the premature commitment of the CHARLIE-FLANK reserve package toward Huliaipole.
3. The Stepnohorsk MLD (37th GMRB) achieves a major breakthrough against thinned UAF lines, leading to an operational collapse on the Southern Front.

C. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points

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6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS AND COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS (CCIR)

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7. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS (ACTION-INTEL)

1. Immediate Counter-UAV and C2 Protection (J3/J6):

   • AD Execution: Immediately implement maximum-readiness AD posture around Pavlohrad. Divert any available highly mobile AD systems (e.g., Gepard, Avenger) to the estimated UAV flight path corridor to ensure interception NLT 031830Z (CR Priority 1).
   • C2 Dispersal: EXECUTE PROTOCOL GHOST-SHIFT. Ensure all operational C2 nodes in the Dnipro/Pavlohrad sector maintain high-frequency displacement (30-minute shifts) to counter the highly probable follow-up TBM strike (MDCOA).
   • EW Activation: Maximize EW jamming output across all relevant spectrums targeting RF C2 and guidance systems to amplify the effects of the geomagnetic storm during the anticipated MLD window (031930Z).

2. Tactical Operations and Force Protection (J3/J5):

   • Anti-MLD Fire Planning: Execute pre-targeting authorization for Zelyony Gai (37th GMRB staging). Massed artillery and MLRS systems must be on 15-minute fire-for-effect standby, ready to engage upon confirmation of movement toward Stepnohorsk (CR Priority 2).
   • Force Protection Warning: Issue an immediate, Level 1, all-units warning regarding the confirmed RF tactic of booby-trapping deceased personnel (SSO/Donetsk report). Adjust SOPs to mandate EOD/drone reconnaissance clearance before handling any casualties or engaging in BDA (CR Priority 3).
   • Containment: Maintain the high-priority mission of PROTOCOL "BRAVO-BLOCK" against the 38th GMRB at Chervone.

3. Strategic Communications and Diplomatic Leverage (NCA/G7):

   • Counter-IO: Publicly and immediately frame the EU's €90 billion aid proposal as a definitive rejection of RF narratives regarding Western abandonment ("NATO Plan B") and a confirmation of long-term support (NLT 031900Z).
   • Domestic Resilience: G7 must actively publish and broadcast the tactical successes (SSO, AD interceptions) to counter the inevitable morale decline following the civilian casualty reports (Kryvyi Rih/Sloviansk).