Situation Report

MILITARY INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (SITREP)

TIME: 031630Z DEC 25 SUBJECT: CONTINUED DUAL-AXIS CRISIS; BALLISTIC STRIKE ON KRYVYI RIH; URGENT MYRNOHRAD VERIFICATION REMAINS PRIORITY.

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1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (SIT-SUM)

A. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain

The operational picture is characterized by sustained pressure across the Southern and Eastern axes, supplemented by deep kinetic strikes designed to degrade UAF operational depth.

1. Southern Axis (Zaporizhzhia): The dual threat remains critical:
   • RF 37th Guards MRB staged for Mechanized Land Drive (MLD) at Zelyony Gai (Stepnohorsk). (UNCHANGED)
   • RF 38th Guards MRB continues exploitation toward Huliaipole (Protocol BRAVO-BLOCK). (CRITICAL)
2. Eastern Axis (Donetsk/Pokrovsk): The immediate tactical focus shifts from Pokrovsk city fighting to the critical flanking threat.
   • Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmiisk): Active engagement confirmed. RF MoD claimed destruction of a UAF drone in this direction, confirming RF forces (likely Tsentr Group) maintain C-UAS capability and kinetic presence near the city.
   • Myrnohrad (Dimytrov): Status of the claimed UAF encirclement remains unverified and constitutes the single most urgent intelligence gap. If confirmed, the T-0515 GLOC is compromised.
3. Operational Depth Strike (NEW): Confirmed ballistic missile strike on Kryvyi Rih (Dnipropetrovsk region) launched from Crimea, demonstrating RF intent and capability to target C2/logistics nodes deep behind the front lines while conventional forces are poised for MLD.
4. Northern Fixation: Continued UAV activity (Bohodukhiv, Sumy/Poltava) confirms RF maintains fixation/recon pressure on UAF reserves in the North/Northeast.

B. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations

The active Geomagnetic Storm is ongoing. RF C2 resilience, as demonstrated by previous successful loitering munition engagements during the storm, is confirmed. UAF must assume RF will operate through environmental interference effectively.

C. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

The ballistic strike on Kryvyi Rih requires immediate damage assessment and reinforcement of local air defense. Strategic reserves are now under simultaneous kinetic, flanking (Myrnohrad), and MLD pressure (Stepnohorsk). UAF command must prioritize verification of the Myrnohrad situation above all non-kinetic tasks.

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2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (THREAT-ASSESS)

A. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action

RF intent is to achieve synchronized operational collapse on the Eastern and Southern fronts while employing deep strikes to prevent cohesive UAF C2 response.

• Ballistic Capability (Fact): Confirmed use of high-speed ballistic missiles (Iskander or Kinzhal variant) targeting Kryvyi Rih (a key logistical and industrial hub). This demonstrates the ability to strike key operational rear areas at short notice.
• Technological Focus (Judgment - HIGH CONFIDENCE): RF propaganda highlights the recruitment of specialized drone operators for the "Rubikon" center. This confirms a concerted effort to scale up technologically advanced warfare (FPV/precision strike) to support ground maneuvers.
• C-UAS Adaptation (Fact): Confirmed destruction of a UAF "Darts" drone near Pokrovsk validates RF claims of effective short-range Counter-UAS defenses being deployed rapidly to contested urban environments.

B. Logistics and Sustainment Status

The 260th GRAU Arsenal Score remains at 26.12 (CRITICAL). Despite the UAF deep fuel strikes, ammunition supply remains robust enough to support the planned triple-axis synchronized offensive.

C. Command and Control Effectiveness

RF C2 remains effective, capable of synchronizing deep ballistic strikes (Kryvyi Rih) with simultaneous conventional maneuver threats (Stepnohorsk, Myrnohrad), indicating sustained operational coordination.

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3. FRIENDLY FORCES (BLUE-FORCE)

A. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness

UAF readiness remains high, but reserves are critically stretched. The focus must be on maintaining C2 redundancy and rapid decision-making within the next 3 hours to prevent the Myrnohrad threat from realizing the MDCOA.

B. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks

• Setback (Kinetic/Infrastructure): Confirmed ballistic strike on Kryvyi Rih. Ukrenergo confirmation of continued widespread power disruptions for tomorrow.
• Setback (Diplomatic): RF IO is successfully exploiting the loss of a Sea Baby drone to Romanian forces to generate significant diplomatic friction and distrust among regional partners.
• Success (Diplomatic/Financial): US invite to the Ukrainian delegation and the confirmed $1 billion commitment from five PURL partners. Judicial success in sentencing Azarov counters internal RF narratives of impunity.

C. Resource Requirements and Constraints

The immediate constraint is the time required for ISR to verify the Myrnohrad threat. Any delay in verification increases the probability of a catastrophic collapse of the T-0515 GLOC. Air defense resources are stretched by the Kryvyi Rih strike response.

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4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain)

A. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns

RF IO strategy focuses on driving internal friction (moral damage from blackouts and salary non-increase) and external friction (NATO/Ukraine relationship sabotage).

• Key Vector (Confirmed): Aggressive amplification of the Sea Baby/Romania incident across state and proxy channels to damage UAF credibility and hinder Black Sea cooperation.
• Domestic Focus (Confirmed): Exploitation of the confirmed future power outages to undermine government competence and societal morale.

B. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors

Morale is under duress due to the triple threat of kinetic strikes on civilian centers (Kryvyi Rih), confirmation of future energy blackouts, and the ongoing domestic political debate (salary issues). Leadership must rapidly address these concerns with transparent and actionable communication.

C. International Support and Diplomatic Developments

International support is robust, confirmed by the $1 billion defense aid pledge and high-level diplomatic invitations. However, the Sea Baby incident risks becoming a strategic liability if not contained immediately through proactive diplomatic engagement with Romania/NATO.

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5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future Operations)

A. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA)

MLCOA: Synchronization of Eastern Flank and Southern MLD, supported by Deep Fires. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

1. Deep Strike Follow-up: RF conducts limited, high-value targeting using precision strike assets (ballistic/loitering) against C2, logistic, or repair facilities in the operational rear (e.g., Kryvyi Rih, Dnipro, or Pavlohrad GLOCs) to sustain disruption preceding the main ground effort. (NLT 031730Z).
2. Myrnohrad Verification/Exploitation: RF utilizes the uncertainty created by the Myrnohrad claim to force UAF reserve commitment. If the encirclement is confirmed, RF attempts to cut the T-0515 GLOC.
3. Stepnohorsk MLD: RF 37th GMRB initiates the mechanized assault at Stepnohorsk, timed for peak UAF confusion and resource strain (NLT 031900Z DEC 25).

• CRITICAL DECISION WINDOW: 90 minutes (until 031800Z) for Myrnohrad verification.

B. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA)

MDCOA: Eastern Operational Collapse Leading to Strategic Retreat. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

1. The Myrnohrad encirclement is confirmed, trapping a substantial UAF formation (MDCOA-1).
2. RF simultaneously achieves a decisive breakthrough at Stepnohorsk (MDCOA-2).
3. The combined kinetic and psychological pressure leads to local command paralysis, forcing a widespread, unplanned retreat from the eastern Donetsk region toward the Dnipro River line to preserve operational integrity.

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6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS AND COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS (CCIR)

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7. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS (ACTION-INTEL)

1. Reserve Allocation and Verification (IMMEDIATE - J3/J5):

   • Focus Myrnohrad: All available short-term ISR capacity must be dedicated to CR Priority 1 until 031800Z. No kinetic engagement orders should be issued for the Myrnohrad sector until verification is received.
   • Execute Pre-Positioning: J5 must immediately issue preparatory orders for the Protocol CHARLIE-FLANK reserve package to move to a hidden staging area west of Pokrovsk (within 30 km radius) to prepare for rapid GLOC defense if Myrnohrad is confirmed.
   • Air Defense Reinforcement: J3/J6 to establish immediate reinforcement of C2 nodes and critical repair facilities in the Kryvyi Rih region with short-range air defense (SHORAD) assets, anticipating RF follow-on strikes.

2. Strategic Communications and Diplomatic Countermeasure (IMMEDIATE - NCA/J7):

   • De-escalate Romania: J7 must initiate a high-level, restricted channel briefing with the Romanian Ministry of National Defense within 30 minutes to coordinate an official, joint statement confirming the Sea Baby incident was an unfortunate accident and reinforcing NATO-Ukraine security cooperation protocols. This denies RF IO exploitation.
   • Address Domestic Morale: NCA/G7 must combine the positive diplomatic news ($1B aid, US invite) with official acknowledgement of the hardships caused by the Kryvyi Rih strike and future blackouts, while reiterating commitment to troop welfare (salary follow-up).

3. Targeting and EW (URGENT - J2/J6):

   • Counter-Adaptation: Given RF's C-UAS success near Pokrovsk and focus on advanced robotics, UAF forces utilizing ground and aerial UGVs must implement dynamic frequency hopping and mission pre-programming to reduce reliance on vulnerable real-time C2 links.
   • Identify Deep Strike Origin: J2 to use BDA (CR Priority 3) to identify the specific missile type and launch area to refine future AD pre-positioning and deep strike targeting priorities.