Situation Report

MILITARY INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (SITREP)

TIME: 031500Z DEC 25 SUBJECT: RF KAB Saturation Phase Continues on ZAPORIZHZHIA AXIS; UAF Deep Logistics Interdiction Confirmed.

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1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (SIT-SUM)

A. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain

The primary RF Main Effort (ME) is kinetic preparation for the Mechanized Land Drive (MLD) targeting Stepnohorsk along the Zaporizhzhia Operational Axis.

• Zaporizhzhia Immediate AO: Confirmed continuation of KAB (Guided Aerial Bomb) strikes into the Zaporizhzhia Raion (031453Z), signaling the final aerial softening phase ahead of the ground assault. This confirms RF tactical air dominance facilitated by previous Mobile Fire Group (MOG) suppression. (HIGH CONFIDENCE FACT)
• Northern Operational Reserve Fixation: The ZSU confirms that RF units have established a "small zone of control" between Vovchansk and Kupiansk in Kharkiv Oblast. This localized advance indicates a persistent RF secondary effort intended to fix UAF Northern reserves and prevent their redeployment south. (HIGH CONFIDENCE FACT)
• Logistics Depth: UAF deep strikes successfully targeted and destroyed three diesel fuel reservoirs in Tambov Oblast (031436Z). This degrades RF strategic fuel supply routes feeding the Southern axis. (HIGH CONFIDENCE FACT)

B. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations

The previously forecasted geomagnetic storm remains a critical constraint. RF may be timing the ground assault to either exploit or avoid the predicted period of peak GPS/SATCOM interference.

C. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

UAF is engaging in active defense, focusing resources on deep kinetic strikes while managing tactical adaptation against RF technological threats (e.g., Gerbera/Kuryer UGVs). The RF Vostok Group (37th Guards MRB) remains staged.

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2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (THREAT-ASSESS)

A. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action

RF Intent remains achieving a decisive breakthrough at Stepnohorsk NLT 031900Z DEC 25, followed by diplomatic coercion.

• Logistical Vulnerability (Immediate): The confirmed destruction of three fuel reservoirs in Tambov increases immediate logistics pressure on the RF Vostok Group. While not mission-critical immediately, sustained fuel supply will become an issue for breakthrough exploitation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE JUDGMENT)
• Personnel Sustainment Strategy (NEW): RF has activated significant financial incentives (Moscow 1.9M RUB payout) and long-term reintegration programs (free professional education) for contracted military personnel. This indicates strategic planning for high attrition rates or an institutional commitment to prolonged conflict sustainment. (HIGH CONFIDENCE FACT)
• Technological Focus (NEW): RF internal media promoted the "Muravey" passive exoskeleton. This signals an ongoing doctrinal focus on optimizing soldier load capacity and endurance for potential dismounted urban or complex terrain fighting following the armor breach. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE JUDGMENT)

B. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations

The RF tactical plan remains consistent: KAB saturation until optimal breach conditions, followed by MLD. The observed localized success on the Kharkiv axis is the primary tactical adaptation aimed at fixing UAF reserves.

C. Logistics and Sustainment Status

• Critical Dependency: The 260th Central Rocket Artillery Base (SAR Score 29.50) is now the single most critical identified logistics node, serving as the main repository for ammunition needed for the Stepnohorsk assault, while simultaneously managing fuel route disruptions caused by the Tambov strike.

D. Command and Control Effectiveness

RF C2 remains robust, coordinating multi-domain effects from deep logistics strikes against UAF GLOCs (Pavlohrad UAVs - previous report) to political IO synchronicity (exploiting the UAF language law).

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3. FRIENDLY FORCES (BLUE-FORCE)

A. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness

UAF forces are currently demonstrating high resilience but face increasing pressure on the Kharkiv axis simultaneous with the main effort preparation in Zaporizhzhia.

• Administrative Modernization (NEW): The formal launch of the ZSU digital "Budget" system is a major step toward standardizing financial planning and expenditure tracking. This administrative transparency is critical for maintaining confidence among NATO partners, especially given current RF IO campaigns focusing on alleged financial instability. (HIGH CONFIDENCE FACT)
• Counter-Intelligence Success: The SBU successfully convicted a collaborator who guided RF attacks in Sumy Oblast, providing a crucial domestic morale boost countering RF corruption narratives. (HIGH CONFIDENCE FACT)

B. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks

• Success: Strategic success in degrading RF deep logistics (Tambov strikes).
• Setback: Continued exposure to KAB strikes in Zaporizhzhia Raion and the localized RF gain between Vovchansk and Kupiansk, which drains reserve capacity.

C. Resource Requirements and Constraints

The strategic requirement for enhanced Mobile Air Defense (MOG) capability remains the primary constraint due to the validated "Gerbera" threat.

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4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain)

A. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns

RF IO immediately seized upon the Rada's passage of the law excluding the Russian language from European Charter protection.

• Vector 1: Cultural Conflict: RF assets (TASS, Два майора, Военкор Котенок) used the language law within minutes to frame the conflict as an existential struggle against "Kyiv Nazis" and the "Russian language," aiming to solidify domestic support and radicalize occupied territories. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Vector 2: Political Instability: RF media amplification of Western analyst opinions claiming Zelensky's political career is "under threat" due to corruption and military failures is designed to undermine the UAF diplomatic delegation meeting with US proxies (Dec 3rd). (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

B. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors

UAF leadership must proactively use the confirmed Tambov strike success and the launch of the "Budget" transparency system to counter the RF narrative of political fracture and financial instability.

C. International Support and Diplomatic Developments

The confirmed deep strike capability provides kinetic leverage for the Dec 3rd US proxy meeting, demonstrating UAF capacity to impose costs deep in RF territory, mitigating the negative optics created by RF IO and the alleged US aid suspension rumor (per previous report).

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5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future Operations)

A. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA)

MLCOA: Decisive Ground Assault (MLD) Following KAB Saturation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

1. Aerial Final Preparation: RF continues intensive KAB strikes on UAF forward positions in the Stepnohorsk AO, maximizing impact until the point of commitment.
2. MLD Initiation: RF Vostok Group (37th Guards MRB) initiates the full-scale mechanized assault on Stepnohorsk, utilizing "Kuryer" UGVs to breach minefields, timed for the conclusion of the diplomatic meeting or immediately following the passage of the geomagnetic storm's peak interference.
3. Feint/Fix: Continued pressure on the Vovchansk-Kupiansk line (Kharkiv) to fix UAF reserves.

• TIMELINE: MLD initiation NLT 031900Z DEC 25. (Unchanged, pending confirmation of final RF readiness in Zelyony Gai).

B. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA)

MDCOA: Kinetic Decapitation Strike. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

RF exploits the MOG vacuum and the confirmed presence of KAB-delivery platforms to launch a synchronized high-speed missile strike (Iskander/Kinzhal) aimed at 5th Assault Brigade forward C2 nodes located just outside the KAB range fan, coupled with saturation fire on primary reserve routes. This aims to create immediate tactical paralysis ahead of the ground breakthrough.

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6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS AND COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS (CCIR)

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7. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS (ACTION-INTEL)

1. Kinetic Interdiction (IMMEDIATE - J3/JFS): Immediately update Target Package 007-D (Deep Strike) to prioritize alternate fuel staging depots and rail-tanker transshipment points near Rostov or Crimea logistics hubs, capitalizing on the temporary degradation caused by the Tambov reservoir losses.
2. Air Defense Posture (IMMEDIATE - J3/5th Assault Brigade): Given the confirmed KAB continuation, 5th Assault Brigade MUST execute maximum dispersion of personnel and light assets. Utilize decoy systems (MGS) extensively to confuse KAB targeting, and enforce strict electronic silence (EMCON) until the projected MLD initiation.
3. Reserve Management (URGENT - J3/J5): Given RF success in fixing forces on the Vovchansk-Kupiansk line, assess the minimum required force package for the Northern axis. Reaffirm that no further reserves should be drawn North; prioritize the defense of Stepnohorsk by reinforcing anti-armor and counter-mobility barriers.
4. Strategic Communication (IMMEDIATE - NCA/J7): Issue a coordinated public statement immediately (NLT 031630Z DEC 25) that links the confirmed Tambov strike with the successful launch of the "Budget" transparency system. This connects UAF operational success with institutional reform, directly countering the RF financial instability and political fracture narratives.