Situation Report

MILITARY INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (SITREP)

TIME: 031445Z DEC 25 SUBJECT: Escalation of RF Aerial Softening on Zaporizhzhia Axis and Confirmation of UAF Deep Strike Capability

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1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (SIT-SUM)

A. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain

The RF Main Effort remains the Zaporizhzhia Operational Axis, targeting Stepnohorsk. Current kinetic activity suggests an intensification of the preparatory phase, characterized by continuous aerial strikes.

• Zaporizhzhia Immediate AO: Renewed air raid alerts and confirmed KAB (Guided Aerial Bomb) strikes on Zaporizhzhia (14:25Z) confirm RF tactical aviation dominance over the operational area due to continued MOG suppression. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Operational Depth/GLOCs: Persistent hostile UAV activity is reported moving toward Pavlohrad, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (14:31Z), attempting to interdict the main logistical lines of communication (GLOCs) supporting the UAF defense at Stepnohorsk. (HIGH CONFIDENCE FACT)

B. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations

The previously forecasted geomagnetic storm (magnetic wave) remains a critical environmental factor.

• Impact Assessment: The storm window may be contributing to the delay of the large-scale mechanized ground drive (MLD). Both sides are likely observing C2 performance. RF may be delaying the kinetic push until the storm window passes, or conversely, attempting to exploit predicted low-fidelity GPS/SATCOM periods for the initial breach. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE JUDGMENT)

C. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

UAF is actively engaging the deep strike threat and demonstrating defensive adaptation at the tactical edge.

• UAF General Staff confirms successful deep strike interdiction against the RF rear (Tambov). (HIGH CONFIDENCE FACT)
• UAF forces are successfully adapting counter-UAV doctrine, specifically dedicating personnel for physical observation and defense against RF reconnaissance and strike drones, supporting the previous recommendation for hardened protocols (HARP-1). (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FACT)
• The RF Vostok Group (37th Guards MRB) remains staged for the MLD, with aerial assets now actively softening the defense line.

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2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (THREAT-ASSESS)

A. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action

RF Intent remains achieving a decisive breakthrough at Stepnohorsk, leveraging the confirmed MOG vulnerability and synchronizing success with diplomatic coercion efforts.

• Technological Standardization: RF MoD reports confirming the training of Unmanned Systems Forces within the Sever Group (Northern Axis) engineering brigades. This indicates that advanced UGV/UAV technology (like "Kuryer" and "Gerbera") is not localized to the current main effort but is being standardized and disseminated across operational theaters. (HIGH CONFIDENCE JUDGMENT)
• Delayed MLD Analysis: The delay in the ground assault (projected NLT 1700Z in previous report) suggests RF Command is ensuring the maximum operational conditions are met: either waiting for the geomagnetic storm effects to pass, or ensuring KAB saturation achieves desired effects before committing armor.

B. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations

The primary tactical shift is the move from pre-assault preparatory fires to sustained aerial softening using precision-guided munitions (KABs) and dedicated logistical interdiction (Pavlohrad UAVs).

C. Logistics and Sustainment Status

UAF deep strikes pose a growing threat to RF logistics depth.

• Logistics Degradation (UAF Success): Confirmed destruction of three diesel fuel reservoirs at the Tambov Oblast oil depot significantly degrades RF deep logistical resiliency and requires immediate adaptation of fuel supply routes to the Southern axis. (HIGH CONFIDENCE FACT)
• Counter-UAF Interdiction: Continued high-density UAV deployment toward key logistics nodes (Pavlohrad) confirms RF recognition of these nodes as critical targets.

D. Command and Control Effectiveness

RF C2 remains effective, synchronizing deep strikes against UAF logistics (Pavlohrad) with the primary kinetic effort (Stepnohorsk) and linking judicial/propaganda efforts (Akunin sentencing) to the overall coercion strategy.

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3. FRIENDLY FORCES (BLUE-FORCE)

A. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness

UAF forces are demonstrating defensive resilience, successfully countering RF UAV saturation (34 confirmed downings).

• Tactical Adaptation: The formal integration of dedicated "covering" personnel for UAV groups (as reported by UAF sources) is a necessary doctrinal adaptation protecting highly valuable ISR/Strike assets and confirming the effectiveness of decentralized defensive measures. (HIGH CONFIDENCE JUDGMENT)

B. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks

• Success: Strategic success in degrading RF deep logistics (Tambov strikes).
• Setback: Continued exposure of Zaporizhzhia units to KAB attacks due to the persistent MOG suppression threat.

C. Resource Requirements and Constraints

The IO focus on the $19 Billion budget deficit emphasizes the critical dependency on external financial support to execute the massive 2026 defense budget. This political vulnerability is currently being exploited by the adversary.

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4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain)

A. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns

RF IO is actively using four main vectors:

1. Financial Instability (Primary): Mass amplification of Ukraine's budget deficit ($19B/$45B) to undermine international confidence and domestic morale.
2. Internal Instability (Secondary): Amplification of internal political tensions (Yermak NSDC status ambiguity, NABU detective release) to portray Kyiv as fractured.
3. Deterrence (Internal RF): Use of high-profile legal actions (Akunin 15-year sentence) to demonstrate state resolve and suppress domestic dissent, mirroring the linkage between battlefield success and political stability.

B. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors

Public messaging from UAF leaders must immediately counter the financial instability narrative amplified by RF sources. The release of the NABU detective adds fuel to RF narratives regarding corruption/rule of law, requiring immediate government transparency.

C. International Support and Diplomatic Developments

The confirmed UAF deep strike capability (Tambov) provides tangible kinetic leverage for the UAF delegation currently meeting with US proxies (Dec 3rd), demonstrating Ukraine's continued offensive potential despite frontline pressures.

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5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future Operations)

A. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA)

MLCOA: Decisive Ground Assault (MLD) Following KAB Saturation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

1. Aerial Final Preparation: RF continues intensive KAB strikes on UAF forward positions in the Stepnohorsk AO throughout the late afternoon (031400Z - 031700Z DEC 25).
2. MLD Initiation: RF Vostok Group (37th Guards MRB) initiates the full-scale mechanized assault on Stepnohorsk, utilizing "Kuryer" UGVs to breach minefields, timed for the conclusion of the diplomatic meeting or immediately following the expected passage of the geomagnetic storm's peak interference period.
3. Diversion: Continued aggressive UAV reconnaissance and feigned fixing maneuvers toward Pavlohrad and Huliaipole to prevent UAF reserve redeployment.

• TIMELINE: MLD initiation NLT 031900Z DEC 25. (Adjusted one hour later than the previous estimate, acknowledging the ongoing KAB phase and potential weather/diplomatic synchronization refinement.)

B. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA)

MDCOA: Kinetic Decapitation Strike. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

RF exploits the MOG vacuum and the confirmed presence of KAB-delivery platforms to launch a synchronized high-speed missile strike (Iskander/Kinzhal) aimed at 5th Assault Brigade forward C2 nodes located just outside the KAB range fan, coupled with saturation fire on primary reserve routes. This aims to create immediate tactical paralysis ahead of the ground breakthrough.

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6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS AND COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS (CCIR)

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7. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS (ACTION-INTEL)

1. Air Defense Posture (IMMEDIATE - J3/J6): Given the sustained KAB attacks and confirmed MOG suppression, dedicated AD systems (e.g., MANPADS, short-range AD vehicle systems) attached to the 5th Assault Brigade must maintain maximum dispersion and readiness. Prioritize shoot-and-scoot doctrine to avoid immediate counter-battery/counter-AD targeting.
2. Target Package Update (IMMEDIATE - J2/J3): The successful Tambov strike validates UAF deep strike capability. Immediately refine target selection packages to prioritize rail-tanker staging areas near Rostov/Crimea logistics hubs to maximize the logistical impact of the Tambov damage.
3. Counter-UAV Tasking (IMMEDIATE - J3): Task specialized counter-UAV teams (as featured in UAF communications) toward the confirmed UAV traffic lanes targeting the Pavlohrad GLOCs. Use these teams to intercept the current reconnaissance/loitering munitions to protect reserve movement.
4. Strategic Communication (IMMEDIATE - NCA/J7): Issue a public statement immediately detailing the success of the Tambov strike, linking it explicitly to UAF long-term capabilities. This must be used to counter the RF financial deficit narrative amplified today, demonstrating operational strength regardless of external political fluctuations.