Situation Report

INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (ISR) - CRITICAL POST-BREACH ASSESSMENT // ZAPORIZHZHIA AXIS

TIME: 031205Z DEC 2025 OPERATION: MLD EXECUTION PHASE / STEPNOHORSK FOCUS: IMMEDIATE KINETIC RESPONSE TO MECHANIZED BREACH AND STRATEGIC COUNTER-IO FOR AID STABILITY

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1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (Current Operational Picture)

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain

The operational situation is characterized by the initiation of the predicted RF Main Effort Land Drive (MLD) at Stepnohorsk (H-Hour: 1200Z).

• Zaporizhzhia Axis (Stepnohorsk): The RF Vostok Group is confirmed to be executing the assault. The RF Ministry of Defence (MoD) claims a tactical success by Vostok Group forces in the Dobropolye area (031142Z). Dobropolye is geographically critical, situated immediately east of Stepnohorsk, providing a fortified staging and fire support base for the 37th Guards MRB MLD exploitation force. (FACT: RF claim. JUDGMENT: Supports MLCOA confirmation.)
• Huliaipole Flank: RF aviation is sustaining heavy Guided Aerial Bomb (KAB) strikes across the region (Huliaipole, Dobropillya, Nove Zaporizhzhya) (031146Z), focused on disrupting UAF reserve maneuvers towards Phase Line BRAVO.
• Pokrovsk Direction: Heavy fighting persists. UAF General Staff (GS) reports intense clashes (031146Z) while simultaneously and successfully denying RF claims of complete seizure (031136Z, 031152Z). Low visibility (fog) is confirmed in this sector, complicating UAF air reconnaissance (031202Z).

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors

Localized low visibility (fog/poor weather) is confirmed in the Donetsk (Pokrovsk) sector (031202Z). This heavily favors RF mechanized maneuver and conventional fire (TOS) while severely degrading UAF tactical ISR and FPV/MOG drone effectiveness.

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

The 37th Guards MRB MLD is now active. UAF forces are transitioning from pre-emptive fires to counter-penetration operations. RF forces continue saturation fires near Vilcha (031135Z), fixing UAF elements northeast of the main effort.

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2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action

RF Intent is confirmed: Achieve operational penetration in the Zaporizhzhia Axis, leveraging kinetic success and strategic IO synchronization.

• RF Tactical Adaptation (Counter-MOG/ISR): RF specialized PVO units ("Special Forces PVO") are credibly documented conducting night-time engagement of aerial targets (031134Z), reinforcing the previous assessment of targeted anti-MOG capabilities (Gerbera doctrine). This threat is amplified by current weather conditions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Technological Dependency/Vulnerability: A key RF military source acknowledges heavy reliance on Chinese components (drones, EW, radar) for military needs and notes that specific, customized military purchases are rapidly mirrored and sold to Ukraine (031200Z). This confirms RF technological dependency but does not impede the current MLD. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
• IO Synchronization: The Vostok Group's claimed success at Dobropolye (031142Z) is immediately amplified by MoD channels, aligning kinetic achievement with the cognitive objective of demoralizing UAF command. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations

The immediate tactical change is the transition from staging to active assault execution by the Vostok Group, centered around Stepnohorsk, supported by the likely successful flanking maneuver near Dobropillya.

2.3. Command and Control Effectiveness

RF strategic C2 remains effective, coordinating high-level domestic political messaging (corruption arrests, 031200Z) and amplifying international friction (EU aid funding) to coincide with the kinetic MLD initiation. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

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3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking)

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness

UAF forces are highly engaged across all major axes, maintaining defensive lines and effective localized counter-messaging regarding Pokrovsk.

• Key Intelligence Success (GUR): GUR reports that 13 out of 49 component manufacturers for the RF Iskander ballistic missile system are currently not under sanctions by any coalition country (031144Z). This identifies a critical, immediate strategic vulnerability for the RF industrial base. (FACT: HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Internal Communications: UAF official channels (GS, Air Force) are providing rapid, detailed, and consistent operational updates regarding assaults and contested areas (031146Z, 031152Z), effectively countering panic narratives.

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks

• Success (IO): Effective, high-speed denial of the Pokrovsk collapse narrative (031136Z, 031152Z).
• Setback (ISR/Counter-MOG): Adverse weather and confirmed RF specialized anti-drone operations are currently degrading UAF MOG/UAV effectiveness, creating an urgent air defense gap at the tactical edge.

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints

CRITICAL CONSTRAINT: Immediate Fire Support. Remaining precision fires must be allocated now to blunt the 37th GMRB penetration west of Dobropillya. STRATEGIC REQUIREMENT: Immediate diplomatic pressure is required to close the 13 identified Iskander component sanctions loopholes.

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4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain)

4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns

RF IO is actively using the Stepnohorsk MLD launch to amplify narratives of Western collapse and futility.

• Targeted Amplification of EU Discord: TASS and affiliated channels are exploiting the Belgian/EU funding mechanism dispute (031145Z) and amplifying Hungarian threats to sue the EU over energy sanctions (031143Z). This is explicitly framed as the EU being "paralyzed by corruption" (031141Z, 031148Z) to undermine the strategic political will to continue aid. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Domestic Messaging: High-profile internal corruption arrests (Voronovsky, 031200Z) are used to project stability and capability of the RF state apparatus while the war effort intensifies.

4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors

Domestic morale is under stress due to the intensity of kinetic operations, but is buttressed by transparency efforts and essential public services (Kyiv veteran support, budget review).

4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments

The diplomatic fissure over asset expropriation remains the immediate weakness in the strategic rear. The GUR intelligence on Iskander components presents a clear opportunity to redirect strategic focus internationally toward the inadequacy of existing sanctions.

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5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future Operations)

The MLD launch (1200Z) is confirmed active.

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA) (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

1. Breach and Containment (NLT 031400Z): The 37th GMRB achieves a tactical breach (3-5 km depth) near Stepnohorsk using a combination of Kuryer UGVs for minefield clearing and massive KAB/TOS saturation. RF forces will prioritize the destruction of Phase Line BRAVO components and attempt to cut off defensive units retreating from Stepnohorsk.
2. IO Coercion (NLT 031500Z): RF will issue a public statement via high-level diplomatic channels linking the "collapse" in Zaporizhzhia to the EU's paralysis over aid funding, pressuring Western partners to decouple from Ukraine.

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA) (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

The combination of poor visibility (fog), confirmed RF specialized counter-MOG tactics, and the MLD momentum allows the 37th GMRB to bypass Stepnohorsk rapidly. The penetration is exploited by a second echelon (e.g., 60th MRB), achieving a 20-30 km deep breakthrough toward the Dnipro-facing operational logistics hubs NLT 031800Z, forcing the premature commitment and attrition of the UAF strategic reserve.

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points

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ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS

The immediate priority is kinetic interdiction of the Stepnohorsk penetration (DP-1) and simultaneous strategic messaging to stabilize international support (URGENT 3).