Situation Report

INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (ISR) - CRITICAL UPDATE // ZAPORIZHZHIA AXIS: T-25 MINUTES

TIME: 031135Z DEC 2025 OPERATION: MLD THRESHOLD / STEPNOHORSK BREACH IMMINENT FOCUS: EXECUTION OF EMERGENCY FIRE PLANS AND STRATEGIC COUNTER-IO FOR POLITICAL STABILITY

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1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (Current Operational Picture)

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain

The operational geometry remains critically unfavorable. RF forces are positioned for the Stepnohorsk MLD initiation (NLT 1200Z).

• Huliaipole Flank: RF fire and reconnaissance activity is confirmed as highly active on the Huliaipole approaches (031104Z), sustaining pressure on the exposed UAF operational reserve.
• Stepnohorsk MLD Window: Remains fixed NLT 1200Z 03 DEC. All indicators confirm the 37th Guards MRB is in final staging.

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors

Conditions remain optimal for RF mechanized assault and continued exploitation of air superiority (KAB/UAV).

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

UAF reserves are still maneuvering toward Phase Line BRAVO under direct threat of engagement and precision fire. The time available for kinetic interdiction of the 37th GMRB is now less than 30 minutes.

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2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action

RF Intent remains a coordinated operational breakthrough at Stepnohorsk.

• RF Tactical Adaptation (Counter-MOG): RF sources (031133Z) confirm active and successful employment of dedicated teams ("Special Forces PVO") conducting night engagements and counter-UAV/MOG operations. This reinforces the high threat level posed by specialized RF anti-drone and anti-MOG solutions ("Gerbera" doctrine). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Donetsk/Pokrovsk IO Synchronization: RF continues to utilize the loss of Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmiisk) and manufactured reports of UAF collapse at Myrnohrad (031111Z, 031112Z) to fix UAF attention and prevent reallocation of reserves away from the Donetsk axis. This IO effort is designed to maximize cognitive fatigue in UAF High Command during the Zaporizhzhia crisis. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Logistics Status: Critical SAR score of 29.50 suggests the RF Main Effort remains fully fueled and supplied for a multi-day assault.

2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations

No large-scale RF force posture changes observed in the last 60 minutes, indicating commitment to the pre-established 1200Z timeline. RF is prioritizing small-unit specialization for counter-reconnaissance/AD suppression.

2.3. Command and Control Effectiveness

RF C2 remains highly effective in synchronizing kinetic timing with high-impact strategic IO. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

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3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking)

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness

Readiness remains high, but command transparency is stressed.

• Internal Friction: UAF sources (031105Z, 031124Z) are openly criticizing the General Staff for releasing outdated operational maps for the Pokrovsk direction. This indicates internal institutional stress following the major defeat and risk of degrading confidence in official reporting. (FACT: HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Strategic Action: UAF intelligence is credibly reported to have conducted a deep strike sabotage operation against the Druzhba oil pipeline inside Russia on 01 DEC (031122Z). This confirms operational reach and willingness to escalate strategic pressure to relieve frontline kinetic stress.

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks

• Success (IO): Official denial of alleged RF breakthrough near Lyman by the 3rd Army Corps (031112Z, 031124Z) successfully mitigates immediate panic and counters RF information objectives in that sector.
• Setback (Information Vulnerability): The perceived lack of transparent reporting regarding the Pokrovsk situation is a self-inflicted vulnerability that RF IO is currently exploiting.

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints

CRITICAL CONSTRAINT: Time. Less than 25 minutes remain before the predicted MLD launch. Resources must be expended now to maximize effect before the breach.

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4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain)

4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns

The RF IO campaign has transitioned from general skepticism to targeted exploitation of specific, verifiable diplomatic friction points.

• Strategic Aid Fragmentation (CRITICAL THREAT): The EC proposal to allocate €165B in aid to Ukraine (2026-2027) sourced from expropriated Russian assets is explicitly rejected by Belgium (031122Z). This internal EU discord over funding mechanisms is being amplified by RF state media (TASS) to confirm the narrative of "Western fracture," directly undermining strategic resolve at the moment of kinetic crisis. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Myrnohrad Collapse Narrative: RF sources are fabricating critical quotes attributed to UAF soldiers demanding extraction from Myrnohrad due to complete logistical failure (drone-only supply). This aims to force UAF commitment of resources to a collapsing secondary front. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors

Domestic sentiment is supported by stable heating season reports (031114Z) and legal guidance on mobilization rights (031132Z). However, the intensity of RF kinetic operations and the strategic IO targeting Western resolve presents an acute test of strategic endurance.

4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments

• Negative Development: Belgium's public rejection of the expropriation funding mechanism for Ukraine aid creates a diplomatic fissure that RF will immediately exploit.
• RF Internal Digital Control: New domestic initiatives in Russia (Lipetsk MAX messenger mandate, alleged FSB "idiot census") indicate increased Russian state efforts to centralize digital communications and suppress internal dissent, likely in response to increased deep strikes (Druzhba pipeline).

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5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future Operations)

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA) (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

RF adheres strictly to the timeline.

1. Huliaipole Flank (Immediate): 38th/60th MRB will continue aggressive direct fire engagement of UAF reserve elements maneuvering northwest of Huliaipole to maximize attrition and prevent Phase Line BRAVO defensive establishment.
2. Stepnohorsk MLD (1200Z): The 37th MRB launches the coordinated, mechanized breach operation, utilizing Kuryer UGVs and overwhelming aerial/artillery support, focused on achieving the initial penetration point to exploit the exposed flank.

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA) (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

A successful, preemptive RF kinetic strike against the exposed operational reserve formation (Huliaipole flank) causes its material and command failure. Simultaneously, the 37th MRB achieves an unconstrained breach at Stepnohorsk at 1200Z, pushing 20-30km deep NLT 1800Z 03 DEC, potentially capturing a key C2 node or operational supply hub.

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points

The critical kinetic window is the next 25 minutes to execute fire support and delay measures before the MLD.

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ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS

The focus remains on immediate kinetic action to protect the reserves and targeted counter-messaging to stabilize strategic political support.

INTELLIGENCE GAPS & COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS (CR)