Situation Report

INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (ISR) - FLASH UPDATE // ZAPORIZHZHIA AXIS: HIGH-RISK PHASE

TIME: 031130Z DEC 2025 OPERATION: MLD THRESHOLD / HULIAIPOLE FLANK CRITICAL EXPOSURE FOCUS: IMMEDIATE FIRE SUPPORT FOR UAF OPERATIONAL RESERVES AND COUNTER-MLD PREPARATION

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1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (Current Operational Picture)

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain

RF forces are successfully executing the fixing operation on the Huliaipole flank, maximizing the window before the Stepnohorsk Main Land Drive (MLD).

• Huliaipole Approaches: RF sources are actively claiming kinetic operations on the outskirts of Huliaipole (FACT: HIGH CONFIDENCE that RF is claiming this position, corroborated by confirmed 60th OMSBR UAV activity targeting the area at 1033Z). This indicates the operational reserve maneuvering to Phase Line BRAVO is now moving through an actively contested Forward Edge of the Battle Area (FEBA). The logistical arteries supporting Huliaipole are now under direct threat.
• Stepnohorsk MLD Window: Remains fixed NLT 1200Z 03 DEC. All available intelligence indicates the 37th Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade (37 GMRB) is nearing final staging.

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors

No significant change. Conditions remain conducive to high-tempo mechanized assault operations and RF air superiority leverage (KAB/UAV).

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

The UAF operational reserve is maneuvering in a highly exposed position. All efforts must focus on providing immediate suppression and protection (EW/SHORAD) to allow these forces to reach defensive depth. The time available for preparatory counter-fire against the 37 GMRB at Stepnohorsk is now severely constrained (45 minutes).

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2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action

RF Intent is to achieve a critical operational breakthrough at Stepnohorsk by 1) paralyzing the UAF response through the collapse of the Huliaipole flank, and 2) executing the MLD NLT 1200Z.

• RF Tactical Focus: Continued aggressive use of UAVs (confirmed by 60th OMSBR activity and claims of heavy drone destruction by Buryatia-based operators at Kupyansk) to identify UAF assembly areas and C2 nodes.
• Logistics Status: RF logistics remain capable of sustaining both KAB strikes (FAB-1500) and multi-brigade maneuver (38th/60th MRB on flank, 37th MRB main effort). SAR data confirms critical ammunition throughput (260th Central Rocket Artillery Base Score 29.50).
• C2 Effectiveness: RF maintains a high level of operational synchronization, aligning aggressive kinetic operations with high-impact strategic Information Operations (IO).

2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations

None identified in the last 60 minutes, confirming the RF is committed to the established plan focusing on the 1200Z Stepnohorsk deadline.

2.3. Command and Control Effectiveness

HIGH CONFIDENCE. Successful synchronization of 38th/60th MRB maneuver demonstrates effective tactical C2.

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3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking)

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness

The 31st OMMB (Huliaipole) and the 5th Assault Brigade (Stepnohorsk) are at maximum alert. Readiness is high, but vulnerability is critical due to the confirmed exposure of the maneuvering reserve elements. UAF counter-IO efforts are strong (War Crimes focus), but tactical stress is immense.

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks

• Setback: The operational reserve is now confirmed to be maneuvering into or near the immediate fire zone of the 38th/60th MRB elements now on the Huliaipole outskirts. This increases casualties risk and delays defensive establishment at Phase Line BRAVO.
• Success (IO/Legal): Confirmation of the SBU/Prosecutor General Office successfully building a war crimes case against the RF penal system operative ("Doctor Evil," 11:00Z/11:03Z).

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints

CRITICAL CONSTRAINT: Time for kinetic intervention (EF Plan CHARLIE) to cover reserve deployment. REQUIREMENT: Immediate prioritization of all dedicated EW/SHORAD assets (especially mobile assets to counter confirmed 60th OMSBR UAV reconnaissance) to protect the exposed operational reserve GLOCs and assembly areas northwest of Huliaipole.

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4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain)

4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns

RF IO is executing a highly coordinated strategic influence campaign timed to coincide with the MLD:

• Fragmentation Narrative (CRITICAL): TASS (11:01Z) and influential military channels (10:34Z) are amplifying a statement attributed to the Belgian Prime Minister, Bart De Wever, suggesting "no one actually believes in Russia's defeat."
  • Assessment: This statement is highly dangerous, aiming to erode foreign policy consensus and strategic patience in NATO capitals at the exact moment Ukraine faces an operational crisis.
• Victory/Collapse Narrative: RF channels continue to hammer the narrative of Pokrovsk's decisive loss and claimed encirclement/rout of UAF forces near Myrnograd (10:42Z, 10:50Z).

4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors

Domestic morale is buoyed by counter-IO focusing on accountability (War Crimes) and long-term economic stability (steel production plans 2026). However, the intensity of RF kinetic operations and the negative strategic messaging (Belgian PM) present a combined challenge to strategic resilience.

4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments

• Positive Signal: EU agreement on the complete phase-out of Russian gas by the end of 2027 (10:53Z) reinforces long-term punitive measures against the RF economy.
• Immediate Risk: The amplification of the Belgian PM's statement poses an immediate risk to political support ahead of critical decisions regarding NATO replenishment.

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5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future Operations)

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA) (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

RF will maintain maximum pressure on both axes simultaneously:

1. Huliaipole Flank (Now - 1200Z): 38th/60th MRB initiates direct, possibly decentralized, mechanized engagement against the UAF reserve elements maneuvering toward Phase Line BRAVO. The goal is to force the reserves into an unfavorable fighting engagement that delays or prevents their establishment of a cohesive anti-armor defense line.
2. Stepnohorsk MLD (1200Z): 37th MRB launches the coordinated breach operation at the planned time, capitalizing on the fixed and engaged UAF operational reserves further north. This breach will utilize "Kuryer" UGVs and overwhelming artillery/KAB support.

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA) (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

Precision strike assets (e.g., Iskander or FAB-1500) successfully identify and strike the exposed operational reserve formation moving toward Phase Line BRAVO, resulting in massive material losses and command dislocation on the Huliaipole flank. Simultaneously, the 37th MRB achieves an unconstrained breach at Stepnohorsk, creating a 20-30km deep penetration zone NLT 1800Z 03 DEC.

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points

The critical kinetic window is the next 45 minutes to execute fire support and delay measures before the MLD.

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ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS

The focus is now on immediate reactionary fire support and the protection of the maneuvering reserve elements, coupled with urgent strategic counter-messaging.

INTELLIGENCE GAPS & COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS (CR)