Situation Report

INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (ISR) - CRITICAL UPDATE // ZAPORIZHZHIA AXIS

TIME: 031034Z DEC 2025 OPERATION: FLANK CONTAINMENT / STEPNOHORSK MLD PREPARATION FOCUS: IMMEDIATE RF EXPLOITATION OF CHERVONE BREAKTHROUGH

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1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (Current Operational Picture)

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain

RF Vostok Group has consolidated control over Chervone (FACT: HIGH CONFIDENCE), enabling exploitation maneuvers northwest toward Huliaipole. RF sources (TASS) confirm over 12 sq. km secured in the breakthrough area.

• Huliaipole Approaches (Confirmed Threat): RF 60th Separate Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade (60 OMSBR) elements (Vostok Group) are confirmed operating combat UAVs against UAF forward positions in the Huliaipole urban development zone (FACT: HIGH CONFIDENCE, RF video release 1033Z). This indicates the immediate threat has progressed from Chervone exploitation (38th GMRB) to direct fire missions against Huliaipole defenses, likely supporting the maneuver of mechanized forces.
• Stepnohorsk MLD Status: Preparatory fire continues, with the Main Land Drive initiation window NLT 1200Z rapidly approaching.

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors

No significant change. Conditions remain optimal for RF mechanized maneuver and high-altitude KAB launch platforms.

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

The critical decision point (DP-1) to commit reserves (e.g., 82nd DShB elements) to Phase Line BRAVO (NW of Huliaipole) passed at 1030Z. It is highly probable that RF 38th/60th MRB elements are now in direct fire range of UAF logistical arteries supporting the Huliaipole defense, requiring an immediate reassessment of Phase Line BRAVO establishment status.

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2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action

RF Intent remains centered on a highly synchronized dual offensive: fix the UAF operational reserves on the vulnerable Huliaipole flank while executing the decisive breach at Stepnohorsk.

• Tactical Integration: The confirmed presence of the 60th OMSBR (likely supporting the 38th GMRB lead elements) conducting direct UAV fire missions on Huliaipole shows effective, layered tactical C2 integration (FACT: HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• KAB Threat Persistence: RF maintains deep strike capability, evidenced by the use of FAB-1500 guided bombs against UAF PVDs (e.g., Myrnograd) (FACT: HIGH CONFIDENCE). This capability threatens UAF C2, logistics, and reserve assembly areas.

2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations

Unit Confirmation: The 60th OMSBR is now identified as actively engaged in supporting the Huliaipole exploitation, underscoring the depth of RF commitment to this flanking effort. This shifts the threat from a single brigade (38th GMRB) to a potentially complex, multi-brigade maneuver supported by heavy fire.

2.3. Logistics and Sustainment Status

RF logistics are confirmed stable and supporting the dual offensive, evidenced by sustained deep strikes (FAB-1500) and the commitment of multiple heavy MRBs.

2.4. Command and Control Effectiveness

RF C2 effectiveness remains HIGH. They are successfully maintaining kinetic pressure in Zaporizhzhia while simultaneously executing a strategic IO campaign (Peskov on peace talks).

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3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking)

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness

The UAF 31st Separate Mechanized Brigade (31 OMMB) is demonstrating high tactical adaptation in the Zaporizhzhia direction, successfully utilizing unmanned ground vehicles (UGVs) for casualty evacuation (CASEVAC) (FACT: HIGH CONFIDENCE). This UGV deployment mitigates immediate personnel risk but does not resolve the armored/mechanized deficit against the RF penetration force.

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks

• Setback (Operational): The time window for establishing critical anti-armor blocking positions (DP-1) has passed, increasing the operational risk on the Huliaipole flank.
• Success (Tactical Adaptation): Successful UGV CASEVAC by the 31st OMMB.
• Success (Strategic Counter-Strike): GUR confirmation of the successful sabotage attack on the Druzhba oil pipeline in Russia (FACT: HIGH CONFIDENCE). This maintains strategic pressure on RF finances and logistics.

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints

The immediate constraint is time and distance for reserve deployment. If reserves failed to meet the 1030Z deadline, they are now moving into an actively contested area requiring immediate suppressive fire support. Anti-UAV assets must be prioritized for the defense of Phase Line BRAVO assembly areas.

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4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain)

4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns

RF strategy leverages diplomatic ambiguity to create strategic paralysis:

• Hybrid Signaling: Kremlin spokesperson Peskov's denial of rejecting the US peace plan (FACT: HIGH CONFIDENCE) serves to confuse Western policymakers and reinforce the narrative that dialogue is possible, potentially slowing or complicating Western aid decisions.
• Narrative Control: RF IO downplays the strategic value of Pokrovsk loss while framing its capture as proof of UAF inability to stop the offensive.

4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors

Morale is supported by high-level diplomatic engagement and confirmed external aid:

• Counter-Coercion: Ukrainian leadership (Umerov/Gnatov) meeting with European security advisors in Brussels (FACT: HIGH CONFIDENCE) is essential to reinforce Western cohesion against RF coercion.
• Aid Confirmation: Canada's commitment of $200M for US arms procurement (FACT: HIGH CONFIDENCE) directly counters the strategic messaging regarding US aid suspension and supports domestic resilience.

4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments

International support is hardening despite RF attempts at fracturing: The European Commission plans a full ban on Russian oil NLT early 2026, reinforcing long-term punitive measures (FACT: HIGH CONFIDENCE).

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5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future Operations)

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA) (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

RF will exploit the current exposure resulting from the missed 1030Z DP-1 deadline.

1. Huliaipole Penetration: The 38th/60th MRB axis will intensify pressure, focusing mechanized elements or heavy drone/artillery fire to disrupt UAF reserve assembly at Phase Line BRAVO (now critically exposed), aiming to force a full withdrawal from Huliaipole proper.
2. MLD Execution (Stepnohorsk): The MLD on Stepnohorsk initiates NLT 1200Z as planned, capitalizing on fixed UAF reserves. Initial breach attempts will utilize the "Kuryer" UGVs and massed fires, aiming for a rapid exploitation deep into the UAF defense, leveraging the operational shock from the Huliaipole collapse.

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA) (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

RF successfully identifies the assembly area of the delayed UAF operational reserve (tasked to Phase Line BRAVO) and targets it with FAB-1500/precision strike assets. This, combined with a concurrent precision strike on the 5th Assault Brigade C2 node during the 1200Z MLD, achieves operational paralysis and massed vehicle destruction, compelling an emergency operational withdrawal across the entire Zaporizhzhia sector.

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points

The timeline is now governed by the 1200Z MLD initiation.

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ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS

The immediate priority shifts from pre-emptive deployment (DP-1 passed) to emergency fire support and force protection for the now exposed operational reserves en route to Phase Line BRAVO.

INTELLIGENCE GAPS & COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS (CR)