Situation Report

INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (ISR) - ZAPORIZHZHIA AXIS

TIME: 031000Z DEC 2025 OPERATION: FLANK CONTAINMENT // STEPNOHORSK MLD PREPARATION FOCUS: RF EXPLOITATION OF CHERVONE BREAKTHROUGH

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1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (Current Operational Picture)

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain

The RF Vostok Group has successfully secured Chervonoye (also known as Vysokoye) (FACT: HIGH CONFIDENCE). This breakthrough confirms the collapse of the easternmost segment of the Zaporizhzhia defensive belt.

• Chervone Loss: RF sources now explicitly identify the attacking unit as the 38th Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade (GMRB), elements of the 35th Army, which liquidated remaining UAF 102nd Territorial Defense Brigade (TDB) elements.
• Huliaipole Threat: TASS confirms the immediate RF intention to use Chervone as a base of fire and launch point, stating it opens "another road to Huliaipole." This validates the MLCOA of a simultaneous two-pronged attack (Stepnohorsk MLD + Huliaipole Flank Exploitation).
• Aviation Pressure: UAF Air Force confirms new KAB (Guided Aerial Bomb) launches targeting the Zaporizhzhia sector, indicating continued RF control of air space proximate to the front line, maximizing strike efficiency against UAF defenses exposed by the Chervone loss.

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors

No significant change. Conditions remain conducive to RF mechanized movement and close air support.

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

The threat force is confirmed as RF 38th GMRB (35th Army) conducting exploitation maneuvers northwest from Chervone. UAF control is degraded in the immediate Huliaipole southeastern approaches. The next critical defense line is Phase Line BRAVO (NW of Huliaipole), which must be secured by UAF reserves (J-3/J-5 Assessment: High Priority).

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2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action

RF Intent is to fix UAF operational reserves through kinetic pressure on the Huliaipole flank, thereby reducing the UAF's ability to respond effectively to the Stepnohorsk Main Land Drive (MLD) scheduled for NLT 1200Z.

• RF Capabilities: RF is demonstrating high tactical flexibility by committing a named, heavy-lift formation (38th GMRB) to the exploitation phase immediately following the Chervone penetration, confirming pre-planned resource allocation for the dual offensive axis.
• RF Command and Control: RF C2 is executing a highly synchronized operation, integrating ground maneuver (38th GMRB), air support (KAB strikes), and Information Operations (immediate, synchronized state media reporting via TASS/MoD).
• Logistics: Sustained heavy fire (KAB launches) and confirmed commitment of two heavy brigades (37th GMRB Stepnohorsk, 38th GMRB Huliaipole) confirm the Critical SAR status of the 260th Central Rocket Artillery Base.

2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations

New Confirmed Exploitation Unit: Identification of the 38th GMRB as the exploitation force. This is an infantry-heavy, mechanized unit capable of rapid tactical penetration, increasing the urgency of UAF reserve deployment.

2.3. Logistics and Sustainment Status

RF logistics are fully supporting the dual axis offensive. The sustained KAB strikes and the deployment of two separate MRBs underscore massive resource availability.

2.4. Command and Control Effectiveness

RF C2 effectiveness remains HIGH. They are successfully forcing UAF decision-makers to prioritize between containing the flank collapse and preparing for the main frontal assault.

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3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking)

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness

Elements of the UAF 102nd TDB have been confirmed liquidated or forced to withdraw from Chervone. The remainder of the eastern flank defense is now severely degraded and requires immediate reinforcement. The Stepnohorsk defense (5th Assault Brigade) remains under massive preparatory fire and faces the new threat of the 'Kuryer' UGVs and 'Gerbera' anti-MOG munitions.

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks

• Setback (Confirmed): Degradation and loss of UAF positions in Chervone, leading to an immediate operational exposure of Huliaipole.
• Success (Deep Ops): GUR reports successful sabotage of the Druzhba oil pipeline in Russia (FACT: MEDIUM CONFIDENCE, pending kinetic confirmation). This provides a kinetic counter-strike narrative but does not mitigate the immediate tactical threat in Zaporizhzhia.

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints

The operational decision point (DP-1) to commit reserves (e.g., 82nd DShB elements) to Phase Line BRAVO is now critical (NLT 1030Z). Failure to deploy anti-armor blocking positions within the next 30 minutes will transform the flank penetration into a critical operational rout, threatening the rear supply lines of the entire Zaporizhzhia defense.

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4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain)

4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns

RF strategic signaling is focused on coercive diplomacy and narrative control:

• Strategic Signal (Peskov): Kremlin spokesperson Peskov publicly denied rejecting the US peace plan, emphasizing ongoing expert-level talks and the possibility of a presidential call (FACT: HIGH CONFIDENCE). This is a classic hybrid tactic: escalate kinetic action (Stepnohorsk MLD) while maintaining diplomatic off-ramps to encourage UAF strategic paralysis or early concessions.
• Domestic Focus (RF): RF is broadcasting new social benefits for veterans (education) and focusing on labor market stability (welders/seamstresses), indicating efforts to maintain domestic stability and support the war effort long-term.

4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors

UAF leadership is actively engaged in counter-signaling:

• Zelensky/Umerov/Gnatov publicly confirmed key meetings with EU national security advisors in Brussels (FACT: HIGH CONFIDENCE). This reinforces the commitment to Western integration and provides a visual counter to RF diplomatic maneuvers.
• Positive International Funding: Reports that four NATO countries will fund US arms packages directly counter the strategic narrative of US aid suspension and help stabilize domestic morale.

4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments

The UAF diplomatic effort is robust, actively securing political and financial guarantees from European partners, mitigating the strategic vulnerability created by rumored US aid constraints and RF diplomatic coercion. This support is essential for long-term sustainment.

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5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future Operations)

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA) (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

RF will maintain simultaneous pressure across both axes until the Stepnohorsk MLD (37th GMRB) achieves either a breach or significant operational commitment from UAF reserves.

1. Huliaipole Feint/Fix: The 38th GMRB will advance rapidly along the NW exploitation axes from Chervone toward Huliaipole, utilizing KAB support to suppress potential UAF counter-attacks, forcing the J-3 to commit the last available operational reserves.
2. MLD Execution: The MLD on Stepnohorsk initiates NLT 1200Z, employing the "Kuryer" UGVs to breach primary minefields, supported by massed artillery (SAR score 29.50) and utilizing the 'Gerbera' anti-MOG system to ensure AD suppression.

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA) (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

RF succeeds in drawing reserves toward Huliaipole, simultaneously executes the Stepnohorsk breach, and achieves C2 paralysis through a precision strike on the unconfirmed 5th Assault Brigade C2 node. The resulting rout allows RF forces to rapidly sever the central Zaporizhzhia logistics axis, compelling a wider operational withdrawal.

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points

The operational clock is tied to the 1030Z reserve commitment and the 1200Z MLD initiation.

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ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS

The immediate priority has narrowed to stabilizing the Huliaipole flank exploitation by the newly identified 38th GMRB.

INTELLIGENCE GAPS & COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS (CR)