Situation Report

INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (ISR) - ZAPORIZHZHIA AXIS

TIME: 030945Z DEC 2025 OPERATION: FORWARD DEFENSE // SECTOR 1 (ZAPORIZHZHIA) FOCUS: MLD EXECUTION IMMINENT // EASTERN FLANK COLLAPSE

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1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (Current Operational Picture)

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain

The operational geometry has deteriorated rapidly on the eastern flank of the Zaporizhzhia axis. The threat is no longer theoretical fixing maneuver but active exploitation.

• Chervone (CRITICAL LOSS): Multiple Russian sources, including the Ministry of Defense (MoD) and state media (TASS, 09:05Z - 09:10Z), claim the capture and "liberation" of Chervone (also referred to as Vysokoye). Given the synchronization of these claims across independent RF channels and the preceding UAF defense reports, this is assessed as effective RF control or total UAF disengagement from the settlement. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Huliaipole Security: The loss of Chervone directly exposes the southeastern approaches to Huliaipole. UAF positions are now vulnerable to flanking fire and potential encirclement from the south, forcing immediate restructuring of defenses.
• Stepnohorsk MLD: Preparatory activities continue. MLD initiation remains scheduled for NLT 1200Z. The Huliaipole collapse serves as a critical pre-assault maneuver to divert UAF reserves away from the Stepnohorsk main defense line.
• Deep Rear Interdiction: UAF Air Force reports confirm a massive overnight saturation attack (111 UAVs, 60+ Shaheds, 09:20Z), indicating sustained RF capability to conduct simultaneous deep strikes on logistical nodes (e.g., Pavlohrad) and fix UAF AD assets across multiple oblasts.

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors

No change. Conditions remain highly favorable for mechanized maneuver and sustained air support (KAB/UAV).

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

RF Vostok Group units, likely elements of the 37th Guards MRB's flanking force, are confirmed to be operating in the Chervone area. The Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration issued an active alert (🚨УВАГА🚨) at 09:28Z, confirming the heightened kinetic threat to the immediate rear area. UAF units previously tasked with holding the Chervone salient (likely elements of 46th DShB) are engaged in fighting withdrawal or have been ordered to stabilize a fallback line NW of Huliaipole.

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2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action

INTENTION (IMMEDIATE): RF intends to leverage the collapse of the Huliaipole flank to compel UAF High Command to commit critical operational reserves before the Stepnohorsk MLD initiates (1200Z). This forces UAF to fight on two axes with maximum resource constraint.

KEY FINDINGS:

2.2. Logistics and Sustainment Status

RF logistics remain robust, evidenced by the ability to launch over 100 UAVs in a single night and sustain massive artillery staging (as indicated by the 260th Central Rocket Artillery Base SAR spike).

2.3. Command and Control Effectiveness

RF C2 is demonstrating high effectiveness and tactical agility in exploiting the Huliaipole flank. The failure to decisively confirm the relocation status of the 5th Assault Brigade C2 node remains the single greatest vulnerability for UAF.

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3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking)

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness

UAF forces are facing operational decision paralysis if reserves are not committed immediately. Forces on the eastern flank are at maximum kinetic stress. The deployment of a reserve force is now a reactive necessity rather than a pre-emptive measure.

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks

• Setback (Operational): Confirmed loss of Chervone, necessitating immediate establishment of a new defensive phase line northwest of Huliaipole.
• Setback (Deep Operations): The massed UAV strike continues to degrade air defense capability and force expensive use of interceptors.

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints

CRITICAL REQUIREMENT: Rapid deployment of heavy mechanized elements (reserves) to the northwestern vectors radiating from Huliaipole (Phase Line BRAVO) to prevent RF armor exploitation toward the main Zaporizhzhia/Melitopol supply routes. Time for deployment is 1-2 hours before RF exploitation becomes difficult to contain.

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4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain)

4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns

RF Information Operations (IO) are actively amplifying the territorial gain (Chervone/Vovchansk claims) to reinforce the narrative of irreversible defeat and Western abandonment.

• Dmitry Medvedev's aggressive rhetoric targets key EU leaders ("frigid Europe," "insane witches"), serving to delegitimize allied unity and pressure the ongoing diplomatic initiatives involving US proxies (Kushner/Witkoff).
• RF MoD claims of destroying 100,000+ Ukrainian UAVs are clearly exaggerated, designed to demoralize UAF FPV teams and counter the narrative of Ukrainian technological superiority in drone warfare.

4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors

Domestic morale is being cautiously supported by positive international news (UK aid for energy reconstruction) and domestic resilience programs (Ukrzaliznytsia travel program activation). However, the confirmed kinetic losses (Chervone) must be immediately countered with a strong, visible defensive response to prevent public confidence erosion.

4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments

• Positive: The UK pledge of additional funds for energy sector restoration (09:14Z) directly mitigates the impact of confirmed RF deep strikes and acts as a financial counterweight to the ongoing US aid uncertainty.
• Negative: The continued public visibility of US proxies (Kushner/Witkoff) meeting with RF officials, amplified by state media (TASS 09:32Z), is leveraged by RF IO to project strategic legitimacy and perceived leverage over US policy toward the conflict.

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5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future Operations)

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA) (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

RF will execute the main Stepnohorsk MLD as planned NLT 1200Z. Simultaneously, elements of the Vostok Group will exploit the Chervone penetration by pushing reconnaissance and lead armor elements northwest along the primary GLOCs out of Huliaipole.

1. Dual Thrust: 37th Guards MRB initiates the mechanized breach at Stepnohorsk utilizing UGVs and heavy fire support.
2. Operational Exploitation: RF forces securing Chervone establish fire control over Huliaipole and attempt rapid penetration along the exploitation corridor (NW road axes) to force the commitment of UAF reserves (82nd DShB) away from Stepnohorsk, maximizing the chance of MLD success.

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA) (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

RF succeeds in forcing a catastrophic operational rout on the eastern flank due to rapid armor penetration, immediately followed by the execution of a precision deep strike against the unconfirmed C2 location of the 5th Assault Brigade. This causes C2 paralysis at the critical sector level exactly when the MLD hits Stepnohorsk, resulting in a rapid operational retreat and loss of the major Zaporizhzhia defensive belt.

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points

The operational decision window is shrinking rapidly. The delay in committing reserves has already cost the UAF Chervone.

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ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS

The immediate priority is to stabilize the collapsing flank (Huliaipole) while simultaneously hardening the primary Stepnohorsk defense against the 1200Z MLD.

INTELLIGENCE GAPS & COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS (CR)