Sitrep 2025-12-03 03:34:27

MILITARY INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (SITREP 03:35Z)

TIME: 030335Z DEC 25 SUBJECT: STEPNOHORSK AXIS: RF MLCOA DELAYED/FRUSTRATED; MDCOA EXECUTION CONFIRMED (TOS STRIKE NEAR HULIAIPOLE). C2 SURVIVABILITY TEMPORARILY HIGH.

1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (IPB Step 1)

A. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain

The operational focus remains the Stepnohorsk salient (Zaporizhzhia Axis). The kinetic information blackout (CR-1) now exceeds 200 minutes. The anticipated culmination of the RF deep penetration (C2 node destruction) NLT 03:25Z did not materialize, suggesting UAF C2 dispersion protocols (ERP) have temporarily frustrated the enemy’s final targeting phase. The critical operational area has expanded eastward toward Huliaipole, indicating RF is prioritizing the neutralization of UAF staging and reserve forces.

B. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations

Pre-dawn darkness (NLT 05:00Z) continues to favor RF concealed maneuver and FOG drone deployment, though the UAF maintains effective strategic deep strike capability (Tambov strike confirmed).

C. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

The UAF now holds a narrow, temporary temporal advantage due to the enemy’s failure to achieve the predicted operational decapitation strike. However, RF is actively attempting to paralyze UAF reserves.

Factor	Assessment	Confidence	Justification
Stepnohorsk Kinetic Status (CR-1)	Deep Penetration Persists; C2 Strike Delayed. UAF C2 dispersion likely negated immediate precision targeting.	HIGH	Failure to confirm predicted C2 loss by 03:25Z combined with new RF kinetic action elsewhere.
RF Reserve Suppression	MDCOA (Reserve Neutralization) in Execution. RF TOS strike reported near Huliaipole targets UAF staging areas/Logistics Hubs.	HIGH	TASS/MOD claim validated by Dempster-Shafer confirmation of TOS-1A use. Huliaipole is a known UAF staging location northeast of the penetration axis.
UAF Deep Strike Capacity	Operational Pressure Maintained. Successful UAV strike on Tambov oil depot confirms UAF ability to compel RF resource diversion.	HIGH	Confirmed report from Tambov regional governor.

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (IPB Step 2)

A. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action

Intent (Tactical, Immediate): Shift focus from deep C2 precision strike to sequential neutralization of UAF reserve capacity (47th BDE and supporting logistics) using heavy saturation fire assets (TOS-1A, MLRS) in the Huliaipole area. Once reserve movement is stalled or disorganized, RF will resume terminal guidance for the MLCOA precision strike against the dispersed UAF C2. Adaptation (Force Generation): RF continues robust logistics and force generation. The announcement of a new batch of BMP-3 IFVs ensures replacement capacity and provides confidence for follow-on forces exploitation, confirming sustained offensive intent.

B. Logistics and Sustainment Status

RF logistics remain capable of supporting multi-domain deep operations, including high-volume, specialized fire missions (TOS-1A).

C. Command and Control Effectiveness

RF C2 remains effective, quickly transitioning from the primary MLCOA objective (C2 strike) to the MDCOA objective (reserve suppression) upon recognizing the initial target frustration. Synchronization is highly effective, linking the TOS strike claim with IO regarding negotiations.

3. FRIENDLY FORCES (IPB Step 3)

A. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness

Posture: Defensive posture is currently high-risk but resilient. The apparent success of Emergency Relocation Protocols (ERP) is a significant success, buying time to organize a counter-interdiction plan. Readiness: The 47th Mechanized Brigade (committed reserve) is now under imminent threat from specialized saturation fire (TOS). Rapid evasion or hardening protocols must be confirmed for these elements.

B. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks

Success (Strategic): Successful deep strike (Tambov) maintains RF pressure. Success (Tactical): Successful evasion of the critical 03:25Z operational decapitation strike. Setback (Tactical): RF kinetic action against reserve staging areas (Huliaipole/TOS) severely limits UAF freedom of maneuver for counter-penetration.

C. Resource Requirements and Constraints

Critical Constraint: The continued vulnerability of C2 to FOG drones and reserves to TOS requires sustained adherence to EMCON and dispersion protocols. Domestic drone procurement (DOT-Chain Marketplace success) is a long-term positive for tactical resilience but does not solve the immediate anti-armor/C2 defense requirement.

4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (IPB Step 4)

The Information Environment remains structured to maximize strategic coercion concurrent with kinetic action.

A. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns

Kinetic Synchronization (TOS Claim): RF immediately broadcasts the TOS strike on Huliaipole (03:28Z), maximizing the psychological impact on UAF troops and reserve logistics units currently deploying.
Strategic Coercion: TASS continues to circulate US political statements (Rubio, 03:12Z) to reinforce the narrative that the conflict is politically and diplomatically exhausted, thereby undermining NCA resolve.

B. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors

UAF must leverage the confirmed Tambov strike and the success of domestic procurement (DOT-Chain) in its internal messaging to offset the fear induced by the Stepnohorsk breakthrough and the strategic coercion regarding negotiations.

C. International Support and Diplomatic Developments

No immediate change. The diplomatic counter-narrative (dismissing Odesa claim, emphasizing EU support) remains critical.

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (IPB Step 5)

RF forces are now transitioning the climax of the deep operation, focusing on neutralizing the UAF response force before finalizing the deep strike.

COA	Description	Trigger/Timeline	Confidence
MLCOA (Delayed C2 Decapitation)	RF 37th GMRB armor column secures flanks following confirmed reserve suppression (TOS effectiveness), and FOG drone assets successfully re-acquire and strike the relocated/dispersed UAF C2 node (e.g., Command Post Alpha-2). The objective remains organizational paralysis.	Confirmed destruction of high-value UAF C2/Log asset NLT 04:15Z.	HIGH
MDCOA (Saturation Fire Paralyzing Response)	RF mass saturation fire (TOS/MLRS) in the Huliaipole/Reserve Staging Area is sustained, leading to the fragmentation or forced withdrawal of the 47th BDE reserve element. This prevents any effective counter-penetration interdiction.	Confirmed inability of 47th BDE to maneuver or secure staging NLT 03:50Z.	HIGH

6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS AND COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS

The CR-1 information blackout and the confirmation of the TOS strike create immediate, high-priority collection requirements.

Priority	Gap Description	Collection Requirement (CR)	Confidence Assessment
PRIORITY 1 (IMINT/HUMINT)	Status of 47th BDE/Huliaipole Target Area. Confirmation of TOS damage assessment (BDA) and the current posture of UAF reserve forces relative to the saturation fire. (CRITICAL)	CR-27 (NEW/IMMEDIATE): Urgent tactical reconnaissance (UAS) directed at Huliaipole area (5-10km radius) to assess fire effectiveness and locate 47th BDE command elements.	HIGH
PRIORITY 2 (TECHINT/SIGINT)	Deep Zone C2 Re-acquisition. Determine if RF targeting systems have locked onto a new C2 signature, indicating a renewed FOG drone strike is imminent.	CR-25 (UPDATE/HIGH RISK): Continuous, aggressive SIGINT monitoring for burst transmissions or high-band radar activity corresponding to deep-zone targeting platforms (20-35km depth).	MEDIUM
PRIORITY 3 (HUMINT)	RF Armor Interdiction Status. Assessment of the 37th GMRB penetration velocity and status of any existing decentralized ATGM ambush teams (per previous recommendations).	CR-28 (NEW): Require periodic check-ins from forward ATGM/recon teams in the deep interdiction zone (25-30km) reporting specific armor movement or contact.	HIGH

7. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS

UAF must exploit the 40-minute window gained by frustrating the RF precision strike, focusing on reserve survivability and immediate deep interdiction.

RESERVE FORCE SURVIVABILITY (J3 – Operational Command)
- Action: Order IMMEDIATE EVASION AND DISPERSION of all 47th BDE elements and affiliated logistics units previously staged near Huliaipole. Units must relocate NLT 03:45Z, prioritizing movement away from known TOS-1A maximum range sectors.
- Effect: Minimizes casualties from the confirmed MDCOA saturation fire, preserving the reserve force for counter-attack.
DECENTRALIZED INTERDICTION EXECUTION (J3 – Fire Support Coordination)
- Action: Direct surviving, highly mobile Forward Fire Groups (FFG) or ATGM teams to engage the RF deep penetration column immediately, regardless of the lack of centralized SA. Focus on soft-skin logistics vehicles and flanking reconnaissance elements.
- Effect: Capitalizes on the temporary lapse in RF synchronization (while they focus on Huliaipole) to disrupt the 37th GMRB's supply chain and momentum, preventing the final exploitation phase.
C2 EMERGENCY HARDENING (J6 – C4I and J2 – Counter-Intelligence)
- Action: EXECUTE HARDENED SHELTER/UNDERGROUND DISPLACEMENT for all C2 nodes (Alpha-2, Bravo-4) that relocated under ERP. Maintain EMCON Level 2 protocols rigidly. Assume RF FOG drone teams are actively re-acquiring targets.
- Effect: Provides physical defense against the inevitable, delayed MLCOA precision strike.
STRATEGIC COMMUNICATIONS REINFORCEMENT (NCA/J9)
- Action: Immediately publish and amplify the success of the Tambov UAV strike (03:32Z) via all national and international media channels (NLT 03:45Z). Simultaneously, release favorable data on domestic defense procurement (DOT-Chain).
- Effect: Counteracts RF tactical propaganda (TOS strike) and strategic coercion (Rubio statement), maintaining the internal narrative of resilience and sustained pressure.

//END OF SITREP//

Situation Report