Sitrep 2025-12-03 00:34:25

MILITARY INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (SITREP 00:35Z)

TIME: 2025-12-03 00:35Z SUBJECT: STEPNOHORSK MLD EXECUTION – KINETIC STATUS UNCONFIRMED. CRITICAL INTELLIGENCE GAP.

1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (IPB Step 1)

A. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain The Stepnohorsk Salient (Zaporizhzhia Axis) remains the decisive point. Kinetic execution was assumed initiated at 00:00Z (T+35 minutes). The critical terrain is the forward mine belt and the approach corridors leading from the confirmed RF staging area at Zelyony Gai.

B. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations Conditions remain dark and stable, favoring RF mechanized maneuver and infiltration.

C. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures RF Vostok Group's 37th GMRB is postured for assault, or is currently executing a breach operation. UAF 5th Assault Brigade is on maximum alert, defending forward positions.

Factor	Assessment	Confidence	Justification
Stepnohorsk Kinetic Status	UNCONFIRMED CONTACT (CRITICAL GAP)	MEDIUM	No reports of confirmed MLD contact (CR-1) have been received between 00:00Z and 00:35Z. This suggests heavy EW/COMSEC disruption, successful UAF pre-emptive disruption, or an ongoing but unreported tactical penetration.
Northern Fixation Effort	SUSTAINED	HIGH	Confirmed detection of UAV/Shahed moving west from Chernihiv (00:12Z) validates the continued RF strategy to fix UAF AD resources and command workload away from the MLD.
C2 Protection Status	HIGH RISK	HIGH	The silence from the Stepnohorsk sector is highly suggestive of active RF EW measures, increasing the vulnerability to a predicted MDCOA C2 strike.

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (IPB Step 2)

A. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action RF Intent remains rapid penetration of the Stepnohorsk defenses. The current lack of kinetic reporting does not suggest a change in intent, but rather a modification or disruption of the execution timeline.

Adaptation: Delayed or Cold Execution. The absence of confirmed 23:45Z massed artillery (CR-1) and the subsequent 35-minute delay in contact reporting (CR-1 URGENT) suggests one of three possibilities (P):
1. P1 (Good): UAF pre-emptive fires (CR-18) severely disrupted 37th GMRB staging, forcing a tactical delay (e.g., 60-90 minutes).
2. P2 (Bad): RF executed a minimal-prep "Cold Launch" supported by intensive Electronic Warfare (EW) to deny UAF reporting capacity and achieve local communications blackout.
3. P3 (Worst): RF employed a specialized infiltration/breach team (Kuryer UGVs) that has not yet been identified by perimeter defenses due to reduced visibility and sound suppression.

B. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations The primary adaptation observed is the continuous synchronization of deep Information Operations (IO) with the kinetic timeline (P2 assessment). The targeted IO regarding the Kushner family (00:22Z) is highly specific and timely, aimed at strategic distraction concurrent with the MLD launch window.

C. Logistics and Sustainment Status Sustainment capacity remains adequate for high-intensity MLD execution (CRITICAL - 72+ hours).

D. Command and Control Effectiveness RF C2 remains highly disciplined, demonstrated by the continued control and release of strategic IO narratives across multiple channels during the critical operational hour.

3. FRIENDLY FORCES (IPB Step 3)

A. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness The 5th Assault Brigade is presumed to be executing counter-mobility/anti-UGV protocols (as per previous recommendations). The lack of contact confirms that C2 integrity is the current top priority.

B. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks

Success (IO/Strategic): Confirmation of Switzerland easing military export rules (00:15Z) represents a positive strategic development that potentially mitigates the operational impact of rumored US aid suspensions.
Setback (Operational): The critical gap in kinetic reporting (CR-1) suggests an operational success for RF EW or, conversely, a catastrophic failure in UAF forward C2/reporting capabilities.

C. Resource Requirements and Constraints

Redundant Communications: Immediate need for non-RF-dependent, secure communication links between Brigade HQ and forward platoons to confirm CR-1 status.
Counter-EW Assets: Urgent deployment of EW teams to identify and disrupt the source of the suspected Stepnohorsk communications blackout.

4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (IPB Step 4)

A. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns RF IO efforts remain highly coordinated and targeted, focused on both strategic erosion and tactical distraction.

Strategic Erosion: The TASS/Sputnik/Operation Z messages (00:22Z) linking Jared Kushner to Belarus partisans is a complex IO effort intended to: 1) Delegitimize him as an objective diplomat; 2) Appeal to Russian nationalist sentiments; and 3) Introduce political noise into the US domestic environment coincident with the assault. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
Tactical Distraction: Continued use of general news (TASS 00:09Z, 00:22Z) and fixation reports (Chernihiv UAV) to overload UAF analysts and C2 personnel. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

B. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors The Swiss policy shift (00:15Z) provides a valuable counter-narrative against the strategic setback of the canceled Kyiv meeting, allowing UAF to emphasize sustained European commitment.

C. International Support and Diplomatic Developments The potential for Swiss-made military re-exports is a significant development that demands immediate diplomatic follow-up to translate policy changes into tangible materiel support, especially for replenishing AD and artillery stocks. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (IPB Step 5)

The 35-minute delay in confirmed contact shifts the immediate tactical focus to RF EW capability and the MDCOA C2 strike window.

COA	Description	Trigger/Timeline	Confidence
MLCOA (Delayed Execution under EW Cover)	RF Vostok Group initiated the MLD at T+15/T+30 (approx. 00:15Z - 00:30Z) under localized heavy EW. The assault is ongoing, utilizing "Kuryer" UGVs, but reporting is degraded. First confirmed contact will be highly localized and violent.	First confirmed report of heavy armor (T-72/80) engagement or confirmed location of RF EW platform.	HIGH
MDCOA (C2 Decapitation & Breakthrough)	RF exploits the comms blackout and perceived forward chaos to execute the C2 precision strike (Iskander/Kalibr) on 5th Brigade HQs between 00:35Z and 01:00Z. This coincides with a localized, EW-supported breakthrough.	Confirmed track detection of inbound high-speed missiles (CR-16).	HIGH
ALCOA (Significant Attrition/Delay)	UAF pre-emptive fires (CR-18 BDA) successfully caused catastrophic damage to the 37th GMRB assembly. The MLD is aborted or indefinitely delayed due to C2 failures or inability to execute the breach complex.	No kinetic activity reported at Stepnohorsk NLT 01:30Z AND confirmed high-level RF communication showing frustration/reversal.	LOW

6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS AND COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS

The critical requirement is to resolve the kinetic status immediately. The silence is operational data.

Priority	Gap Description	Collection Requirement (CR)	Confidence Assessment
PRIORITY 1 (IMINT/SIGINT)	Confirmation of MLD Initiation and Communication Status. Is the silence due to jamming or absence of threat?	CR-1 (URGENT/PERSISTENT): Use dedicated EW monitoring platforms to geolocate active RF jamming sources in the Stepnohorsk AO. Concurrently, mandate reporting via satellite or redundant fiber links (if available) for first contact. Report status NLT 00:45Z.	HIGH
PRIORITY 2 (TECHINT/AD)	C2 Strike Warning Status. Has the high-alert status yielded any incoming track detections?	CR-16 (Immediate Intercept): Strategic AD assets must confirm NO track detections targeting C2 nodes since 00:00Z. Confirmation of absence is vital for C2 posture decisions.	HIGH
PRIORITY 3 (HUMINT/IO)	RF IO Intent on Kushner/US Policy. Assess the immediate audience response to the targeted IO campaign.	CR-19 (STRATCOM/IO): Monitor and report on the resonance and distribution of the Kushner-Belarus narrative across key Western and domestic channels to preemptively shape UAF counter-narratives.	MEDIUM

7. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS

The focus shifts to resolving the tactical reality and preserving C2 integrity under likely heavy EW.

RESOLVE TACTICAL SILENCE (J3 – 5th Brigade Command)
- Action: Assume heavy RF jamming (P2). Immediately dispatch small, dedicated forward reconnaissance teams (disguised drone operators/snipers) using redundant, hardened communications (SATCOM/fiber) to breach the perceived EW bubble and confirm CR-1 (UGA/armor engagement).
- Effect: Re-establishes battle awareness; informs decision to commit tactical reserves or counter-battery assets.
EXECUTE MDCOA COUNTERMEASURES (J6/J3 – Force Protection)
- Action: Immediate maximum physical hardening and dispersion of 5th Assault Brigade C2 nodes. The MDCOA strike window is now open. Reinforce AD focus on short-range intercept capability (SHORAD) directly protecting HQs. Redundant command authority must be delegated downwards to battalion level immediately.
- Effect: Prevents catastrophic command paralysis if the expected high-speed missile strike materializes during the kinetic vacuum.
EXPLOIT SWISS DIPLOMATIC OPPORTUNITY (NCA/J7)
- Action: Diplomatic channels must immediately contact key partners (Germany, Poland, Czechia) to initiate discussions on the re-export of Swiss-made components held in NATO stocks, specifically prioritizing 155mm artillery shells and critical SHORAD spare parts.
- Effect: Creates a long-term resource buffer against the rumored US aid constraint, improving the sustainment outlook for the spring campaign.

//END OF SITREP//

Situation Report