Sitrep 2025-12-03 00:04:28

MILITARY INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (SITREP 00:00Z)

TIME: 2025-12-03 00:00Z SUBJECT: STEPNOHORSK MLD EXECUTION – PHASE TRANSITION CONFIRMED. T-MINUS 0.

1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (IPB Step 1)

A. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain The Stepnohorsk Salient (Zaporizhzhia Axis) remains the focus. The RF Vostok Group main effort launch window has been reached (NLT 00:00Z). Critical terrain is the forward mine belt shielding the 5th Assault Brigade defenses.

B. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations Night conditions and stable ground remain favorable for RF heavy armor maneuver.

C. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures RF operations have concluded the preparatory phase. Although the predicted 23:45Z massed artillery barrage initiation (CR-1) has not been explicitly confirmed via open sources, all strategic and informational indicators confirm the RF commitment to kinetic execution at 00:00Z. RF continues fixation across other axes:

Donetsk Axis (23:34:58Z): KAB launches reported, likely softening defenses or targeting tactical reserves, preventing redeployment south.
Chernihiv Axis (23:53:37Z): UAV (likely Shahed/recon) detected moving west. Assessed as continued distraction effort to dissipate Northern AD resources and maximize C2 workload.
Stepnohorsk MLD (00:00Z): Execution assumed operational. UAF must now treat this as contact imminent.

Factor	Assessment	Confidence	Justification
RF Main Effort (Stepnohorsk)	Ground Assault Initiated	HIGH	Complete synchronization of diplomatic failure (Whitkoff departure), IO justification, and tactical fixation efforts adhere perfectly to the MLCOA timeline.
RF Fixation Efforts	Sustained and Dispersed	HIGH	Confirmed KAB activity in Donetsk and UAV activity in Chernihiv demonstrates sustained multi-axis pressure designed to fix UAF reserves.
UAF 5th Brigade Posture	Immediate Defense Transition	HIGH	Forces are at maximum readiness and must now transition from passive preparation to active defense execution.

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (IPB Step 2)

A. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action RF Intent is confirmed: Achieve rapid penetration of the Stepnohorsk defenses immediately following the conclusion of the diplomatic window.

Synchronization: RF achieved precise synchronization across all domains. The TASS confirmation of Ushakov's statement (23:46Z) seals the informational justification immediately preceding the kinetic launch.
New Tactical Indicator: The lack of confirmed massed artillery fires (CR-1) at 23:45Z, as previously predicted, suggests the RF C2 may be utilizing one of two adaptations:
1. "Cold Launch": Reliance on continuous KAB and precision fire rather than a traditional heavy preparation phase, maximizing surprise.
2. Stealth/EMCON: An extremely short, tightly controlled preparation phase (e.g., 5-7 minutes) initiated precisely at 23:55Z, aimed at denying UAF time for counter-battery fire execution (CR-18).

B. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations No deviation from the overall strategy of utilizing IO and fixation to mask the Stepnohorsk main effort. The lack of confirmation on CR-1 (massed artillery) is the most critical unknown influencing immediate friendly response.

C. Logistics and Sustainment Status Status remains CRITICAL. RF has the confirmed sustainment capacity for high-intensity operations exceeding 72 hours.

D. Command and Control Effectiveness C2 effectiveness is assessed as HIGH. The complex, time-sensitive coordination across diplomatic, IO, and kinetic domains suggests disciplined and centralized control (Vostok Group / RF General Staff).

3. FRIENDLY FORCES (IPB Step 3)

A. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness The 5th Assault Brigade must now assume contact has been made or is seconds away. All pre-assault disruption recommendations are now moot if not already executed. The focus shifts entirely to tactical defense and survivability.

B. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks

Setback (Strategic): The confirmed cancellation of the Kyiv meeting for Whitkoff/Kushner severely undercuts the UAF strategy to use diplomatic continuity to counter RF coercion.
Intelligence Gap/Critical Judgment: The status of CR-18 (BDA of Zelyony Gai disruptive fires) remains the single most critical unknown determining the likelihood of RF penetration success. If UAF fires were executed successfully, the assault will be disorganized; if not, the 37th GMRB will likely launch at near-full strength.

C. Resource Requirements and Constraints

Anti-Armor/Counter-Mobility: Immediate requirement to dedicate all assets to halting the expected "Kuryer" UGV breach attempts.
C2 Protection: Critical requirement to maintain robust AD coverage over C2 nodes, anticipating the MDCOA C2 strike coinciding with the initial ground chaos.

4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (IPB Step 4)

A. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns The RF narrative has achieved its immediate objective: framing the Stepnohorsk offensive as a necessary kinetic response after diplomacy failed.

Key Narrative: TASS report (23:46Z) stating Whitkoff and Kushner will not travel to Kyiv directly undermines UAF strategic communications, reinforcing the RF message that high-level support for Ukraine is collapsing. This gives RF a significant IO advantage coinciding with the ground assault.
Noise: The TASS report on domestic accessibility laws (23:39Z) is assessed as high-volume, low-relevance noise to dilute the informational environment.

B. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors UAF command must be prepared to aggressively counter the negative strategic IO impact of the canceled Kyiv meeting, linking the RF diplomatic failure directly to the immediate, desperate kinetic escalation at Stepnohorsk.

C. International Support and Diplomatic Developments The diplomatic track (Dublin/Kyiv) is momentarily broken. The outcome of the next 72 hours at Stepnohorsk will entirely determine the future posture of international support and the possibility of reviving negotiations.

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (IPB Step 5)

The kinetic phase has begun (or is initiating now). Attention must immediately shift to the tactical execution timeline and the MDCOA.

COA	Description	Trigger/Timeline	Confidence
MLCOA (Stepnohorsk MLD Execution)	RF Vostok Group initiates the 37th GMRB armored assault on schedule (00:00Z). Initial preparatory fires are highly compressed or conducted via KAB saturation, followed immediately by UGV/armor breach attempt.	First detection of kinetic contact in the forward defense area (confirmed UGV engagement or heavy armor penetration).	HIGH
MDCOA (Decapitation Strike)	RF executes high-speed precision missile strike (Iskander/Kalibr) targeting UAF 5th Assault Brigade HQs/C2 nodes between 00:00Z and 00:15Z, coinciding with the ground assault chaos.	Confirmed track detection of inbound high-speed missiles targeting known C2 coordinates (e.g., Novomykolaivka area).	HIGH
ALCOA (Significant Delay/Halt)	RF delays the assault by 2+ hours due to catastrophic internal failure (logistics breakdown, communications failure) or devastating, confirmed BDA from unconfirmed UAF pre-emptive fires.	No kinetic activity reported at Stepnohorsk NLT 00:30Z.	LOW

6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS AND COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS

The requirement has shifted from pre-emptive confirmation to immediate tactical assessment (BDA and C2 protection).

Priority	Gap Description	Collection Requirement (CR)	Confidence Assessment
PRIORITY 1 (IMINT/HUMINT)	Confirmation of MLD Initiation and Immediate Assessment of Penetration. Where exactly did the 37th GMRB attack? Is the UGV threat realized?	CR-1 (URGENT/PERSISTENT): Immediate, granular reporting from 5th Assault Brigade forward observation posts and FPV teams on RF axis of advance and type of assets engaged (UGVs, tanks, APCs). Report first armor engagement NLT 00:05Z.	HIGH
PRIORITY 2 (FRIENDLY BDA)	Effectiveness of Pre-emptive Fires. Were the urgent long-range fires against Zelyony Gai (CR-18) executed, and did they cause attrition?	CR-18 (IMMEDIATE INTERNAL): Final status report from UAF Fire Support Command (J3) confirming expenditure and initial BDA. This BDA estimate is critical for reserve commitment decisions.	HIGH
PRIORITY 3 (TECHINT/AD)	C2 Strike Warning. Detection and tracking of high-speed ballistic/cruise missiles targeting operational depth C2 nodes.	CR-16 (Immediate Intercept): Strategic AD assets must report confirmed tracking/engagement of any hostile high-speed air contacts targeting C2 nodes immediately upon detection (T-5 minutes warning).	HIGH

7. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS

The defense must execute immediate, decisive tactical actions to survive the initial breach attempt and prevent command paralysis.

INITIATE COUNTER-MOBILITY PROTOCOLS (J3 – Engineering/Forward Units)
- Action: All forward units (5th Assault Brigade) must assume "Kuryer" UGV breach attempts are underway. Immediate deployment of reserve FPV teams and dedicated sniper/machine-gun teams to zero-in on identified UGV approach corridors. Do not wait for heavy armor contact; prioritize UGV destruction.
- Effect: Halts the breach operation at the mine belt, forcing 37th GMRB assets to halt and exposing them to concentrated anti-armor fire (Javelin, Stugna).
ACTIVATE C2 HARDENING (J6/J3 – Force Protection)
- Action: IMMEDIATE DEGRADATION/DECEPTION OF C2 SIGNATURE. C2 nodes must execute immediate EMCON (Emission Control) protocols and disperse. Deploy active decoys and rapidly cycle designated command frequency sets. All AD units must be placed on maximum alert for ballistic/cruise missile tracks targeting operational depth (MDCOA).
- Effect: Mitigates the high probability of a C2 decapitation strike coinciding with the chaos of the initial ground assault.
IGNORE FIXATION EFFORTS (J3 – Force Management)
- Action: Reiterate orders: The UAV tracks in Chernihiv and KABs in Donetsk are secondary. NO REDEPLOYMENT OF AD INTERCEPTORS OR RESERVE ARMOR away from the Zaporizhzhia axis, unless C2 determines the Northern threat is transitioning from fixation to a full-scale breakthrough effort (LOW probability).
- Effect: Ensures all critical resources remain focused on the decisive kinetic point at Stepnohorsk.

//END OF SITREP//

Situation Report