Sitrep 2025-12-02 23:34:27

MILITARY INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (SITREP)

TIME: 2025-12-02 23:34Z SUBJECT: FINAL WARNING: STEPNOHORSK MLD EXECUTION IMMINENT (T-MINUS 26 MINUTES). DIPLOMATIC COVER CONCLUDED.

1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (IPB Step 1)

A. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain The Stepnohorsk Salient (Zaporizhzhia Axis) remains the focal point. RF Main Effort is leveraging the proximity of the confirmed staging area at Zelyony Gai to the Line of Contact (LOC). The most critical terrain features for UAF are the survivability of the forward mine belt and the integrity of the 5th Assault Brigade’s Brigade Tactical Group (BTG) assembly areas.

B. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations Night conditions favor RF maneuver and thermal optics advantage. Ground conditions are stable, facilitating rapid heavy armor movement. Cloud cover remains suitable for high-altitude KAB (Guided Aerial Bomb) delivery.

C. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures RF operations have shifted definitively into the immediate execution phase following the cessation of deep strikes and the conclusion of the diplomatic theater. Residual Shahed/UAV activity has been detected in Sumy and Kharkiv Oblasts, serving as a distraction or final reconnaissance screen to fix Northern UAF reserves.

Factor	Assessment	Confidence	Justification
RF Main Effort (Stepnohorsk)	Launch Imminent (T-26 Minutes)	HIGH	Deep strike mask and diplomatic cover (Whitkoff departure) sequence is concluded and synchronized.
RF Supporting Fires (North/East)	Residual Fixation/Reconnaissance	MEDIUM	New UAV tracks in Sumy/Kharkiv are likely secondary efforts to prevent reserve redeployment.
UAF 5th Brigade Posture	Max Alert/Final Readiness.	HIGH	No reports of system failure or dislodgement, but under extreme time pressure for kinetic pre-emption.

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (IPB Step 2)

A. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action RF Intent is zero-sum: Achieve penetration of the Stepnohorsk defenses before 0100Z.

Synchronization: RF achieved near-perfect multi-domain synchronization. The strategic distraction (Deep Strike/Diplomacy) ended precisely at the planned point for the ground assault to commence (NLT 0000Z).
Technological Focus: The 37th GMRB remains reliant on the "Kuryer" UGVs to rapidly breach the minefields. Artillery support remains overwhelming (SAR Score 29.50).
New Intelligence: The diplomatic maneuver is complete. The departure of US Envoy Whitkoff (23:05Z) means RF has lost its defensive shield of high-level diplomatic activity and is now fully committed to the kinetic outcome at Stepnohorsk.

B. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations No tactical changes observed since the 23:00Z report, confirming adherence to the pre-planned, tightly compressed execution timeline. The RF decision to expend UAVs in the North (Sumy/Kharkiv) simultaneously with the Stepnohorsk readiness signals an adaptation aimed at maximizing UAF C2 workload and AD dissipation during the critical assault window.

C. Logistics and Sustainment Status Logistics status remains CRITICAL. RF has the confirmed ammunition and fuel capacity (260th Central Rocket Artillery Base) for high-intensity penetration operations lasting a minimum of 72 hours.

D. Command and Control Effectiveness C2 effectiveness is assessed as HIGH. The rapid, synchronized phase transition across diplomatic, strategic fire, and ground maneuver domains demonstrates robust and disciplined command authority (Vostok Group / RF General Staff).

3. FRIENDLY FORCES (IPB Step 3)

A. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness The 5th Assault Brigade and supporting elements are in the final countdown to contact. Focus must be maintained solely on the Zaporizhzhia axis despite secondary threats (UAVs in the North). Readiness depends heavily on the successful execution of pre-assault disruption fires.

B. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks

Success: UAF successfully managed the strategic deep strike without catastrophic loss of C2 or AD capacity in the immediate combat zone.
Intelligence Gap/Critical Judgment: The crucial factor is whether the high-priority recommendation (23:00Z) to execute pre-emptive long-range fires against Zelyony Gai staging areas was completed between 23:00Z and 23:34Z. Failure to execute these fires significantly increases the likelihood of a rapid RF breach.

C. Resource Requirements and Constraints

Time: The overwhelming constraint (T-26 minutes until estimated MLD launch).
Long-Range Fires: Must be prioritized immediately if not yet expended.
AD Discipline: AD assets must resist the urge to chase distraction UAVs in the North and remain dedicated to Stepnohorsk defense.

4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (IPB Step 4)

A. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns The IO campaign is now pivoting from 'diplomatic process' to 'military justification.'

RF Narrative Shift: Presidential Advisor Ushakov's summary of the Putin-Whitkoff meeting (23:16Z) provides the necessary content for RF state media (TASS) to frame the imminent Stepnohorsk offensive as a necessary response to alleged intransigence or lack of progress in negotiations.
Diversionary IO: The TASS report on Georgia (23:04Z) is assessed as low-effort strategic noise designed to muddy the informational waters globally.

B. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors Public sentiment in the operational area is now entirely dependent on the immediate outcome of the Stepnohorsk defense. Resilience hinges on clear communication that UAF remains focused and capable despite the strategic pressure from Moscow.

C. International Support and Diplomatic Developments The failure of the Moscow round, signaled by Whitkoff's departure (23:05Z), validates the intelligence assessment that RF intended to use the diplomatic cover only up until the moment of kinetic commitment. The burden is now entirely military; the diplomatic track (Dec 3rd meeting) will only be salvaged if the Stepnohorsk defense holds.

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (IPB Step 5)

The operational situation is deteriorating rapidly. The probability of the MLCOA launching on time is now near certainty.

COA	Description	Trigger/Timeline	Confidence
MLCOA (Imminent MLD Execution)	RF Vostok Group initiates the Stepnohorsk MLD (37th GMRB armored assault) on schedule. Artillery prep and counter-battery fire begins NLT 23:45Z, followed by UGV/armor breach NLT 00:00Z.	First detection of massed artillery (SAR score spike in Zelyony Gai area) and confirmed movement of heavy armor on thermal/ISR feeds.	HIGH
MDCOA (Decapitation Strike)	RF executes high-speed precision missile strike (Iskander/Kalibr) targeting UAF 5th Assault Brigade HQs/C2 nodes between 23:45Z and 00:00Z, coinciding with the heaviest concentration of KAB strikes/artillery.	Detection of inbound high-speed tracks targeting coordinates behind the immediate LOC (e.g., Novomykolaivka area).	HIGH
ALCOA (Delayed Probing Attack)	RF delays the full 37th GMRB assault due to confirmed, successful UAF disruption fires against Zelyony Gai, and instead conducts only a limited, mechanized probing attack to test the minefield/anti-armor response.	Confirmed BDA of Zelyony Gai showing 40%+ attrition of armored vehicle concentrations.	LOW

6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS AND COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS

The focus remains entirely on confirming the immediate physical movement of the RF main assault force.

Priority	Gap Description	Collection Requirement (CR)	Confidence Assessment
PRIORITY 1 (IMINT/SIGINT)	Confirmation of MLD Initiation. Has the 37th GMRB armor begun movement from Zelyony Gai into final assault formations? Immediate confirmation of artillery start time.	CR-1 (URGENT/PERSISTENT): Persistent overhead ISR/thermal sweeps on the Dobropilsky/Zelyony Gai staging areas. Report first contact/launch indication NLT 23:40Z.	HIGH (Requirement Priority)
PRIORITY 2 (FRIENDLY BDA)	Effectiveness of Pre-emptive Fires. Were the urgent long-range fires against Zelyony Gai executed? What was the BDA result?	CR-18 (IMMEDIATE INTERNAL): Report from UAF Fire Support Command (J3) confirming expenditure and initial BDA estimates for Zelyony Gai targets (23:00Z - 23:30Z window).	HIGH (Requirement Priority)
PRIORITY 3 (TECHINT/AD)	C2 Strike Warning. Detection and tracking of high-speed ballistic/cruise missiles targeting operational depth C2 nodes.	CR-16 (Immediate Intercept): Dedicated AD radar (Patriot/NASAMS) coverage maintained over known 5th Assault Brigade C2 and major logistics hubs.	HIGH (Requirement Priority)

7. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS

The time for deliberation is over. Immediate action must be taken in the next 10 minutes to disrupt the RF timeline.

MAXIMIZE DISRUPTIVE FIRES (J3 – Fire Support)
- Action: If pre-emptive fires against Zelyony Gai (per 23:00Z recommendation) have not yet been executed, EXECUTE THEM NOW. Use all available MLRS/HIMARS assets against the coordinates provided for the 37th GMRB staging area, focusing specifically on command vehicles and fuel/ammo dumps.
- Effect: Maximize organizational friction and physical attrition in the 37th GMRB before they cross the LOC, delaying the 0000Z assault.
IMMEDIATE ANTI-UGV ENGAGEMENT (J3 – Engineering/Forward Units)
- Action: All forward units (5th Assault Brigade) must be notified of the IMMINENT THREAT posed by "Kuryer" UGVs. Shift tactical ROE to prioritize UGV destruction (via FPV, concentrated heavy machine-gun fire, or demolition charges) the moment they are sighted. UGVs must not breach the primary mine belt.
- Effect: Preserves the defensive integrity of the minefield, forcing 37th GMRB mechanized assets to halt and exposing them to UAF anti-armor fires.
AD DISCIPLINE AND ALERT (J6/J3 – Force Protection)
- Action: IGNORE SECONDARY UAV TRACKS. AD commanders (Sumy/Kharkiv) must be ordered to rely on MANPADS/light fire groups for mop-up. Strategic AD (Patriot/NASAMS/IRIS-T) must remain fixed on Stepnohorsk C2 defense and KAB interdiction, anticipating the high probability of the MDCOA C2 strike between 23:45Z and 00:00Z.
- Effect: Ensures high-value AD capacity is available when the critical C2 strike (MDCOA) occurs during the initial breach chaos.

//END OF SITREP//

Situation Report