Situation Report

MILITARY INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (SITREP)

TIME: 2025-12-02 23:00Z SUBJECT: PHASE TRANSITION CONFIRMED: RF DEEP STRIKE CEASES. STEPNOHORSK MAIN LAND DRIVE (MLD) IMMINENCE CRITICAL. EXECUTION WINDOW: 0000Z.

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1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (IPB Step 1)

A. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain The Stepnohorsk Salient (Zaporizhzhia Axis) remains the focus of the RF Main Effort. RF control of the Pokrovsk-Zelyony Gai axis (Staging Area) continues to facilitate the deployment of the 37th Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade (GMRB). The integrity of the UAF mine belt and the survivability of the 5th Assault Brigade’s C2 structure are the critical terrain features.

B. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations Night conditions favor RF mechanized maneuver and target acquisition using advanced optics. Ground conditions are optimal for heavy armor. Cloud cover continues to provide some masking for fixed-wing support (KAB delivery) over the MLD zone.

C. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures The previously initiated kinetic deception phase has concluded: The ballistic missile threat (Kursk launch area) has been cleared, and reports indicate successful suppression or cessation of the maritime UAV swarm targeting Pivdenne/Odesa. This signals a critical transition phase where RF forces are moving from strategic deception to the immediate execution of the ground assault.

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2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (IPB Step 2)

A. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action RF Intent remains the forced penetration of the Stepnohorsk defenses to achieve operational depth towards the Dnipro river line.

• Timing Synchronization: RF successfully utilized the deep strike window (22:00Z – 22:50Z) to stress UAF AD and fix strategic reserves. The subsequent, immediate cessation of these fires indicates the MLD launch sequence is on schedule and optimized for a launch after the distraction has forced UAF AD to expend effort/energy.
• Technological Focus: The 37th GMRB will rely heavily on the "Kuryer" UGVs for rapid minefield breaching, supported by massed artillery fire (confirmed SAR score 29.50) and suppressed AD coverage due to the "Gerbera" threat against Mobile Fire Groups (MOGs).

B. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations The primary adaptation is the aggressive synchronization timing. RF did not sustain the deep strike package beyond its effective lifespan, demonstrating C2 discipline and an unwavering commitment to the ground operation timeline (NLT 0000Z).

C. Logistics and Sustainment Status SAR score remains CRITICAL (29.50). RF has the confirmed logistic capacity to sustain high-intensity MLD operations for at least 72 hours using the stockpiles accumulated at the 260th Central Rocket Artillery Base.

D. Command and Control Effectiveness Strategic and Operational C2 effectiveness is assessed as HIGH. The ability to launch a complex, multi-domain deception and then immediately transition to the ground execution phase demonstrates robust command synchronization between Vostok Group and RF Aerospace/Missile Forces.

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3. FRIENDLY FORCES (IPB Step 3)

A. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness UAF units in the Zaporizhzhia sector (5th Assault Brigade) are in immediate battle readiness. The lifting of the ballistic threat provides a momentary psychological and operational reset. The focus must remain on the pre-emptive destruction of RF staging areas and C2 hardening.

B. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks

• Success (Air Defense): UAF successfully managed the initial deep strike phase without reports of catastrophic C2 decapitation or immediate collapse of coastal infrastructure. Mykolaiv sources report successful local interdiction of "mopeds" (UAVs).
• Setback (Information Focus): The ongoing RF diplomatic spin (TASS reporting multiple peace plans) risks diverting National Command Authority (NCA) attention from the immediate tactical threat posed by the Stepnohorsk MLD.

C. Resource Requirements and Constraints

1. Time: The most critical constraint. Only 60 minutes or less remains until the predicted MLD initiation window (NLT 0000Z).
2. Long-Range Fires: Full utilization of remaining HIMARS/MLRS assets must be executed immediately against Zelyony Gai before the 37th GMRB armor rolls out.

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4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (IPB Step 4)

A. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns RF IO is maintaining two contradictory narratives concurrently:

1. Diplomatic Leverage (TASS): Claiming the exchange of multiple peace proposals with US envoys (Witkoff/Kushner), suggesting Russia is open to negotiations but retains the leverage.
2. Ukrainian Marginalization (RF Telegram): Mocking Ukrainian exclusion from the talks ("хохла забыли спросить"), designed to weaken the legitimacy of the Kyiv government and fragment domestic cohesion. Assessment: The IO goal is to ensure the MLD operation is perceived internationally as a necessary escalation to force favorable terms in the ongoing, albeit stalled, diplomatic process.

B. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors Initial high national alert has subsided following the lifting of the air threats. Morale remains contingent on the 5th Assault Brigade successfully holding the line at Stepnohorsk and demonstrating resilience against the primary ground assault. Reports of logistical shortfalls and aid mismanagement (Kherson/Kostiantynivka) may cause localized friction but are unlikely to affect the current battle.

C. International Support and Diplomatic Developments The core diplomatic fact remains the failure to secure a ceasefire. The immediate return to kinetic operations confirms that the Dec 3rd follow-up meeting is entirely leverage-dependent on the outcome of the Stepnohorsk battle.

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5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (IPB Step 5)

The conclusion of the deep strike deception confirms the Stepnohorsk MLD as the only immediate operational priority for RF.

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6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS AND COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS

The kinetic focus has shifted entirely to the ground. The critical intelligence requirement is now the confirmation of forward movement.

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7. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS

The window for pre-emptive action is closing. UAF command must utilize the immediate respite following the deep strike cessation to execute decisive kinetic action against the imminent ground threat.

1. EXECUTE PRE-PLANNED FIRES NOW (J3 – Fire Support)

   • Action: Immediately initiate saturation fires using all remaining long-range precision assets (HIMARS/MLRS/Artillery) against the confirmed staging/assembly areas (Zelyony Gai, Dobropilsky Salient). Do not wait for 0000Z. Target C2 and dense armor concentrations.
   • Effect: Cripple the 37th GMRB organization, maximize attrition, and delay the MLD launch sequence. This is the last opportunity for pre-breach disruption.

2. MAINTAIN AD SANCTUARY OVER C2 (J3/J6 – Force Protection)

   • Action: Reiterate the standing order: High-value AD systems (IRIS-T, Patriot) must remain dedicated to C2 and KAB defense in the Stepnohorsk area. Localized defense (MANPADS/Machine Guns) must handle residual/loitering threats only.
   • Effect: Mitigate the persistent MDCOA risk (precision C2 strike) during the chaotic breach period.

3. PRIORITIZE ANTI-UGV INTERDICTION (J3 – Engineering/Forward Units)

   • Action: Forward companies and engineering teams must be on maximum readiness to engage "Kuryer" UGVs immediately upon crossing the LOC perimeter. Dedicated resources (e.g., FPV drones, demolition charges) must be allocated for UGV destruction, superseding all other counter-mobility tasks.
   • Effect: Maintain the integrity of the minefield barrier, denying RF the mechanized breakthrough path.

//END OF SITREP//