Sitrep 2025-12-02 22:04:26

MILITARY INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (SITREP)

TIME: 2025-12-02 22:04Z SUBJECT: STEPNOHORSK MLD EXECUTION WINDOW CONFIRMED OPEN. DIPLOMATIC COVER REMOVED. THREAT LEVEL REMAINS CRITICAL. IMMEDIATE KINETIC RESPONSE REQUIRED.

1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (IPB Step 1)

A. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain The operational center of gravity remains the Stepnohorsk Salient (Zaporizhzhia Axis). The RF Main Land Drive (MLD) is expected from the east, leveraging the established positions along the Zelyony Gai—Dobropilsky axis.

Fact (RF Consolidation): RF channels continue to post operational maps confirming successful consolidation and control of the Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmeysk) area (22:01Z).
Judgment: This confirms the strategic shift of RF reserves and fire support southwards, maximizing the threat density facing the 5th Assault Brigade. The RF now possesses the freedom of action to commit maximum effort to the Stepnohorsk breakthrough attempt without significant risk to its Northern flank.
Key Terrain: The approach routes into Stepnohorsk from Dobropilsky remain critical and are the assumed axis of advance for the 37th GMRB armored spearhead.

B. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations Low visibility conditions persist (night operations), favoring RF maneuver elements utilizing thermal/night vision optics and "Kuryer" UGV assets for breaching. Ground conditions support heavy mechanized movement.

C. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures The political constraint (Moscow talks) has been fully removed with no resulting compromise or ceasefire (21:57Z). The RF assault clock is running, initiated at 21:33Z. UAF is currently 31 minutes into the predicted MLD initiation window (N+0 to N+60 minutes).

Factor	Assessment	Confidence
RF Main Effort Status	Immediate Pre-Execution (Awaiting Launch Order)	HIGH
RF Strategic Constraint	DIPLOMATIC CONSTRAINT: REMOVED	HIGH
UAF 5th Brigade Posture	Max Alert, Implementing HARP-1 Protocols	HIGH

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (IPB Step 2)

A. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action RF Intent is now unequivocally kinetic: leverage the tactical shock of the MLD to force immediate diplomatic concessions from the US/proxies during follow-up meetings (Dec 3rd). RF Foreign Policy Advisor Ushakov confirmed that no territorial compromise was reached and that the "territorial question" was discussed (21:56Z, 22:01Z).

RF Kinetic Timing: The synchronization of the talks' failure with the MLD launch window indicates RF is using the assault as a deliberate, high-stakes coercive tool.

B. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations No new tactical changes observed in the last 30 minutes, but the sustained deployment of "Gerbera" anti-MOG munitions (previous reports) and "Kuryer" UGVs remains the defining tactical shift, designed to neutralize UAF SHORAD and counter-mobility defenses.

C. Logistics and Sustainment Status SAR score remains CRITICAL (29.50). RF is logistically ready to sustain multi-day high-intensity saturation fires and mechanized assault operations in the Stepnohorsk sector. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

D. Command and Control Effectiveness Strategic C2 (Synchronization) remains HIGHLY EFFECTIVE. RF tactical commanders are awaiting the final order to launch the MLD. The high-level post-talk signaling suggests the order will come directly from the Kremlin to the Vostok Group C2. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

3. FRIENDLY FORCES (IPB Step 3)

A. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness UAF 5th Assault Brigade is positioned for defense. The immediate priority is ensuring C2 redundancy and survivability against the MDCOA (C2 Decapitation Strike). The delay in the RF MLD initiation (31 minutes since talks ended) provides a limited, critical window for final hardening measures.

B. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks

Success (Diplomatic/Morale): Denmark has formalized increased military-industrial cooperation (21:37Z). This provides a valuable counter-narrative to the negative reports surrounding Italian aid and alleged US aid delays.
Setback (Deep Strike Risk): Detection of UAVs/UAS over eastern Poltavshchyna (21:39Z) confirms RF continues to apply pressure/fix UAF air defense assets far from the Stepnohorsk main effort.

C. Resource Requirements and Constraints

Time: The critical constraint is the narrow window to integrate the new IRIS-T system and complete C2 hardening protocols (EMCON/Decoy activation).
Ammunition: High consumption rate for Pre-Planned Defensive Fires (PDFs) will necessitate continuous replenishment planning, even as the MLD threat approaches.

4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (IPB Step 4)

A. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns RF IO aims to convey mixed messages:

External: The talks were "productive" (Dmitriev) and "constructive" (Ushakov) (21:41Z, 21:55Z), suggesting the US track is viable and RF is amenable to discussion.
Internal/Coercive: Simultaneously, Ushakov confirms no compromise was reached, particularly on territorial issues (21:57Z, 22:01Z).

Judgment: The net effect is strategic signaling: Russia is talking, but only kinetic success will alter its territorial demands. The impending MLD is intended to validate this military-first strategy.

B. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors Domestic focus shifts entirely to the front line. Leveraging the positive Denmark cooperation news (21:37Z) is crucial to offset the ambiguity of the Moscow talks and the ongoing kinetic threat.

C. International Support and Diplomatic Developments The core diplomatic fact is the failure to achieve a peace pause or operational agreement. Witkoff's immediate departure to the US Embassy (21:42Z) suggests rapid internal consultation is required before the Dec 3rd follow-up meeting.

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (IPB Step 5)

The analysis confirms the previous MLCOA remains the most probable due to the strategic clock running out and the failure of diplomatic containment.

COA	Description	Trigger/Timeline	Confidence
MLCOA (Immediate Kinetic Escalation)	RF Vostok Group initiates the Stepnohorsk MLD, utilizing high-volume artillery preparation followed by armored penetration (37th GMRB) from the Dobropilsky axis, supported by "Kuryer" UGV breach elements. MLD commencement is expected within the next 60 minutes (N+31 to N+90 minutes).	Confirmed large-scale artillery/rocket fire initiation followed by thermal detection of mass armored vehicle movement along approach routes.	HIGH
MDCOA (C2 Decapitation Strike)	RF executes a high-speed precision strike (Iskander/Kalibr) on UAF 5th Assault Brigade HQs/C2 nodes concurrent with or immediately preceding the MLD launch to ensure maximum operational confusion during the critical breach phase.	Detection of multiple high-speed inbound tracks (ballistic/cruise) confirmed on radar (expected N+5 minutes of MLD start).	HIGH
Contingency COA (ALCOA) (Immediate RF Public Ultimatum)	RF issues a highly publicized statement leveraging the assault to demand immediate territorial concessions (e.g., Zaporizhzhia Oblast surrender) to shape the Dec 3rd talks agenda.	RF state media (RT, TASS) broadcasting a pre-recorded address or high-level statement within one hour (NLT 23:00Z).	MEDIUM

6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS AND COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS

The critical gaps are focused on tactical confirmation and AD readiness.

Priority	Gap Description	Collection Requirement (CR)	Confidence Assessment
PRIORITY 1 (IMINT/SIGINT)	Confirmation of MLD Initiation. Has the 37th GMRB armor begun movement (Ex: Engines running, forming columns)?	CR-1 (Urgent Rerun): Persistent overhead ISR/thermal sweeps on the Dobropilsky/Zelyony Gai staging areas. Report vehicle count and movement vectors every 10 minutes.	HIGH (Requirement Priority)
PRIORITY 2 (TECHINT/C2)	Operational Status of New IRIS-T. Is the new system online, integrated into the UAF AD picture, and tasked for MDCOA mitigation?	CR-5 (Immediate): Require verification report from UAF Air Defense Command (ADC) detailing IRIS-T readiness level and its assigned protective coverage area (specifically 5th Brigade C2 nodes).	HIGH (Requirement Priority)
PRIORITY 3 (HUMINT/EW)	"Gerbera" EW Vulnerability Status. Have protocols been developed/implemented to counter the frequency band or guidance system of the "Gerbera" loitering munition?	CR-8 (New): HUMINT tasking to EW/J6 cells to confirm the activation status of the 'HARP-1' EW countermeasure protocols.	MEDIUM (Requirement Priority)

7. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS

The tactical imperative is speed, resilience, and early disruption. Execution of pre-planned responses is paramount.

EXECUTE PRE-PLANNED FIRES NOW (J3 – Fire Support)
- Action: Immediately transition from authorization to Execution of all first-wave Pre-Planned Defensive Fires (PDFs) targeting the confirmed concentration areas (Dobropilsky/Zelyony Gai). Do not wait for visual confirmation of the MLD; utilize time-sensitive targeting based on the failure of the Moscow talks.
- Effect: Maximize disruption and induce chaos in the 37th GMRB formation before the breach attempt begins.
ENSURE IRIS-T AD COVERAGE (J3/J6 – Force Protection)
- Action: Confirm the immediate deployment and operational readiness of the new IRIS-T system. Prioritize its target list to defend against the MDCOA (High-Speed Missile Threats) targeting C2 nodes, compensating for the systemic loss of MOG coverage.
MAXIMIZE COUNTER-MOBILITY (J3 – Engineering)
- Action: Direct Anti-UGV/Engineering teams to forward positions with priority on the destruction of "Kuryer" mine-clearing UGVs. Neutralizing the Kuryer is key to stalling the mechanized penetration.
STRATEGIC COMMUNICATIONS (NCA/J7 – Information Warfare)
- Action: Immediately disseminate a strategic communications package that links the RF MLD initiation to the diplomatic failure to compromise on territory. Simultaneously, publicly highlight the new Danish cooperation to reinforce the narrative of continued international technological support, countering RF disinformation about Western abandonment.

//END OF SITREP//

Situation Report