Sitrep 2025-12-02 21:34:30

MILITARY INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (SITREP)

TIME: 2025-12-02 21:34Z SUBJECT: STEPNOHORSK MLD: DIPLOMATIC COERCION ENDS, KINETIC WINDOW OPEN. IMMEDIATE RF ASSAULT EXPECTED (N+0 TO N+2 HOURS). ACTIVATE ALL PRE-PLANNED DEFENSIVE FIRES.

1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (IPB Step 1)

A. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain The Stepnohorsk Salient remains the critical operational focus. RF Vostok Group main assault elements are positioned along the Zelyony Gai—Dobropilsky axis.

Fact (RF Claimed Capture): RF sources (Colonelcassad) claim the 37th GMRB has liberated Dobropilsky (21:11Z). This town was previously assessed as a key RF staging area. If confirmed, the RF forward line of troops (FLOT) is now established at the final launch point for the MLD against Stepnohorsk. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM - Requires immediate IMINT verification)
Key Terrain: Control of the Dobropilsky-Zelyony Gai line grants RF direct access to optimal approach routes for a mechanized penetration drive.

B. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations Low light conditions persist, aiding RF movement and infiltration by "Kuryer" UGVs. Ground conditions remain firm enough to support sustained mechanized maneuver. UAF must maximize thermal detection capabilities for interdiction.

C. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures The political hold on the Main Land Drive (MLD) has been lifted by the conclusion of the Putin-Witkoff meeting (21:33Z). The 37th/291st MRRs are assessed to be transitioning from 'Holding in Staging' to 'Execution Phase.' UAF 5th Assault Brigade must be prepared to defend within minutes.

Factor	Assessment	Confidence
Stepnohorsk MLD Status	Imminent Initiation (Trigger Fired)	HIGH
RF Forward Position	Likely Consolidated Control of Dobropilsky	MEDIUM
AD Capability Reinforcement	New IRIS-T system delivered (Deployment Status Unknown)	HIGH

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (IPB Step 2)

A. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action RF INTENTION has shifted from coercive political pressure to achieving immediate, high-impact kinetic success at Stepnohorsk. The primary goal is to achieve an operational breakthrough toward the Dnipro river line, allowing the outcome to be presented as a fait accompli during follow-up negotiations.

B. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations

Operational Tempo: The RF C2 has maintained strict discipline, holding the MLD for over 4.5 hours to synchronize kinetic timing precisely with the conclusion of the Moscow talks. This demonstrates highly centralized strategic command.
Confirmed Forward Staging: The claim of Dobropilsky capture (if confirmed) means the RF assault force is fully integrated into the front line, reducing travel time to the breach points and increasing the velocity of the assault.

C. Logistics and Sustainment Status SAR score of 29.50 (CRITICAL) confirms the 260th Central Rocket Artillery Base has provided sufficient ammunition for the Stepnohorsk saturation fires and sustained MLD support. Logistical readiness remains high for immediate execution.

D. Command and Control Effectiveness RF Strategic C2 (Putin/High Command) is assessed HIGHLY EFFECTIVE in the synchronization phase. Tactical C2 effectiveness will be tested in the immediate execution phase of the complex mechanized/UGV assault.

3. FRIENDLY FORCES (IPB Step 3)

A. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness UAF 5th Assault Brigade and supporting elements are currently at MAX Alert. The successful localized defenses (Orestopil) confirm the viability of decentralized anti-armor tactics. The immediate priority is maintaining C2 integrity under the anticipated high-intensity kinetic phase.

B. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks

Success: Germany delivered another IRIS-T air defense system (21:06Z). This provides a critical, modern SHORAD/MRAD capability that must be immediately deployed to mitigate the strategic risk posed by the "Gerbera" anti-MOG munitions and the predicted MDCOA (C2 decapitation strike).
Setback (Strategic): Reports indicate Italy intends to delay approval of further military aid (21:11Z, 21:22Z), reinforcing the strategic narrative of eroding Western support, aligned with the alleged US aid suspension.

C. Resource Requirements and Constraints The most critical requirements are:

Immediate IRIS-T Integration: Rapid deployment personnel and protocols must be activated to make the new IRIS-T operational within the shortest possible window.
C2 Survivability: Urgent activation of decoys and strict EMCON to protect C2 nodes against the high-speed MDCOA threat.

4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (IPB Step 4)

A. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns RF IO immediately executed a maximalist propaganda campaign following the conclusion of the Moscow talks. Pro-Kremlin channels are mocking US representatives (Witkoff/Kushner), suggesting capitulation and implying RF strategic dominance (21:08Z, 21:30Z). The primary goal is to fracture UAF domestic resolve and demoralize Western partners.

B. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors Domestic morale is highly volatile, shifting from anticipation during the pause to existential stress now that the kinetic trigger is pulled. The negative reports regarding Italian aid compound the sense of isolation.

C. International Support and Diplomatic Developments The primary diplomatic event is concluded. The focus shifts entirely to the result of the talks (which is yet unknown). The negative reports concerning Italian aid must be immediately addressed to counter the RF narrative of collapsing Western unity. A Turkish-owned tanker company halting operations with Russia (21:32Z) provides a minor economic counter-narrative of continued global pressure on Russia.

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (IPB Step 5)

The conclusion of the Putin-Witkoff talks at 21:33Z removes the primary constraint on the RF MLD execution.

COA	Description	Trigger/Timeline	Confidence
MLCOA (Immediate Kinetic Escalation)	RF Vostok Group initiates the Stepnohorsk MLD immediately, utilizing saturation fires, "Kuryer" UGV breach elements, and armored penetration by the 37th GMRB from the Dobropilsky/Zelyony Gai axis. MLD commencement will occur within the hour (N+0 to N+60 minutes).	Confirmed mass artillery and rocket fire initiation along the front line, followed by detection of armor movement.	HIGH
MDCOA (C2 Decapitation Strike)	RF simultaneously executes a high-speed precision strike (Iskander/Kalibr) on UAF 5th Assault Brigade HQs/C2 nodes concurrent with the MLD launch. This is designed to maximize the SHORAD vacuum created by the "Gerbera" suppression of MOGs and induce operational paralysis.	Detection of multiple high-speed, high-altitude inbound tracks concurrent with MLD launch (within N+5 minutes of MLD start).	HIGH
Contingency COA (ALCOA) (Immediate RF Public Ultimatum)	RF High Command broadcasts a rapid public statement immediately detailing maximalist demands tied to the kinetic action (e.g., call for UAF surrender of Zaporizhzhia Oblast within 24 hours), leveraging the strategic shock of the assault.	High-level RF state media announcement (TASS/RIA) within 30 minutes of talks conclusion (NLT 22:05Z).	MEDIUM

6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS AND COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS

The critical nature of the immediate kinetic threat requires a shift in collection priorities from strategic diplomacy to tactical confirmation.

Priority	Gap Description	Collection Requirement (CR)
PRIORITY 1 (IMINT/SIGINT)	Confirmation of RF troop disposition and operational status in Dobropilsky. Verify the claimed capture and assess whether the 37th GMRB is in final assault formation or consolidating control.	CR-1 (Urgent Rerun): Task all available overhead ISR and persistent SIGINT assets (ELINT/COMINT) for immediate, high-resolution sweeps of Dobropilsky, Zelyony Gai, and the Dobropillia salient. Look for thermal signatures of mass troop movement (engines running, exhaust).
PRIORITY 2 (TECHINT/HUMINT)	Status and specific deployment location of the new IRIS-T system. Is it fully integrated into the AD network and tasked for immediate action?	CR-5 (New): HUMINT/TECHINT tasking to UAF Air Defense Command (ADC) to confirm IRIS-T location, operational readiness level, and its assigned target priority list (specifically targeting Iskander/Kalibr inbound tracks).
PRIORITY 3 (HUMINT/STRATINT)	Confirmation of the actual outcome of the Putin-Witkoff talks (beyond RF propaganda). Did they reach any limited agreement or merely exchange maximalist demands?	CR-3 (Revised): Continued HUMINT tasking to US/NATO partner channels regarding specific content of the diplomatic conclusion and anticipated US reaction/messaging.

7. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS

The transition to immediate kinetic threat requires the implementation of defensive protocols and the leveraging of newly acquired capabilities.

EXECUTE PRE-PLANNED FIRES (J3 – Fire Support)
- Authorization: Immediately authorize and execute the first wave of Pre-Planned Defensive Fires (PDFs) on the confirmed (or highly suspected) concentration points and egress routes identified in the Dobropilsky/Zelyony Gai staging areas. Do not wait for visual confirmation of the MLD launch; assume it is underway.
- Targeting: Prioritize targets confirmed in the previous SITREP (logistics hubs, identified 37th GMRB armor concentrations, and known UGV staging points).
ACTIVATE AD/C2 HARDENING PROTOCOL (J6/J3 – Force Protection)
- Immediate IRIS-T Deployment: Rapidly deploy the newly arrived IRIS-T system to cover the immediate rear area of the 5th Assault Brigade HQs/main C2 nodes. This is the only asset immediately capable of mitigating the MDCOA threat (high-speed cruise/ballistic missile strike) and compensating for suppressed MOG coverage.
- MDCOA Countermeasure: Elevate C2 hardening: enforce total EMCON, physically move forward command post personnel to prepared alternative locations, and activate decoy emitter arrays immediately.
COUNTER-MOBILITY PRIORITY (J3 – Engineering)
- Anti-UGV Focus: Task specialized anti-UGV teams to forward positions with explicit instructions to prioritize the destruction of "Kuryer" mine-clearing UGVs. These vehicles are the key enablers for the mechanized breach. Interdicting them early will slow the MLD significantly.
STRATEGIC COMMUNICATION (NCA/J7 – Information Warfare)
- Counter-Narrative Execution: Immediately execute Statement A (Framing the diplomatic failure as Russian intransigence). Simultaneously, publicly acknowledge the receipt of the new IRIS-T system to shift the narrative from Western abandonment (Italian delay) to continued technological reinforcement.

Situation Report