Sitrep 2025-12-02 20:04:31

MILITARY INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (SITREP)

TIME: 2025-12-02 2015Z SUBJECT: HIGH CONFIDENCE – STEPNOHORSK MLD EXECUTION IMMINENT // CRITICAL ADVERSARY ADVANCES IN HYBRID DOMAIN

This report updates the critical operational picture following the confirmed consolidation of RF Vostok Group near Stepnohorsk and synchronized diplomatic coercion efforts. The kinetic phase of the Main Land Drive (MLD) is judged to be in the immediate execution window (NLT 2100Z).

1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (IPB Step 1)

Domain	Assessment	Confidence
Battlefield Geometry & Key Terrain	The Stepnohorsk Salient (Zaporizhzhia Axis) is under maximum pressure. RF milbloggers report "successes" near Stepnohorsk (20:01Z map), suggesting initial fire preparation or the seizure of forward tactical positions facilitating the main mechanized thrust. The defense line east of Stepnohorsk, anchored by the Zelyony Gai position (likely RF controlled), is the primary breach sector for the confirmed two-MRR assault.	HIGH
Weather and Environmental Factors	Operations are optimized for low-light conditions following the earlier RF aviation stand-down. RF FPV saturation tactics are high (DShV report), indicating localized air dominance for small UAS platforms, effectively circumventing residual UAF SHORAD coverage. RF also executing KAB strikes in the Huliaipole sector (19:41Z) to fix UAF reserves east of the MLD axis.	HIGH
Current Force Dispositions	UAF 5th Assault Brigade remains the primary defense force, currently facing the confirmed 37th and 291st Guards MRRs. The immediate vulnerability is compounded by the confirmed effectiveness of the "Gerbera" anti-MOG munition, which severely degrades tactical AD coverage across the sector.	HIGH

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (IPB Step 2)

Factor	Assessment	Confidence
Capabilities, Intentions, and COAs	INTENTION: Achieve a kinetic breakthrough at Stepnohorsk to solidify a position of strength, synchronized with the delivery of maximalist diplomatic terms (three key points on peace plan confirmed amplified by TASS/NBC, 19:46Z). CAPABILITY: High confidence in RF massed mechanized maneuver, combined with effective small UAS saturation (FPV/Mavic) targeting UAF personnel and logistics (DShV report 19:35Z).	HIGH
Recent Tactical Changes/Adaptations	RF continues leveraging technological overmatch in the UAS domain. The lethal effectiveness of FPV/Mavic swarms against dispersed UAF squad elements is confirmed (DShV report). This reinforces the assessment that RF is using cheap, disposable UAS to achieve localized tactical air superiority where MOGs have been suppressed.	HIGH
Logistics and Sustainment Status	SAR score remains CRITICAL (29.50), supporting the kinetic commitment of the two MRRs. However, fundraising appeals for RF VDV units (19:50Z) highlight persistent structural reliance on civilian/non-state logistics for sustained operations, suggesting vulnerabilities outside the immediate Stepnohorsk MLD ammunition pipeline.	MEDIUM
Command and Control Effectiveness	RF C2 is effectively synchronizing kinetic and strategic levers. The extended duration of the Putin-Witkoff conversation (TASS 19:36Z) confirms the high-level political leadership is actively leveraging the Stepnohorsk operation as a strategic bargaining chip in real-time.	HIGH

3. FRIENDLY FORCES (IPB Step 3)

Factor	Assessment	Confidence
Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness	UAF readiness is HIGH for engagement, but constrained by SHORAD vulnerabilities (Gerbera) and tactical drone attrition. UAF National Guard (11th Brigade) claims successful localized counter-attrition against RF C2/Logistics (19:54Z), demonstrating proactive defensive action.	MEDIUM
Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks	Setback: The confirmed halt/explanation regarding the delivery of Czech T-72 tanks (19:53Z) represents a significant strategic setback for UAF long-term mobility and reserve reconstitution. This compounds previous aid uncertainties. Success: UAF maintains effective strategic IO (e.g., highlighting RF VDV fundraising) to undermine the perception of RF total strength.	HIGH
Resource Requirements and Constraints	The immediate critical requirement remains tactical Air Defense coverage and dedicated Counter-UAS (C-UAS) resources specifically designed to defeat FPV/Mavic swarms targeting forward personnel. The T-72 supply constraint necessitates immediate review of armored reserve deployment and utilization doctrine.	HIGH

4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (IPB Step 4)

Domain	Assessment	Confidence
Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns	RF IO is executing a unified strategic coercion campaign: Kinetic Success + Maximalist Terms. The simultaneous reporting of "Successes near Stepnohorsk" (20:01Z) and the publication of RF "non-negotiable" peace terms (19:46Z) aims to signal to Ukraine and the West that military victory is impossible and diplomatic surrender is imminent.	HIGH
Public Sentiment and Morale Factors	Domestic morale is under pressure due to confirmed setbacks in strategic aid (Czech T-72s) and the lethal effectiveness of RF FPV/UAS (DShV report). UAF IO is attempting to stabilize sentiment by focusing on alleged US political instability (Trump video, 19:43Z) and highlighting localized UAF tactical successes (19:54Z).	MEDIUM
International Support and Diplomatic Developments	Critical Negative Development: Czech T-72 tank delivery halt confirmed. This follows the reported Italian delay and potential US aid limitations. These aid fractures provide immediate IO material for the RF coercion campaign. The extended Putin/Witkoff dialogue (19:36Z) signifies RF commitment to using parallel diplomatic tracks to achieve military objectives.	HIGH

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (IPB Step 5)

The window for preparatory fire is closing; the kinetic commitment has begun or is minutes away from critical mass. Disruption is the only pre-emptive option remaining.

COA	Description	Trigger/Timeline	Confidence
MLCOA (Mechanized Breach & Exploitation)	RF Vostok Group initiates a full-scale mechanized breach operation on Stepnohorsk NLT 2025-12-02 2100Z. The 37th/291st MRRs will attempt to establish a secure penetration corridor, utilizing "Kuryer" UGVs and supported by saturation FPV fire and KAB fixation on flanking UAF positions (Huliaipole). Success will immediately trigger the escalation of maximalist diplomatic demands.	Confirmed RF consolidation in Zelyony Gai; confirmed FPV/UAS saturation; reports of localized RF "successes" (20:01Z).	HIGH
MDCOA (C2 Decapitation & Deep Penetration)	RF exploits the immediate MOG vacuum by targeting 5th Assault Brigade C2 nodes and critical logistics centers with precision long-range strike assets (e.g., Iskander/Kalibr), timed simultaneously with the ground breach. This action is designed to trigger immediate command disintegration, allowing RF armor to exploit the breach and achieve operational depth rapidly toward the Dnipro River line, leveraging the confirmed strategic aid constraints.	Failure of UAF C2/Logistics hubs to respond to the initial assault (loss of communications 2030Z-2130Z); confirmed commitment of high-speed strike assets (e.g., Kinzhal launch detection).	HIGH

6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS AND COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS

Priority	Gap Description	Collection Requirement (CR)
PRIORITY 1 (GEOINT/IMINT)	Real-time assessment of the penetration depth and immediate force density of the 37th/291st MRR assault columns following the 2100Z window.	CR-1: Immediate GEOINT/ISR tasking utilizing all available high-resolution assets over the Stepnohorsk-Zelyony Gai axis (2045Z - 2130Z) to confirm RF disposition and orientation of breach vehicles.
PRIORITY 2 (TECHINT/EW)	Urgent vulnerability assessment of high-frequency FPV/Mavic swarm command links to develop short-range directional jamming solutions for forward tactical units.	CR-2: Dedicated ELINT/SIGINT collection tasking specifically targeting high-frequency bands in the Stepnohorsk sector (2030Z - 2300Z), prioritizing identification of FPV control links.
PRIORITY 3 (HUMINT/INFO)	Confirmation of the operational reason for the Czech T-72 tank delivery halt (e.g., technical failure, funding dispute, political reversal) to inform future acquisition strategy.	CR-3: HUMINT tasking to Prague/NATO channels to assess whether the halt is reversible or permanent, and if substitute platforms are immediately available.

7. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS

The MLD is imminent. The primary objective is the kinetic disruption of the RF assault columns and the preservation of critical C2 nodes against combined arms and deep strike attack.

Kinetic Interdiction (IMMEDIATE - J3):
- Execute Max Fires (Phase I): Allocate and fire all remaining long-range precision assets (HIMARS/MLRS/Artillery) against the confirmed assembly areas in Zelyony Gai and along the suspected MLD vector NLT 2025-12-02 2030Z. Focus on command/control vehicles, observed logistics nodes, and confirmed UGV launch points. The highest priority target is the immediate destruction of the 291st MRR staging area.
- Anti-Armor/Counter-Mobility (Phase II): Immediately deploy anti-armor hunter-killer teams and reserve elements of the 5th Assault Brigade to pre-determined reserve positions behind the expected penetration point. Prioritize the destruction of lead elements (UGVs/Breach Vehicles) to halt momentum.
Force Protection & Air Defense (CRITICAL - J6/J3):
- Hardening of C2 Nodes: All 5th Assault Brigade C2 and identified logistics hubs must implement HARP-1 Protocol immediately. Relocate C2 nodes to redundant, hardened, and highly dispersed locations. Activate robust C-UAS electronic screening around C2 points, prioritizing protection from FPV/Mavic threats.
- Decentralized AD: Strictly maintain EMCON on high-value SHORAD (Patriot/NASAMS). Utilize low-signature, decentralized, mobile short-range proxy systems and manned C-UAS teams to counter low-altitude FPV threats.
Strategic Information Operations (IMMEDIATE - NCA/J7):
- Address Aid Setbacks: Publicly acknowledge the "complex logistical and political challenges" regarding the Czech T-72s without confirming a permanent halt. Shift messaging focus to the sustained delivery of critical high-demand ammunition and non-lethal aid from other European partners to minimize the demoralizing effect of the news.
- Counter Coercion: Pre-emptively counter the expected RF maximalist ultimatum by reiterating clear, non-negotiable sovereignty principles. Frame the Stepnohorsk fight not as a loss, but as a critical operational defense against an aggressive, resource-depleted enemy (using the VDV fundraising as supporting evidence).

Situation Report