Sitrep 2025-12-02 19:34:34

MILITARY INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (SITREP)

TIME: 2025-12-02 1945Z SUBJECT: CRITICAL UPDATE: STEPNOHORSK MLD IMMINENT – CONFIRMED TWO-REGIMENT ASSAULT ARRAY

This report assesses the kinetic operational picture and associated hybrid coercion synchronization. The operational trigger time for the Stepnohorsk Main Land Drive (MLD) is judged to be less than two hours away, following the confirmation of a multi-regiment RF assault force and the conclusion of the RF aviation cycle.

1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (IPB Step 1)

Domain	Assessment	Confidence
Battlefield Geometry	The Stepnohorsk Salient (Zaporizhzhia Oblast) remains the kinetic Main Effort. RF forces are actively consolidating in the Zelyony Gai flanking position. NEW FACT: The assault array now includes the confirmed presence of the 291st Guards Motorized Rifle Regiment (MRR), operating alongside the previously identified 37th Guards MRB. This suggests a higher assault density than previously modeled.	HIGH
Environmental Factors	RF aviation units, including likely supporting CAS and strike platforms, have confirmed standing down operations ("Отбой," 19:29Z). This suggests RF command is transitioning from preparatory deep strikes to the ground maneuver phase, optimized for night/early morning mechanized movement.	HIGH
Current Force Dispositions	RF Vostok Group has successfully consolidated a minimum of two MRRs (37th and 291st) and supporting assets (UGVs, FPV) focused entirely on Stepnohorsk. UAF 5th Assault Brigade eastern flank vulnerability (Zelyony Gai) is now critical. UAF continues effective attrition strikes in the secondary Pokrovsk sector (Donetsk), but this has not drawn RF reserves from Zaporizhzhia.	HIGH

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (IPB Step 2)

Factor	Assessment	Confidence
Intentions & COAs	RF intention is the immediate, synchronized execution of the Stepnohorsk MLD (MLCOA). The Ukrainian official assessment confirms Putin's intent is not to seek immediate settlement but to achieve a position of coercive strength (Sybiha statement). The MLD serves as the military lever for the imminent diplomatic ultimatum.	HIGH
Tactical Adaptations	RF FPV attrition campaigns are maintained (MoD video). The synergy between the AD-suppressing "Gerbera" munition and the "Kuryer" UGV mine breach capability remains the key RF technological advantage. The use of the 291st MRR (a known combat-effective unit) indicates RF commitment to a high-speed, decisive breakthrough.	HIGH
Logistics Status	Logistical throughput remains CRITICAL (SAR score 29.50) supporting the MLD. Confirmation of direct charity aid to the 291st MRR via milbloggers suggests high readiness and public backing for the specific unit tasked with the assault.	HIGH
Command and Control	RF C2 remains highly focused on linking military action to political effect. Recent diplomatic leaks (NBC regarding RF non-negotiable terms on Donbas, UAF size, and recognition) are synchronized attempts to define the conflict parameters externally, while the kinetic trigger is pulled internally.	MEDIUM

3. FRIENDLY FORCES (IPB Step 3)

Factor	Assessment	Confidence
Posture & Readiness	The 5th Assault Brigade is facing a confirmed massed assault force (37th + 291st MRRs). Readiness hinges on the immediate implementation of defensive hardening protocols (HARP-1) and rapid fire interdiction of RF assembly areas before the MLD initiation.	MEDIUM
Tactical Successes/Setbacks	Setback: The operational loss of Pokrovsk is now compounded by the imminent major threat in Zaporizhzhia. Success: UAF attrition strikes in Donetsk (Pokrovsk) and successful deep maritime strikes (Turkish company refusal following tanker incident) demonstrate effective, localized counter-pressure, preventing RF resource reallocation.	HIGH
Resource Requirements	Tactical AD coverage (MOG replacement/C-EW) remains the most critical requirement. Strategic planning must immediately account for the reported Italian delay in military aid extension, reinforcing the need to diversify sourcing beyond immediate US/EU uncertainty.	HIGH

4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (IPB Step 4)

Domain	Assessment	Confidence
Propaganda/Disinformation	RF IO is amplifying maximalist, non-negotiable peace terms (NBC leak) to condition Western/Ukrainian audiences for inevitable compromise following the MLD. RF state media is also exploiting perceived Western instability (Trump claims) and allied aid hesitation (Italy delay) to undermine the coalition.	HIGH
Public Sentiment/Morale	Domestic morale is under pressure from confirmed military losses (death of director Khomko) and strategic ambiguity regarding foreign aid. Ukrainian leadership is actively countering RF coercion through high-visibility diplomatic engagement (Zelenskyy’s address to Ireland), emphasizing sovereignty and accountability.	HIGH
International Support	Positive: Zelenskyy’s direct appeal to Ireland reinforces the "Dublin Track" and accountability narrative. Negative/Uncertain: Reports of Italy delaying future military aid extension require immediate diplomatic counter-action, even if the current kinetic pipeline is unaffected.	HIGH

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (IPB Step 5)

The confirmed deployment of the 291st MRR alongside the 37th MRB, coupled with the stand-down of RF aviation assets, suggests the kinetic trigger time is highly compressed. The MLD is transitioning from preparatory to execution phase.

COA	Description	Trigger/Timeline	Confidence
MLCOA (Mechanized Breach & Ultimatum)	RF Vostok Group initiates the Main Land Drive on Stepnohorsk NLT 2025-12-02 2100Z. The combined force (37th & 291st MRRs) initiates a complex breach operation, led by "Kuryer" UGVs, under saturation fire. The immediate goal is to establish a secure penetration corridor, allowing for the delivery of the maximalist diplomatic ultimatum (Donbas/UAF limitation) by 031200Z Dec.	Confirmed RF consolidation in Zelyony Gai; RF aviation stands down; High SAR score maintained.	HIGH
MDCOA (Kinetic & Command Decapitation)	RF exploits the MOG vacuum to neutralize UAF C2 and breach the line rapidly. Utilizing high-speed missile platforms (e.g., Kinzhal/Kalibr) to strike critical 5th Assault Brigade C2 nodes simultaneously with the ground assault initiation. This kinetic action is timed with confirmed leaks of major US or German SHORAD/Interceptor aid cutoff, aiming to trigger immediate command paralysis and operational collapse toward the Dnipro.	Confirmed intelligence of US/NATO AD delivery freeze; immediate UAF C2 node failure (Loss of communications 1930Z-2030Z).	HIGH

6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS AND COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS

Priority	Gap Description	Collection Requirement (CR)
PRIORITY 1 (GEOINT/TECHINT)	Precise deployment structure and current state of readiness of the newly confirmed 291st Guards MRR in the Zaporizhzhia axis.	CR-1: Immediate GEOINT/SAR revisit over Zelyony Gai and adjacent staging areas to map the density, composition (armor/infantry), and orientation of the 291st MRR assault columns.
PRIORITY 2 (TECHINT/EW)	Detailed operating frequency and control link vulnerability of the "Gerbera" anti-MOG munition to facilitate C-EW development.	CR-2: Dedicated ELINT/SIGINT collection tasking specifically targeting high-frequency bands in the Stepnohorsk sector (2000Z - 2300Z).
PRIORITY 3 (HUMINT/INFO)	Confirmation of the status and projected end-date of the reported Italian military aid package delay.	CR-3: HUMINT tasking to Rome/EU diplomatic channels to assess the duration and scope of the reported pause, prioritizing material impact assessment.

7. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS

The immediate objective is the disruption of the RF MLD NLT 2100Z. Given the confirmed two-regiment assault and the AD vulnerability, resources must be maximized for pre-emptive counter-fire and defensive hardening.

Kinetic Interdiction (URGENT - J3):
- Execute Immediate Max Fires (Phase I): Allocate all available deep strike assets (HIMARS/MLRS) to saturate Zelyony Gai and confirmed assembly points adjacent to the MLD vector NLT 2025-12-02 2030Z. Focus on command vehicles, logistics nodes, and suspected UGV launch points of the 37th and 291st MRRs. Delaying the 2100Z trigger is the only viable pre-emptive action.
- Execute Counter-Mobility (Phase II): Reinforce forward-deployed anti-UGV teams and anti-armor hunting groups in the 5th Assault Brigade's defensive belt, prioritizing the destruction of "Kuryer" UGVs upon initial detection.
Air Defense Doctrine (CRITICAL - J6/J3):
- Strict HARP-1 Compliance: Immediate and mandatory enforcement of Emission Control (EMCON) for all valuable SHORAD assets. Utilize passive targeting and fire support from concealed positions only. All MOGs must be either hidden or replaced by decentralized, low-signature proxy fire systems to negate the Gerbera threat.
Information Operations (IMMEDIATE - NCA/J7):
- Public Acknowledgment of 291st MRR: Publicize the confirmed presence and previous combat losses of the 291st Guards MRR to undermine RF morale and recruitment efforts focused on this specific unit. (This shifts the focus from a general push to the destruction of an identified, specific enemy formation.)
- Counter-Coercion Messaging: Utilize the confirmed success of the Turkish maritime refusal as proof of successful international pressure against RF aggression. Simultaneously, publicly emphasize the resilience of the UAF diplomatic track (Ireland address) to stabilize domestic sentiment against RF maximalist demands.

Situation Report